063
FXUS64 KLIX 022330
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
630 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will affect the area through
  Sunday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with locally higher
  amounts and some localized flooding issues are expected, mainly
  along and south of I-10. Residents should continue to monitor
  the forecast for updates regarding this threat. Remember, Turn
  Around Don`t Drown!

- Larger than normal tide ranges and onshore flow will produce
  minor coastal flooding especially on southeast facing shore
  lines during the high tide cycle the next several nights. A
  Coastal Flood Advisory is in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

No change to the overall short term forecasting and discussion of
conditions that we`ve been putting out the past several forecast
cycle. We are still looking at a setup of very high Precipitable
Water in the atmosphere, near record values on the order of 2.5-2.6
inches. The moisture is being driven by onshore, return flow out of
the Gulf that is traveling around the periphery of high pressure in
the Atlantic and eastern Gulf. A low pressure center and associated
troughing and frontal boundary is over the southern plains and it is
tapping into tropical moisture from activity in the Pacific. A weak
jet streak associated with the troughing will position itself with
the right rear quadrant over our area will provide added lifting
mechanism to give the moisture an upward boost. We are confident
that rain will be occurring across the area through the weekend. The
real question is how much will it rain. A gradient of heavy rain
totals through Sunday night into Monday morning will be on the order
of 2 inches over our northwest parishes/counties ramping up to 4-6
inches over coastal LA and MS. Isolated areas of higher intensity
will be possible with worst- case totals up to 8-10 inches in
coastal LA and MS. The rain is not expected to be a constant
presence through the weekend, rather there will be some lulls with
weaker and stronger periods of rainfall. This overall setup is
definitely favorable for isolated flash flooding especially in low
lying and/or poorly drained areas. If there is any good news in the
forecast, it is that conditions do not support any severe activity,
although some lightning may occur along with a stronger storm cell.

With the rainfall and the front in the area, we are looking at high
temperatures in the mid-80s, but the overnight lows still hang in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

By Monday night the aforementioned front will effectively stall out
in the northern Gulf. Through the week, it will drift further south
and this will set up another rain intensity gradient of no rain in
our southwestern MS counties to 30-40% PoPs over the coastal
parishes that gradually decrease to around 20%.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Currently VFR at all forecast terminals. Scattered showers
continue to move northwestward, but with the loss of surface
heating, anticipate some loss of areal coverage over the next
couple hours, and may have several hours with very little
precipitation over land. Has been very little lightning near our
terminals this afternoon, and will only carry TEMPO or PROB30 SHRA
this evening.

Surge of deeper moisture is expected to arrive overnight. Expect
MVFR to IFR ceilings to develop prior to sunrise, with at least
scattered SHRA/-TSRA developing near shore and moving inland
during the morning. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA to be the rule
of the day with MVFR conditions widespread and occasionally IFR or
lower conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A tightening pressure gradient over the coastal waters that will
form in response to a developing low pressure system in the western
Gulf. This will allow southeast winds to remain elevated near 15
knots with higher gusts through Saturday. Very choppy seas of 4 to 6
feet will accompany these winds in the open Gulf waters. These
conditions have prompted issuance of Small Craft Exercise Caution in
the open waters. The persistent southeasterly winds combined with a
high tide cycle, we have also issued a Coastal Flood Advisory.

The lakes and sounds will see slightly lower winds closer to 10
knots and choppy conditions through Saturday. Winds will briefly
relax to 10 knots or less on Sunday as a front stalls along the
coast. This front is expected to then slowly push through the waters
on Monday and Tuesday. Winds will turn northeasterly behind the
front and increase back to 15 to 20 knots as cooler and drier air
advects over the warm waters. Another low will form along the front
by Wednesday, and this should increase winds in small craft advisory
range of 20 to 25 knots. Seas will also increase to 5 to 7 feet by
Wednesday leading to rough conditions. Thunderstorms will also be
around today through Monday, but the only main concerns will be from
lightning and heavy rainfall reducing visibilities.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
     Saturday for LAZ064-070-076-078-091-093-095-097.

GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
     Saturday for MSZ086>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...DS