Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
003 FXUS64 KLIX 140512 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1212 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 - Lower rain chances and warmer temps return first half of the week. Heat indices could approach Heat Advisory Criteria. - Stronger easterly winds may result in small craft advisory conditions for the latter half of the week in the coastal waters. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Upper level ridging dominates the pattern for the short term forecast which will result in a slightly drier forecast. Southerly surface winds will help to advect warm and moist air into the region. Some isolated to scattered showers (20-40% PoPs) will be expected daily in the afternoon and early evening hours. These storms are not expected to be severe. For the week as a whole, Tuesday is likely the driest day in terms of storm coverage. Temperatures will continue to be warm with highs in the mid 90s and heat index values in the 103-108 degree range so it will still be warm for this time of year. Be sure to stay hydrated if spending time outdoors and take frequent breaks. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 The disturbance over the Atlantic should be nearing Florida by Thursday night or Friday morning, then entering the Gulf. Today`s medium range operational models are in more agreement regarding the eventual scenario, with both the ECMWF and GFS tracking the low westward to near the southeast Louisiana coast Sunday morning, with the ECMWF somewhat further offshore. Both also then track the system northward across the local area on Monday. There is no real surface low pressure center with this system. Somewhat surprisingly, moisture levels next weekend are forecast to be quite a bit lower than the current weekend, with precipitable water values more frequently in the 50th to 75th percentile range (1.5 to 1.8 inches). Low level lapse rates should be fairly steep, but mid level lapse rates are closer to 6C/km. Should be enough to produce scattered to numerous showers and storms Saturday and Sunday, but don`t yet see signals for a significant heavy rain or severe weather threat. Current expectations are that next weekend won`t be a total washout, but there will likely be interruptions in outdoor activities, and possibly quite a bit of cloud cover. Midweek hot temperatures could linger into Friday before starting to trend downward a bit. What`s likely to be somewhat more noticeable is the lower dew points that the upper ridge to the north at mid week pushes into the area. Much of the area will see dew points fall into the 60s, which will also bring somewhat cooler low temperatures for the weekend. Highs Sunday into early in the following workweek appear as if they may stay below 90 degrees for the first time in quite a while. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. PROB30 groups are in effect at most area airports (except NEW, GPT, and MSY) for tomorrow afternoon for isolated to scattered popup showers/storms that could lower ceilings and visibilities to MVFR conditions briefly. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 A broad surface high centered over the area will keep benign conditions in place across the waters through Tuesday with light and variable winds of less than 5 knots and seas of less than 2 feet expected. A few showers or storms will pop up in the morning hours with some locally higher winds and waves, but these impacts will be short-lived each day. The pressure gradient will begin tightening Wednesday and remain that way as an amplifying surface ridge draped along the Eastern Seaboard expands southwestward and takes over the high currently over the northeastern Gulf. This will create an easterly flow regime with strengthening winds. Latest forecast calls for winds to increase to at least 20 to 25 knots with gusts approaching gale force Wednesday into Thursday. Seas will respond to these higher winds and increase to 8 to 10 feet. Some minor coastal flooding may also impact east facing shorelines over this period. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...MSW MARINE...MSW