626
FXUS64 KLIX 081125
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
525 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

 - Cold front moving through the area overnight with colder air in
   its wake. The coldest morning will be Tuesday morning.

 - Hazardous marine conditions expected to continue into at least
   Monday evening before conditions improve on Tuesday.

 - Little, if any, rainfall through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A broad upper trough covered much of the eastern two thirds of the
country this evening, with ridging along the Pacific Coast. A strong
shortwave was moving through the middle and lower Mississippi
River Valley. At the surface, low pressure was moving across the
northern half of the area, with a cold front trailing to the
southwest near Houma at 11 PM CST. A nearly solid line of showers
was noted in advance of the front. Temperatures ahead of, and just
behind the front were generally in the 50s. Colder air was still
well to the northwest.

The trough and low pressure will already be off the Atlantic Coast
by Monday evening, with high pressure extending from the Great Lakes
to Texas. By sunset Tuesday, the high will extend from the Carolina
coast to the Louisiana coast, and remain there overnight Tuesday
night.

The precipitation affecting the area this evening will end across
the area well before sunrise Monday. However, clouds may be
slower to clear the area, especially over southwest Mississippi.
Expect little sunshine during the morning hours Monday, but
southeast Louisiana and the Mississippi coast could get some sun
during the afternoon hours. There is at least some chance that
clouds could linger over southwest Mississippi through a good
portion of Monday night before skies clear.

Temperatures should see some recovery Monday afternoon in areas that
see sunshine, but may not move much over southwest Mississippi.
There is some threat of temperatures dipping to the freezing mark
near sunrise Tuesday over portions of southwest Mississippi and the
Pearl and Pascagoula River drainages, but confidence not high
enough to justify Freeze Warnings at this time. Temperatures
should begin to recover during the day Tuesday, to around 60 or
perhaps a little higher. With high pressure slipping off to the
east Tuesday night, temperatures should remain safely above
freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

With the longwave trough axis to our east for the middle of the week
into, and potentially through, the weekend, the upper flow will be
northwesterly, which should keep the area mostly dry. If there is
going to be any precipitation during this portion of the forecast,
it will probably be over the weekend. If it occurs, it looks like
amounts will be rather light, probably less than a quarter inch.

The medium range operational models from Sunday morning were in
disagreement regarding any cold air behind the next front, with the
ECMWF noticeably warmer than the Sunday daytime GFS run for Friday
and Saturday. The ECMWF warmer solution was a significant departure
from what we were looking at 24 hours ago, but would note that a
very quick look at the new 00z/08 GFS is trending that direction as
well. At this point, the NBM numbers appear to give the older GFS
solution quite a bit more weight. Would not be surprised to see the
midday Monday forecast package trend a fair amount warmer for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

LIFR and IFR CIGS will slowly improve today becoming VFR during
the afternoon. Northerly winds will be around 15kt for most but
could be up to 30kt in gusts on lee of lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Will continue Small Craft Advisory through 00z Tuesday, followed by
Small Craft Exercise Caution through 09z Tuesday as winds and seas
gradually subside. Conditions should be more favorable for marine
operations, at least regarding winds and waves for Tuesday through
Thursday. Once onshore flow develops at mid-week, that can be a
signal for sea fog development. At this time, the only window where
dew points might support fog development would be perhaps Friday.

The next frontal passage will probably be late Friday or over the
weekend, and may need wind/wave headlines at that point.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  32  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  57  34  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  59  33  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  59  42  59  45 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  59  36  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  59  32  59  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...RW