Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
320 FXUS64 KLIX 240604 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 104 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours through the work week. A few storms could become strong to severe each day. The main threat from any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts. Frequent lightning and brief periods of very heavy rain will also be possible from these storms. Stay weather aware and remember when thunder roars, go indoors. - The increase in rain chances and cloud cover will help limit heat threats through the week, however, heat index values may still approach advisory criteria each day before thunderstorms develop by early afternoon. Those with outdoor plans should continue to take precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning if possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Upper ridge is pretty much parked between El Paso and Phoenix, with no indications that it is going anywhere this week. Basic forecast problem is timing of rounds of showers and thunderstorms triggered by shortwaves headed toward the trough axis to our east. One such shortwave is approaching Interstate 40 this morning, and is likely to trigger a round of showers and thunderstorms that should develop around midday when we reach the convective temperatures in the lower and middle 90s. Convection looks to be fairly widespread (likely an MCS) in most of the convection allowing models for the afternoon hours, with several models indicating a fairly healthy cold pool. Will not go with a Heat Advisory today, as it looks like even if we reach criteria (108F), relief should come fairly quickly. Most or all convection should be gone shortly after sunset. With CAPE values near 3000 and steep low level lapse rates and some DCAPE values in excess of 1000, there`ll be at least a short window for damaging winds across pretty much the entire area. Have no quarrel with SPC`s Day 1 Slight Risk for essentially the entire area. Considering precipitable water values could be in excess of 2 inches today, locally heavy rainfall is also an issue, per WPC`s Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). The biggest concern would be with very heavy rainfall rates overcoming drainage capabilities, which would mainly be a problem in urban areas. Overall, it`s been pretty dry this month. Additional rounds of storms are possible each afternoon, although it appears at present that today`s storms will have the greatest areal coverage and most significant impacts. If we`re to see another MCS cross the area, it would probably be Wednesday or Thursday, with the current numbers supporting Thursday. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will begin to have a cumulative effect, so we`ll need to monitor hydrologic issues as the week goes on. If there`s a bright side to the wetter pattern, it`s that there will be some relief from the heat. Current heat index forecasts would indicate outside of a brief period around midday today, we shouldn`t be needing any advisories during the midweek period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 As the weekend approaches, a shortwave disturbance should be lifting northeastward on the east side of the overall east coast long wave trough. This will cause the longer wave trough to flatten somewhat, leaving the local area in a general weakness between two highs - one centered over the southwestern CONUS and another centered over the Atlantic. With ample moisture remaining in place, daytime heating should still be enough to fire off showers and storms each afternoon, though not to the same extent as previous days. Coverage will likely be more isolated to scattered than scattered to numerous. Expect a slight/gradual warming trend as a result of the decreased convective coverage, with afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s and morning lows in the mid to upper 70s. One thing to keep an eye on concerning the southwestern CONUS high... Looking at ensemble guidance there is a non-negligible chance that the high might try to inch eastward a bit toward the local area through the weekend, which would lead to a slightly warmer and drier forecast than what is currently being advertised. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Isolated TSRA near the LA-MS state line necessitates a mention for the first couple hours in the KMCB and KHDC forecasts. VFR for the remainder of the night and remainder of the terminals. Main concern for this period will be development of TSRA by late morning or early afternoon at all terminals. While restrictions in the current forecast are MVFR, there`s certainly the potential for IFR or lower visibilities if directly impacted by a stronger storm. Will use TEMPO for timing of the highest threat, surrounded by PROB30. Most convection should dissipate near or shortly after 00z Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak and variable winds around 5 to 10 knots will become W then SW to start the week. A predominantly light southerly flow will set up by mid week and remain through the end of the week. Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....DM AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW