964
FXUS64 KLIX 132323
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
623 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected for much of the forecast. Highs in
  the mid to upper 90s through the weekend with heat index values
  generally running in the mid 100s to near 110 tomorrow, and then
  likely climbing into the lower 110`s this weekend. Heat
  Advisories are in place for Friday and Heat Warnings are likely
  Saturday, Sunday, and into the new week. The impact of the
  afternoon highs will be exacerbated by the slightly higher than
  normal overnight lows; we just won`t have a chance to cool off.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

So, what`s new? Not really anything! We still have the high
pressure over the area behaving the same as we`ve been discussing
the past several days. The high pressure is intensifying and
continues to drive a slight temperature increase and little to no
rain.

The important message in the short term is the elevated Heat
Index, or feels like temperature, that will reach levels prompting
issuance of Heat Advisories. This afternoon and tomorrow from 11am
to 8pm we will see the Heat Index around 110 degrees. Make sure
you`re drinking lots of water and finding ways to stay cool.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

The long term still continues to look hot with the upper ridge
stretched from the Desert Southwest all the way to the western
Atlantic. That said there is a very subtle weakness in the globals
over the southern Mississippi River Valley. This will NOT shake
the heat, but may help with a little less subsidence for a very
slight uptick in convective coverage during the diurnal cycle. By
this point, several days where highs in the 90s occurred with
several likely nearly rain free days, the soil moisture will
continue to decrease, which will help daily highs warm into the
upper 90s to near 100 degrees later in the period. PWATs are still
forecast to increase to around 2.0" which suggests better
moisture quality with more limited mixing leading to higher
surface relative humidity values. Bottom line here is with the
higher temps and higher humidity, "feels like" temps will
probably reach the warning criteria.

Going through the end of the forecast period and perhaps slightly
beyond, globals are struggling a bit with the overall synoptic
pattern in terms of timing, however, both the ECM/GFS and respective
ensembles show an upper level trough trying to dig either over the
Central Plains or over the east coast midweek next week, which
hopefully suppress and weaken the eastern extent of the H5 ridge.
[Frye/Schlotz]

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Isolated TSRA had developed just before forecast issuance time
near KMCB, and will need to carry VCTS there for an hour or so.
Otherwise VFR at all terminals and likely to remain that way
overnight at most terminals. If there`s going to be any fog around
sunrise, it`d be at KMCB...if it rains near the airport. Not
including it now, but may need considered for the 06z package.
With probabilities of TSRA less than 10 percent Friday afternoon,
won`t carry any mention in any of the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Generally benign marine conditions through the forecast period
with high pressure mostly being in control from start to finish.
Isolated nightly convection will be possible, especially over the
offshore waters where locally higher winds and seas may reside
around showers and storms with perhaps a waterspout or two.
Overall, winds should remain mostly southerly at or less than 10
knots outside of convection. Some variability in direction will
occur through the period as the center of high pressure evolves
and moves. (Frye/Schlotz)

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...DS