699
FXUS64 KLIX 201052
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
552 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 456 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Dangerous heat continues with afternoon heat indices in the
  105-113 degree range through the week. Warm overnight
  temperatures will offer limited to no relief.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon storms are expected the next
  couple days with a little better coverage Friday afternoon and
  evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

It is getting easier to see the large high building into the SW
CONUS on IR imagery. This high will begin to amplify causing the
polar trough to buckle a bit causing deeper troughing which will
cause this weakness that has been near the area to orient in the
same fashion just farther west and south by Fri. We will likey be
past the hottest temps of the day Fri before any protective cloud
cover from the storms develops. The orientation of this weak
trough should be from Texarkana to Alexandria to McComb to Mobile.
This will help provide the area with more storms than we have been
seeing lately. The bad part is that with these storms, there will
be the potential for isolated severe. The good thing about all of
this activity will be a break from the heat even if it is after
the hottest part of the day. Backing up to Thu will show how this
troughing will orient itself for Fri. We should see the trough
moving south through southern Arkansas by late Thu. The give away
will be the development of sh/ts along it boundary and the best
way to see it is at 850mb. That same orientation that it takes on
Thu will be much the same for Fri just farther south. Each day
through Sunday will keep slightly better chances of storms but it
will take the strongest heating of the day to get them going with
convective temps in the mid 90s. Basically, the heat and heat
headlines will likely continue each day since it will be after we
have achieved the hottest temps of each day that storms will begin
to develop.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Going into the start of the new workweek, sadly the pattern will
hold with very little change. There will be some slight troughing
over the eastern US and even Florida where the best potential for
more numerous showers and storms will reside. However, the H5 heat
bubble situated over the southern Plains and Four Corners region
will continues to ridge east over our region ultimately keeping
POPs on the low side. Overall, the best potential for convection
will be over the open Gulf waters at night especially adjacent to
the Mississippi Coast. Outside of that, the MS Gulf coast Monday
through Wednesday will have the highest POPs during the afternoon
along the sea breeze. Silent 10s for SE LA and SW MS are there so
not 100 percent completely free of rain, but it will certainly be
uncommon west of the I59 corridor. As for temperatures, you
guessed it. Ridging aloft means we will continue to bake daily.
Heat index values through the long term support continued heat
headlines from Monday through Wednesday with again perhaps some
afternoon relief over the MS Gulf Coast. One other small
note...regarding convection with plenty of dry air aloft, DCAPE
values will be more than supportive enough to strong gusty winds
in the taller and wider updrafts along the MS Gulf Coast. A rogue
severe storm or two with severe wind gust potential will be
something to watch in the coming days for that region of the CWFA.
(Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 456 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR for most terminals today. TSRA will develop late in the day
again with the highest chances within the same areas that we have
seen for the last few days. Outside TSRA, VFR will be the rule for
all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a
generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. A
predominantly westerly flow will continue, with higher winds during
the early morning and late night hours. Isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this
activity, particularly during the overnight and early morning
hours.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-
     089>100.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE