039
FXUS64 KLIX 151744
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1244 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Active weather pattern will continue to start the work week as
weak troughing aloft persists. Surface high pressure is still
centered over the western Atlantic with the western periphery
stretching into the north-central Gulf. This will maintain onshore
flow in the low levels, bringing ample Gulf moisture into the
local area.

With an abundance of moisture and a relatively unstable air mass
in place, the only thing needed to fire off convection is a
trigger - which will again come in the form of daytime heating.
That being said, expect a fairly typical dirunal pattern to the
convective activity, with showers and storms tapering off this
evening, remaining generally quiet overnight, and popping back up
during the mid to late morning hours with a peak during the
afternoon.

As has been the case the last several days, some of the stronger
storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent
lightning and heavy rainfall.

Afternoon temperatures will continue to be near normal, with
warmer than normal overnight temperatures owing to the humid
airmass which will inhibit radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

With no significant changes in the pattern, expect higher than
normal rain chances to continue through midweek as upper troughing
continues to lead to instability across the region. Upper trough
axis finally starts to flatten out and lift northeastward midweek,
with weak upper ridging building into the area by Friday and
Saturday.

NBM continues to carry higher POPs even into the weekend, and
this appears unrealistic given the expectation of upper ridging
building in. This is likely a result of bias correction not
accounting for the pattern change. That being said, have once
again lowered POPs during the Friday/Saturday time frame and am
generally carrying 40-60% POPs compared to the NBM`s 70% plus.
Additional adjustments may be necessary given the current
forecast is still above both the GFS and Euro ensemble means and
is even above the 90th percentile in the ECMWF ensemble.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Outside of convection, VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with generally light southerly/southwesterly winds.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon will
result in temporary restrictions if they move over the terminals,
and have included TEMPO or PROB30 groups to all terminals to
account for this. Have generally kept these groups to mVFR
conditions, though any heavier storms would likely result in IFR
conditions and will have to be handled through short term
amendments.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

High pressure centered east of the local area will keep onshore
flow in place through the period, generally 15 kts or lighter.
Expect to see daily showers and storms, with higher winds and seas
in the vicinity of this activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  89  72  89 /  30  70  20  70
BTR  73  91  74  90 /  30  80  20  80
ASD  72  91  74  90 /  40  70  20  80
MSY  77  91  77  91 /  30  70  10  90
GPT  75  88  76  89 /  40  60  20  80
PQL  74  89  75  90 /  30  50  20  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM