133
FXUS64 KLIX 301900
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
200 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Heat index values will be in the 105 to 110 range for most areas
  today and a heat advisory has been issued. Those with outdoor
  plans or work should take precautions to avoid heat- related
  iillnesses. Drink plenty of water, wear light- weight and
  loose- fitting clothing, and take breaks in the shade or air
  conditioning during the afternoon hours.

- Daily scattered to numerous showers and storms with the highest
  chances on Wednesday. Widespread severe weather and heavy rain
  will be low, a few storms each day could become strong to severe
  gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall. The potential will
  exist for waterspout and tornado activity as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Broad scale 594dm ridge is currently encompassing pretty much all
of the southeastern US. The center is a few hundred miles
northeast of the CWA but plenty close enough for subsidence to
hinder convective development. The GFS is pretty bullish in that
it indicates late evening complex developing INVOF the Florida
Panhandle out of discrete cells before tracking west along the
northern Gulf Coast and into the local area late evening. Some
CAMs do acknowledge some potential of this easterly wave but
generally agree that storms dissipate before reaching the CWA. A
slight drift of the center of the upper high to the northeast
Wednesday looks open the door per se to development of afternoon
storms. At the same time, that easterly wave will bring a
localized increase in atmospheric column moisture. The POPs
forecast of 50-80% accounts for those 2 changes. Will certainly
have to keep an eye out for marginally severe downbursts.

The arguably more impactful weather hazard though is heat. 500mb
heights what they are and will be tomorrow combined with mid/upper
70 degree dewpoints in place. Heat Advisory in effect today will be
extended through Wednesday. Storms that develop will provide relief
but later day initiation means many hours of heat indices 108+ for
many locations.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Monday night)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Looks like a pretty typical summertime pattern for the remainder of
the weekend and going into the holiday weekend. Global models show
northern stream trough tracking across the country will aide in
transition of upper ridge centered over the southeast US to the
Desert Southwest. In doing so, locally we`ll lose inhibition thats
been limiting storm coverage lately. Many days this upcoming week
will see storms developing initially along seabreeze convergence
boundaries. Once those storms becoming mature and then outflow
dominate, they`ll spread to other portions of the local forecast
area. Areas that don`t see storm development until later in the
day will be more likely to approach heat advisory criteria.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR will prevail outside remain through the daylight hours. By
the evening hours, TSRA will be developing and moving west
bringing IFR cigs and vis temporarily to terminals over coastal
Miss initially and sites to the west as the evening progresses. As
the high currently over the area moves out and the easterly wave
moves in, there could be some vertical wind shear created by the
late afternoon hours and could make for a bit of weak CAT. Once
TSRA start developing, shear values will be highest in and around
them.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Aside from a weak easterly wave moving through the northern Gulf
overnight tonight, the pattern will be dominated by high pressure
influences. Winds will generally be 10kts or less and direction will
vary through midweek, becoming more predominantly southerly as high
pressure builds over the eastern Gulf late in the week. The overall
gradient is relatively weak which is why winds struggle to exceed 10
kts and seas/waves mostly under a couple feet. Generally isolated to
scattered showers and storms can be expected each day, with
potential for more numerous/widespread convection on Wednesday
associated with the easterly wave. A few stronger storms could
produce gusty winds and/or waterspouts, and locally hazardous seas
during the second half of the work week.

MEFFER
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037-
     039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071-
     077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME