102
FXUS64 KLIX 090548
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1248 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

 - Much drier air will be moving in today and through the weekend.

 - Cooler temperatures expected through the weekend.

 - Hazardous marine conditions for all of the coastal waters
   through Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

After one last gasp of convection moved through late this
afternoon and early this evening, the cold front moved across the
area this evening and drier air was already sliding into the
region. At 5z the cold front was already moving off the coast with
dewpoints in the upper 60s and PWs down to around 1.4 across
southwest MS. Only cloud cover noted over the region was some
wispy cirrus.

Forecast for the next 2 days will be rather quiet. Biggest forecast
concerns the next few days and generally through the weekend will be
moisture and temperatures. A s/w is currently sliding southeast
through portions of the Lower MS Valley and into the sern CONUS.
This will help to drive moisture out of the area with northwesterly
to almost northerly flow aloft in place later today. High pressure
is already working in behind our cold front but it is still centered
well off to the northeast. This will provide light winds at the sfc
tonight with mostly clear skies and dry conditions which will be
favorable for radiational cooling. However, winds at h925 and h85
will remain in a 10-15 kt range and that may help provide just
enough mixing to keep temps from dropping more. Combine that with
dewpoints still in the upper 50s to lower 60s and highs today
climbing into the mid 80s to near 90 a 25-30 degree diurnal
temperature change is still pretty healthy shift when the normal
change is around 15 to 23 degrees. We finally see a secondary surge
of drier and even slightly cooler air Friday as afternoon highs on
Friday will only climb into the lower to mid 80s. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Medium range models suggest we will remain quiet and dry through
the extended portion of the forecast. Rain looks like it will be
very hard to come by over the next 7 days. Models seem to be in
fairly good agreement and with that no adjustments have been made
with respect to the latest NBM.

Deep trough that is over the sern CONUS heading into the weekend
will get reinforced by a strong disturbance dropping southeast out
of Canada Friday. This get a L/W trough in place over the Great
Lakes through the Appalachians and eastern Gulf over the weekend. At
the same time a ridge will build in response over Mexico and through
the southern Plains and into the Mid MS Valley. That ridge will
build east next week becoming centered over the Lower MS Valley
Tuesday. This will bring a return to warmer temperatures but we will
remain dry.

Now before next week we still have this weekend which by all
accounts looks to be rather nice. A secondary push of drier air will
work in Friday and that will drop dewpoints down more. With highs
only climbing into the lower to mid 80s Friday and Saturday it does
place much of the area in a good jumping off point for radiational
cooling Friday and Saturday nights. Friday night will be a nice cool
night with temperatures dropping quickly through the evening but we
probably won`t be able to bottom out as winds just abv the BL are
still in the 15 to maybe even 20kt(around h85) range. That will
still promote some mixing and will likely keep the area from
dropping to its full potential Saturday morning. Heading into
Saturday night and Sunday morning the conditions may finally be
optimal. We will still only warm up into the lower to mid 80s
Saturday, dry air will be in place, BL winds will decouple like
becoming light and variable, skies will be clear, and winds just off
the deck will be much lighter finally. In addition the sfc high will
continue to wedge in nicely from the northeast and that usually aids
in the drainage effects we see in the Pearl and Pascagoula River
drainage areas. With that morning lows Sunday morning could range
from the mid 60s right along the southshore and immediate SELA coast
to mid 50s in our drainage areas.

We begin to moderate temp wise going into the new work week but
moisture and especially rain will be a struggle for the next week.
/CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Cold front has already moved through the area and drier air is
working into the region. All terminals are currently in VFR status
and will remain that way for the foreseeable future. With drier air
sliding in the fog we have been seeing the last two days will not be
a concern today. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Cold front has moved into the coastal waters before 5z and high
pressure is quickly building in behind it. The pressure gradient
will tighten across the coastal waters as weak persistent low
pressure over the southeastern Gulf and large area of high
pressure to the north and northeast dominate the region over the
next few days. Winds will be quick to ramp up overnight tonight
with the winds east of the MS delta first responding and then the
western waters early in the morning. Winds will slack off some
during the midday and afternoon hours today but will begin to
increase once again Thursday evening with strong northeast winds
continuing through Saturday morning. Winds will generally be
around 15 to 20 kts with frequent gusts abv 20 kts and with that
the SCS headlines already in place will be upgraded to an SCY
through the morning hours today for all of the coastal waters and
then another SCY will be in place for Thursday evening through
Saturday morning for all of the waters again. Winds will finally
relax during the day Saturday as high pressure builds in more.
/CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  63  84  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  64  82  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  71  84  67  84 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  66  81  62  82 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  63  81  58  84 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
     Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
     575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
     Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-
     577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB