Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
289 FXUS64 KLIX 020450 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A weak surface front still lingers just south of our coast. This feature will continue to help generate at least some marine convection, which may move over the southern tier today. Another weak trough/surface front resides over the midsouth region, which may get close enough for a shower or two in southwest MS this afternoon during peak heating. Though coverage looks minimal as much of the lift will be north of our CWFA. The overall synoptic pattern remains unchanged with a large scale trough still residing over the eastern US. This will keep our area in dry northwest flow and again outside of the convective chances over the water/southern tier most of the region should remain on the dry side with only silent 10s currently in the forecast along the I10/12 corridor. Toward the end of the period the aforementioned front will finally surge southward as an impulse moves it along. Models have the front passing through even beyond our 60nm marine waters sending a rush of dry air into the region, which will be the main story going into the long term period, at least initially. With the lack of QPF signal/POPs think temperatures will begin to increase. Surface flow transitions to offshore, which is a clue of a warming pattern to round out the short term period. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 To start the long term the mid and upper flow continues to be a dry northwesterly flow. Only change here is the surface front moves far enough away to shut down most rain/storm chances later this week. With continued offshore flow and lack of POPs/QPF, temperatures will warm well into the 90s. With lower RH values, heat index values will climb only into the upper 90s or lower 100s, well below the need for advisories. Going into the weekend a slight synoptic pattern change is expected to take place. The overall flow will be lighter but perhaps support a slow uptick in low level moisture. The broad scale trough will flatten leading to a rather stagnant upper level flow regime. Globals have yet another surface front moving southward, but will likely hang up to our north as the flow becomes more zonal across the midsouth region. The globals are pinging some rain chances, but again with only a gradual increase in moisture, coverage will be slow to increase as well as we go through the weekend and into the start of the new workweek. The weekend continues to appear on the warm side, however, there will be more opportunities for rainfall, which may keep temps down just a skosh in the lower 90s vs mid 90s expected prior to this pattern shift. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Mostly VFR conditions through the cycle. There could be some isolated convection for the southern most terminals this afternoon, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. Carried PROBs for -TSRA for the more likely sites. Otherwise, winds should remain mostly light. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Light to moderate winds and seas across the local waters with the higher winds mostly across the eastern marine zones this morning. As surface high pressure noses into the region from the north, the pressure gradient will start to break down later this afternoon and tonight allowing winds to lighten. Marine convection will continue to be possible during the overnight and morning hours especially. Locally higher winds and seas can be expected in and around convection. The coverage should trail off a bit as dry air works into the region mid to late week behind a cold frontal boundary. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 90 68 89 67 / 10 10 20 10 BTR 91 72 91 70 / 10 10 20 10 ASD 89 70 89 69 / 20 10 20 10 MSY 88 77 89 75 / 10 10 30 10 GPT 87 72 87 70 / 10 0 20 10 PQL 87 70 87 68 / 10 0 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF