666
FXUS64 KLIX 232323
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
623 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
  forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours through the work
  week. A few storms could become strong to severe each day. The
  main threat from any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts.
  Frequent lightning and brief periods of heavy rain will also be
  possible from these storms. Stay weather aware and remember when
  thunder roars, go indoors.

- The increase in rain chances and cloud cover will help limit
  heat threats through the week, however, heat index values will
  still approach advisory criteria each day by early afternoon.
  Those with outdoor plans should continue to take precautions to
  avoid heat-related illnesses. Stay hydrated and take breaks in
  the shade or air conditioning if possible.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Tonight through Wednesday, upper level ridging will remain in
place over the area to the west, and we will enter the "ring of
fire" pattern. Southerly surface winds will continue to help
advect warm air and moisture into the area, increasing the
humidity across the region. Daily isolated to scattered showers
and storms will be expected for the next few days, but especially
tomorrow as a lingering weakness influences the area. These
storms where they occur will have the potential for frequent
lightning and gusty subsevere winds (40- 50mph). These storms are
not expected to be severe, based on recent model trends.

The heat continues as ridging builds back over the area. Highs in
the upper 90s to low 100s combined with heat index values in the
105-112 degrees range will be quite warm and uncomfortable. Given
the uncertainties with cloud cover for Monday, we held off on
issuing a heat advisory for now. It will be looked at again on the
next forecast cycle. Tuesday and Wednesday will be hot and
advisories may be needed. Be sure to stay hydrated and take
frequent breaks if you will be spending time outdoors. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

High pressure begins to break down over the area for the rest of
the workweek into next weekend. Southerly surface winds will
continue to advect warm and moist air into the region, increasing
humidities for the area. Daily scattered showers or storms will
be possible during peak heating hours as we return to a more
normal summertime pattern. The main risk with these storms where
they occur would be frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50mph).
The heat will linger with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat
index values in the 105-110 degree range, it will be quite
uncomfortable outside. So, be sure to stay hydrated and take
frequent breaks if spending time outdoors. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The main concern will be scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms moving into the area during the mid to late
afternoon hours Monday. Some of these showers and thunderstorms
will have potential to become strong to locally severe. Expect
thunderstorms to affect each terminal at some point Monday
afternoon. For the time being have included only tempo groups for
thunderstorms with winds of 15kt and mvfr vis but as confidence in
timing and intensity increase, these forecasts will continue to be
refined.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a
generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak
and variable winds around 5 to 10 knots will become W then SW to
start the week. A predominantly light southerly flow will set up by
mid week and remain through the end of the week. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves
higher in and near this activity.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...MSW