806
FXUS64 KLIX 140852
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
352 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Not a lot of difference day to day for the next several days. The
rain chances remain above normal for this time of year, and this
enhancement is being helped by the upper troughing causing the mid
to upper flow to split allowing storms to perculate each day with
help of heating. The upper low and attendant trough will be moving
east today but will be replaced by another which is currently along
the foothills moving into he plains later today into Sunday. Each
morning we will see nocturnals form over the warmer shelf waters as
the water temps are only within a few degrees of convective temps.
And since storm motion is onshore, these will move in each morning
becoming our first chance of rain, then these decay as the marine
areas stabilize during the day and we start to see the transition
from marine to land based storms. This is very normal during the
summers along the northern gulf coast. Most of this activity will
not be severe, but there are always the renegades out there from
time to time and as always, all of these storms and even showers can
put down some heavy rainfall for any given location.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Monday and Tuesday should be high rain prob days as we will become
the battle ground for a southerly flow environment and NW flow
moving systems into the area with the deep moisture availability.
Basically, we will remain in a higher than normal precip summer
regime through much of the week. And any given day can give an
isolated heavy rain and/or severe storm. But we will begin to slowly
take these rain chances lower through the week and may be within a
more normal distribution of around 30-40% by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Cigs will mainly be VFR outside TSRA and these will lower these
levels temporarily when they do occur. MCB could see IFR cigs late
tonight but this will lift shortly after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Southerly winds at 15kt or less is expected throughout this fcast as
we remain in a very typical summer pattern with respect to the
northern gulf waters. There is a good chance of sh/ts each day and
night. Some of these could become strong causing winds to shift and
rise abruptly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  71  89  72 /  60  30  80  30
BTR  91  74  90  74 /  80  20  90  30
ASD  92  74  91  74 /  70  20  80  20
MSY  92  77  91  77 /  70  20  90  20
GPT  90  76  89  76 /  60  30  80  30
PQL  90  74  90  74 /  60  30  70  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE