917
FXUS64 KLIX 302324
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
524 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 509 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - Rain slowly dissipates this afternoon.

 - The frontal boundary stalls in the northern Gulf, then a
   developing surface low on this front moves northeast bringing
   more widespread precipitation to the area Monday afternoon &
   night. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches is expected, with locally
   higher amounts.

 - This system departs early Tuesday, with much colder air
   filtering into the region. Another freeze is possible for areas
   along/north of I-10/12 Wednesday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 509 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Performed a gridded forecast package update this evening to bring
in recent short-range guidance matched with observational trends.
Everything is looking good, with what we expected as the band of
light rain has dissipated over the area. Still seeing some light
returns from New Orleans to Gulfport, so can`t rule out some
patchy drizzle in this region for the next couple of hours before
completely drying out later tonight. Did adjust temperatures to
follow observational trends which resulted in lowering the diurnal
curvature and (slightly) lowering MinT`s tomorrow morning to keep
us on the cooler/colder side of guidance, supported by building
CAA following the front sagging south into coastal areas. So
overall, quiet tonight. Still looking like a good soaker later tomorrow
for the whole area. Looked closely at hourly PoPs going into 6PM
tomorrow which, timing looks great compared to the suite of HREF
members. Only extra additional note was the potential for light
rain or drizzle ahead of this activity Monday morning, with 10-20%
PoPs for some areas. This is just in response to the increasing
WAA and developing surface low to the southwest. Likely going to
crank up PoPs tomorrow afternoon closing in on 100% and will take
a closer look at any deformation banding potential of higher QPF
with the updated suite of 00Z CAM guidance later this evening with
the main package coming up. KLG

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A southern stream shortwave is shifting to the east of the area
this morning. A northern stream trough was dropping southward
through Nevada and Utah this morning, putting the northern Gulf
Coast in zonal mid-level flow. At the surface, low pressure was
moving across the area. An area of light rain was noted over the
the area from McComb to Morgan City, but has been showing a
diminishing/dissipating trend over the last couple hours. Quite
the temperature range across Mississippi and Louisiana this
morning, with temperatures in northern portions of both states in
the lower 40s, while coastal Mississippi and areas south of Lake
Pontchartrain were near 70.

The frontal boundary will gradually slip offshore this afternoon and
evening with the current area of rain gradually dissipating. The
trough over the Intermountain West this morning will move into the
southern Plains by Monday evening, with a southern stream shortwave
moving along the northern Gulf Coast ahead of it. This will induce
at least weak cyclogenesis over the northern Gulf along the
baroclinic boundary at some point Monday. This will spread a new
rain shield northeastward into the area by Monday afternoon.

Even with extensive cloud cover, there is likely to be about a 10-
15F temperature range in low temperatures tonight. Highs on Monday
likely to range from the mid 50s far northwest to the mid 60s over
coastal Louisiana and Mississippi.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

As the upper trough moves into the Ohio River Valley Monday night
into Tuesday, it will force the southern stream shortwave across the
area, reaching Alabama around midnight Monday night as low pressure
moves into the Florida Panhandle. The main area of rain should exit
our area around midnight Monday night. As the low continues to
deepen and move northeastward toward New England by Tuesday night,
it will pull cooler and drier air into the local area, at least
temporarily. Would expect Tuesday and Wednesday to be dry across the
area in between systems.

The next upper trough will be dropping into the Four Corners region
on Wednesday with a southern stream shortwave ejecting northeastward
ahead of it from the Mexican Plateau. Moisture will return to the
local area Wednesday night, with precipitation chances increasing by
sunrise Thursday. Thursday into Friday night looks wet, to say the
least, with multiple waves of rain and thunderstorms. The
baroclinic zone looks to set up further northwest for the 2nd half
of the week than what we will see over the next 36 hours. This
will put some to most of the area in the warm sector for the 2nd
half of the week.

The main detail yet to be determined is where the bands of heaviest
rain will set up. There is likely to be a band where 2 to 4 inches
of rain occurs between 12z Thursday and 12z Saturday with the early
indications perhaps targeting the northwest half of the area. Much
of that is likely to be welcome, considering the sparse November
precipitation amounts across the area.

Temperatures will be rather chilly Monday night into at least
Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will likely remain in the 50s, and there
will most likely be patchy areas that fall to near or below freezing
Wednesday morning to the north of the Interstate 10/12 corridors.
Temperatures moderate beyond that point, with highs in the 60s and
perhaps lower 70s for Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Recent KHDC radar trends illustrate most of the -SHRA has
dissipated, with the exception of occasional drizzle from KMSY to
KGPT but will dry out going into 03Z this evening. Some patchy FG
has also developed across KMCB, and kept this mention going in
TAFs through about 02Z. Will monitor for possible AMDs if this
persists but guidance indicates probabilities of FG to dissipate
going into early tonight. Main story will be persistently low CIGs
across the region, bouncing between prevailing MVFR to periods of
IFR/LIFR. Could see some slightly improvement after 03-12Z this
evening but will monitor. Next round of more widespread SHRA
builds into the region Monday morning, with low CIG`s and reduced
VIS caused by area SHRA being the main impacts resulting in
reduced flight categories. Not anticipating much lightning near
area terminals but can`t rule it out completely. SHRA will likely
persist off/on through Monday night. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

As the frontal boundary arrives over the Gulf this afternoon and
tonight, north to northeast winds will increase. Will leave the
current headlines in place, beginning at noon CST. May need a brief
period of Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines over portions of
the waters Monday afternoon. As colder air pours over the waters
late Monday night or Tuesday, an additional Small Craft Advisory
will eventually be needed across most or all of the waters. If there
is going to be a period where conditions might be more favorable for
marine operations, it would be Wednesday into the early portion of
Thursday, before conditions deteriorate again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  57  37  50 /  10  70 100  10
BTR  45  61  39  53 /  20  80  90  10
ASD  44  65  43  56 /  10  40  90  20
MSY  52  67  47  58 /  10  50  90  10
GPT  49  66  47  59 /  20  50  90  20
PQL  45  68  46  60 /  20  40  90  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...RW