520
FXUS64 KLIX 252327
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
627 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Elevated fire danger will continue through mid-week. The ongoing
  drought conditions and dry fuels combined with low humidity and
  light to moderate winds will lead to potential for some fire
  spread. Residents should obey all burn bans in place and
  exercise extreme caution with any open flames outdoors even in
  areas that do not currently have burn bans in place.

- Strong winds will continue to result in hazardous conditions for
  small craft across most coastal waters of southeast Louisiana
  and Mississippi into tonight. Additional periods of strong winds
  could lead to more small craft advisories later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Through Tuesday, the strong and deep layer ridging dominating the
region will remain firmly in place resulting in a largely
persistence forecast. Winds will be from the east- northeast in
the low levels, and this will hamper any form of low level
moisture return into the area. PWATS will remain well be average
and cloud development will limited to only some fair weather
cumulus each afternoon. Temperatures will also continue to exhibit
a large diurnal range of 25 to 30 degrees due to the largely
clear skies and very dry air in place. Lows will continue to fall
into the low to mid 50s inland the upper 50s and lower 60s south
of the lake and along the immediate coast and highs will quickly
rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s each afternoon. The low
dewpoint airmass has been best reflected by the NBM 5th percentile
values, and this is what is being used for the dewpoints through
Tuesday.

The ridge axis will shift to the east toward Florida and the
southeast states from Tuesday night through Wednesday night, but
continued east-northeast flow in the low levels will continue to
hamper moisture return into the region. At most, a bit more fair
weather cumulus development can be expected, but conditions will
remain very dry. Although there will be a bit of mid-level
moisture feeding into the area as the overall ridge axis shifts to
the east, PWATS will still be well below average at around 0.7 to
0.8 inches. With the mid-levels slightly more moist, have opted to
use NBM 10th percentile values for dewpoints in Wednesday.
Otherwise, little change from the ongoing conditions is expected
with similar temperatures forecast as those forecast for Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Conditions on Thursday will remain largely unchanged from those
seen in the short term period as very dry air continues to linger
in the low levels due to persistent east-northeast flow advecting
in drier air from the Mid-Atlantic states. However, a more
vigorous southern stream shortwave trough axis will begin to eject
out of the Four Corners region Friday and then pass through the
Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. As this trough deepens out
west, a broad and weak area of low pressure will begin to form in
a region of favorable forcing over Texas. As the low deepens
Friday into Friday night, low level winds will shift to the
southeast and allow for Gulf moisture to begin feeding back into
the forecast area. PWATS will quickly climb to around 1.7 to 1.8
inches, or near the 90th percentile, by Friday afternoon and will
then continue to rise to around 2 inches for Saturday. Weak mid-
level lapse rates and limited instability will keep any
thunderstorm development from occurring on Friday and Saturday,
but the combination of deeper moisture and increased deep layer
lift over the region will support both more overcast skies and
scattered shower activity both days. The rising dewpoints will
also allow lows to warm into the 60s for Friday and Saturday
nights while highs remain near or slightly above average in the
low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR at all terminals across the area and will remain so through
the forecast period. High pressure over the area will maintain
light ENE winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A strong surface high will remain centered over the Mid-Atlantic
region today. At the same time, a broad low pressure system will
persist over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This will maintain a
tighter pressure gradient across the northern Gulf with easterly
winds remaining elevated across most of the coastal waters. A Small
Craft Advisory continues for all waters except for lakes
Pontchartrain, Maurepas, and Salvador through Monday morning as
elevated easterly winds of around 20 knots persist. These headlines
will likely remain up through much of next week as strong easterly
winds of 20 to 25 knots and seas of 5 to 8 feet continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are going to persist through the end of the week as
high pressure remains over the region. Minimum RH values will fall
to between 30 and 40 percent north of I-10 and 40 to 60 percent
south of I-10 each afternoon through Thursday.  Easterly winds will
remain near 10 mph each day. Continued drought conditions and low
fuel moisture content will keep wild fire spread potential on the
higher side, but conditions will remain above any critical values
that would require a red flag warning. By next weekend, minimum
humidity values will increase to 50 to 70 percent area wide, further
limiting fire danger potential.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534>536-
     541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ534>536-541-
     543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...PG