485
FXUS64 KLIX 172024
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
324 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Another day with convection across the region this afternoon.
Coverage was a bit less than originally thought and way less than
the days past likely due to some upper dry air filtering into the
region from the west on the western side of the trough that`s
been over our region for the last few days. That said, with the
increase in upper level dry air, some downbursts have been a bit
on the stronger side, although mostly below severe limits.

Going into the evening and overnight, conditions should settle a
bit as convection will refocus likely offshore with the diurnal
cycle. Locations across inland south MS may see a little shallow
ground fog develop, especially where grounds are a bit wetter
after the recent rainfall this afternoon. Otherwise, going into
Wednesday, overall looks very similar. Temperatures look to be
just a bit warmer, but it all depends on timing of convection and
coverage as well as any convective debris (cloudiness) that may
result in slightly lower temperatures. That said, based on current
timing of convection and coverage, many locations will at least
briefly touch 90F on Wednesday, if not a degree or two higher.
(Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Going into Thursday a gradual pattern change will start to take
place. At the surface a very weak surface boundary/front will move
south and basically wash out across the southeast US as an upper
level ridge builds into the region. This will help mitigate POPs
just a bit with a bit more subsidence aloft, but we will continue
to advertise at least climo or a skosh higher late week. With the
slightly more limited rain chances, inversely the temperatures
will begin to increase across the region with some locations
approaching the middle 90s. During this time and throughout much
of the long range, will need to watch for the need of a heat
advisory as heat index values approach that 108F threshold.

Going into the weekend a strong H5 596dam heat bubble sets up over
the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. This will allow for an
easterly flow across the region and a very summerlike pattern with
diurnally driven convection continuing across the CWFA. With some
slightly drier air aloft, the strongest activity may produce
strong winds. Otherwise, beyond that in the easterly flow a weak
inverted trough is forecast to amplify over the Gulf and perhaps
be just enough to increase POPs once again by the start of the new
workweek next week. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Scattered convection across the region this afternoon. Covered
most with TEMPOs through the remainder of peak heating. Otherwise,
VFR conditions expected. There could be some visibility issues for
MCB with MVFR VIS just before sunrise, but this will be only a
couple hours at max. Otherwise, winds will remain generally light
and southerly. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A benign marine forecast through the cycle is expected with
generally light to moderate onshore winds. The winds could gust
at times toward the end of the cycle up to 15 knots as pressure
gradient slightly tightens between lee side troughing over the
high plains and high pressure across the southwest Atlantic. That
said, diurnally driven convection will be possible each day,
especially during the overnight hours and morning. Locally higher
winds and seas expected in and around convection. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  90  72  91 /  30  50  10  70
BTR  74  92  75  91 /  30  60  10  80
ASD  74  91  75  92 /  20  60  10  70
MSY  78  92  78  92 /  20  50  20  80
GPT  78  89  77  90 /  20  60  30  70
PQL  74  90  75  91 /  30  50  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF