944
FXUS64 KLIX 291847
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
147 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

- River flooding in Pearl River Co and MS Coastal Basins will
  continue as water continues to drain from yesterday`s heavy
  rainfall.

- Drier pattern through this weekend with increased rain chances
  returning middle of next week.

- Summertime temps coming with highs around 90 degrees and heat
  indicies near 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Two broad upper level lows are situated over the country, one near
main and another over Utah. Both are quite expansive both also far
away from the CWA. More locally, remnant shortwave from yesterday is
decaying over the Tennessee Valley between those 2 upper lows and a
weak ridge is trying to fill in behind it across the northeastern
Gulf Coast. That puts the forecast area kinda between all those
features. A dry slot that move in behind that shortwave contiues to
move east with modestly saturated airmass coming in from the
northwest. Decent surface heating has been able to utilize that
moisture to popoff a few showers mainly north of I-12. Visible
satellite shows areas of CU enhancence in areas south of I-12. This
suggests that convective coverage will increase slightly from
current mostly isolated right now.

As that shortwave completely dissipates Saturday, the ridge now
centered over the central Gulf will be able to expand north across
the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Although forecast POPs hold on
to a slight chacne in SW and Coastal MS counties, overall coverage
will be very minimal.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The bigger story of the forecast period will it really starting to
feel like the start of summer this weekend with this pattern change
finally happening. Sunday into Monday, the upper high pressure
system mentioned above will expand northward into the Central
Plains. Resultant 500mb heights over the CWA will solidify low 90
degree highs for all but coastal areas. Scattered storms will still
be possible, mainly initiated by sea breeze boundary convergence,
with possibly greater coverage Monday. That increasing convection
trend  looks to persist into the middle of the week as the ridge
center keeps moving north, farther away from the CWA. Loss of
subsidence from that high pressure while still having warm/moist
airmass in place will certainly support more rain/storms.


MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

MVFR CU deck has developed across the region. These ceilings will
lift to VFR as surface temps continue warming and boundary layer
mixing strengthens. Outside of dominating VFR conditions, isolated
to scattered thunderstorm activity could impact terminals 18z to 22z
with brief periods of MVFR visibility and ceiling restrictions. Will
day though that PROB30 is probably generous in terms of site
specific impacts. Late in the forecast period, another round of low
stratus and some light fog will redevelop at MCB around 10z tomorrow
as the boundary layer once again decouples beneath largely clear
skies and light winds.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A broad surface high pressure system will remain parked over the
coastal waters through next Tuesday.  This will keep winds light and
variable at 10 knots or less and seas calm at 2 feet or less through
the weekend and into early next week.  A few storms may pop up each
day with locally gusty winds, but overall rain chances will remain
low through Tuesday. A deep upper level trough will dig southward
across the Eastern Seaboard and shift that ridge westward and
attempt to send a backdoor front to the coastal waters. Latest
guidance suggests that the boundary stalls right as it reaches the
MS sound due to the proximity of the trough axis in relation to the
local area. Thus, expect wind field to weaken considerably next week
due to weak pressure pattern in place. A new surface ridge will then
build in from the east, which will bring the return of steady
southeast winds across all coastal waters.  Thunderstorm chances
will also increase with more numerous showers and thunderstorms
forming over the waters.

MEFFER
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME