658
FXUS64 KLIX 280520
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1136 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast mainly during
  the afternoon hours today and Saturday with more numerous storms
  moving back in for Sunday into the new week. A few storms could
  become strong. The main threat from any severe storms will be
  damaging wind gusts. Frequent lightning and periods of heavy
  rain will also be possible from these storms. Stay weather aware
  and remember when thunder roars, go indoors.

- The increase in rain chances and cloud cover will help limit
  heat threats, however, heat index values may still approach
  advisory criteria before thunderstorms develop by early
  afternoon. Those with outdoor plans should continue to take
  precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Stay hydrated and
  take breaks in the shade or air conditioning if possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

A very weak sfc low over the north central gulf is causing a large
area of weakness allowing sh/ts to develop mainly where the
highest moisture surge is located to its south and east. This will
be the case over the next few days as the low meanders around the
northern gulf then moves west. Today and Saturday will see a bit
less activity as the northerly winds on the west side of the low
will drag relatively dry air southward. At the moment, this low is
baroclinic and has a well defined sfc trough well into the
central to western gulf. Looking at what is above it in the upper
levels at around H3, there is a very stable stagnant trough axis
over the SE CONUS anchoring where the sfc low sits. The southern
end of this trough will eventually cut off and develop a strong
closed upper low which will help shear any sfc feature that tries
to form. This upper low and the sfc low will begin moving west in
tandem Sunday. So, at the moment, there are no expectations of it
becoming tropical, but this time of year, its always good to keep
watch on them. But it will help provide the area with enough
storms during each afternoon starting Sunday to help with the heat
issues.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Differences between the GFS and the ECMWF/Canadian models continue
to persist as we move into next week, but the one overall feature
that is in agreement is that the region will remain embedded within
a deep layer easterly flow regime beneath a broad 500 mb ridge axis
extending from the Great Plains to the Mid-Atlantic states.  Within
this easterly flow pattern, there are timing differences between the
models on the passage of a fairly strong inverted trough axis. The
GFS is far more progressive and has an inverted trough pulling into
Texas by Monday. However, the ECMWF and Canadian models have a
slower moving trough axis that pushes across the forecast area on
Monday before moving into Texas on Tuesday. The forcing and deeper
moisture associated with this system would promote greater
convective activity and higher PoP for Monday and Monday night if
the ECMWF/Canadian solution plays out, while the GFS would be
drier and warmer due to increasing subsidence from the ridge
building in from the north. Given the discrepancies, a blended
solution that keeps slightly higher than average PoP in place for
Monday and Tuesday will be used at the start of the extended
period. Temperatures will be near average over this period with
typical heat index readings of 100 to 105 in place. As we move
into Wednesday and Thursday, the influence of the broad upper
level high will increase resulting in lower convective coverage
and warmer temperatures. PoP should fall back to near or slightly
lower than average at 30 to 40 percent each afternoon and highs
will warm into the low to mid 90s. This could help to push heat
index values closer to advisory criteria as we move into the
middle portion of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Morning coastal sh/ts will still be hanging around then decay
through the morning hours. The highest chances of TSRA during the
daylight hours will be over the Miss gulf coast and this is where
prob groups will time that activity. Otherwise VFR should be the
rule.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Surface high pressure over the Gulf will maintain winds around 5 to
10 knots varying between southerly and westerly through Saturday.
Then winds switch to generally southerly to easterly but maintain
the same 5-10 kt magnitude starting Sunday into the new week.
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible every day with winds
and waves higher in and near this activity.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE