Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
364 FXUS64 KLIX 041824 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1224 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 - Another weak front will move through Friday, followed by a stronger front this weekend. Cooler and much drier conditions are expected heading into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 A weak cold front will continue to push through coastal Mississippi this afternoon before finally pulling east of the area by this evening. A thin line of showers will accompany this frontal passage as it moves through, but any rain activity will remain light and last an hour or less. In the wake of the front, increasing negative vorticity advection and subsidence aloft associated with a building deep layer shortwave ridge axis will allow skies to rapidly clear with the entire region seeing clear skies by the early evening hours. This ridge axis will pass directly over the area tomorrow with mostly clear skies and near average temperatures expected. Lows will dip into the low to mid 50s north and west of Lake Pontchartrain and the low 60s south of the lake for tonight, and highs will back into the upper 70s and lower 80s for tomorrow afternoon. Humidity will be much lower, so a very pleasant day can be expected. As we move into Friday, a northern stream trough axis and another reinforcing weak front will slide through the region. This system will be moisture starved with PWATS average slightly below normal. Thus, only some passing clouds and a few offshore showers are expected with this next front. Temperatures will be largely the same as those seen on Thursday. Finally, Friday night, a much stronger surge of cold air advection will occur as the upper level trough axis departs the region and another reinforcing stronger front sweeps down from the north. Temperatures will once again cool into the 50s Friday night, but will be below average as we move into the weekend. Highs on Saturday will only warm into the low to mid 70s and lows will fall into the low to mid 40s north of I-10 and the upper 40s and lower 50s south of I-10 for Saturday night. One concern that does increase over the weekend will a slightly elevated fire threat as humidity values decrease toward critical levels. Fortunately, winds will remain below critical thresholds, helping to keep overall fire danger below any red flag criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 The long term period starts with the region residing under a more progressive upper level synoptic pattern. At the surface a coastal trough is forecast to develop over the natural baroclinic zone along the Texas Coast. Aloft, a closed upper low is forecast to develop and spread eastward. Globals are confident up to this point in time. Beyond Sunday the GFS and ECM diverge a good bit. The GFS is a bit more progressive with the upper low and trough evolving a surface low over the Gulf, which would likely bring our region some rainfall courtesy of isentropic upglide. The ECM is not nearly as progressive and eventually flattens the surface trough east of the lower TX Gulf Coast. In this solution no surface low develops and no rainfall over our area, in fact it appears mostly dry going into early next week. Will mention the possibility of light stratiform rain early next week in the event the GFS is correct, but given the discrepancies among the globals, we will keep it on the lower side for now. As for temperatures, expect generally around average for this time of year. But the GFS may be a tad cooler due cloudiness and precip early next week. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 A narrow band of showers immediately in advance of a weak cold front will impact GPT between 20z and 21z with MVFR visibilities and ceilings. Once this band of showers passes through, conditions will start to improve with prevailing VFR conditions expected by 23z. The remainder of the terminals will continue to see VFR conditions prevail through tomorrow as a dry and stable high pressure system builds into the area. PG && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 A weak cold front will continue to push through the waters this afternoon and evening. Behind the front, winds will shift to the northwest and north, but will remain light at 5 knots or less. A reinforcing surge of cooler and drier air behind a secondary front will allow offshore winds to increase to 10 to 15 knots Thursday night into Friday. Northerly winds will further increase Friday night into exercise caution range of 15 to 20 knots as another much stronger front sweeps through the region. These stronger winds will persist through the weekend and into early next week. Seas will respond to the higher winds over the weekend and increase to 4 to 6 feet by Sunday night and Monday. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...PG MARINE...PG