275
FXUS64 KLIX 071739
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1239 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
  each afternoon. Any storms will be very slow moving and may
  generate enough rain to cause localized flooding in poorly
  drained and low lying areas.

- Heat index values will climb to around 105 each day, but are
  currently forecast to remain just below hazardous levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Typical August weather pattern continues through short term
period. In the lower levels we have the western edge of high
pressure controlling our conditions. In the upper levels we sit
between the high pressure over the desert southwest and the
western periphery of the Bermuda high. The controlling flow at
both levels is northerly bringing Gulf moisture onshore and
includes a small amount of lift due to upper level vorticity. The
moisture and lift will bring our typical summertime popcorn storms
which could be strong, but are not exptected to reach severe
criteria.

So, we see temperatures ranging between the mid 70s for overnight
lows to afternoon highs in the low 90s. Humidity levels are
forecasted be typical and will carry the feels-like temps into the
100-105 range. The afternoon temperatures will be dependent on exact
timing and placement of any storms that pop up and drop rain on a
given location. Those storms will be stationary or very slow moving,
so there is a possibility of minor, localized flooding in poorly
drained and low lying areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

August weather continues on into August as we look through the
end of next week. Much of the same conditions described in the
Short Term discussions continue through the forecast period.
Southerly winds will remain through the extended keeping sfc
moisture available but mid level dry air will help keep PW values
in the 50th to 75th percentile range, which means isolated to
scattered afternoon convection looks to be the consistent trend
for much of next week.

In the absence of sh/ts, temps will climb into the 90s each day and
heat index readings should also be flirting with advisory numbers
next week, mainly by mid next week. Wind speeds should be just
enough to keep ventilation raised but it won`t be much longer before
even the winds weaken to the point that it can barely be felt, which
is common for August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR condition across the area will continue through the
period. Isolated showers and storms are expected, but are low
probability for any given location so are not coded in the TAFs;
however, visibility could be reduced if a storm occurs directly at
a terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Through the weekend and into early next week, a predominantly but
somewhat variable southerly to easterly flow of around 10 knots
will keep seas of 1 to 2 feet in place across all of the waters.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire up each day in the
early morning hours before moving inland by the afternoon hours.
These storms will produce lightning strikes, heavy downpours, a
few waterspouts, and locally higher winds and waves. Overall, a
very typical pattern will be in place for early August.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS