674
FXUS64 KLIX 011141
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
541 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Wind speeds will slack off some over the Gulf but expect them to
  remain out of the east through Monday and pick back up to 15 to
  20 knot mainly over open gulf waters. This will continue to
  create minor coastal flooding along sections of the Mississippi
  and Louisiana gulf coasts during high tide times each day
  through the weekend. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for
  locations expected to get minor coastal flooding.

- Stronger system impacts the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain
  will begin during the day Tuesday impacting election day while
  strong to severe storms look possible Tuesday night through
  early Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The remnants of Vance will linger in the area through the day,
bringing only scattered showers and light rain amounts.
Our next weather maker is already starting to slowly take shape but
it is a complete mess right now, with models treating conditions
just enough differently that Tuesday and Wednesday resolve into
more or less rain and chance for severe weather. By Monday it
should be a rather deep L/W trough having just crossed the
Continental Divide while mid lvl ridging dominates the region. As
we head into Election day things start to pick back up but the
forecast is definitely not clear cut and confidence honestly has
taken a bit of a hit with the latest medium range model guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 123 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Focus on the extended portion of the forecast is our system Tuesday
and into Wednesday. Models had come into much better agreement the
last few days well there is definitely some disagreements with
respect o how they handle the mid lvl pattern and the multitude of
features. This has lowered confidence quite considerably in the
forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday night. We will still see a pretty
decent system along with a front which will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area the question though is timing and
intensity. Because of that there were NO adjustments from the latest
NBM.

Models are struggling with how to handle everything with respect to
the large L/W trough off the west coast and the mid lvl jet coming
out of the east Pac and merging into it tomorrow night over the 4
corners region. Typically with that much wind and most of the mid
lvl jet downstream of the trough axis it should want to pull the
trough north/lift it out and along with that most of the dynamics.
There are some issues though. There will still be some strong mid
lvl winds upstream of the trough axis and then there may be another
strong s/w diving south out of Canada Monday night and into Tuesday.

A few different options then occur. First if that strong s/w
develops and dives south out of Canada it would cause the L/W trough
to rapidly close off and much farther north, over the north-central
CONUS. This would then leave a much weaker trough axis at the base
moving into the Lower MS Valley maybe even be held back to the
southwest leading to a slower time frame. This also has any sfc
reflection well north of the area and not much of a front moving
into the region. We would still see rain and some thunderstorms but
the risk for strong to severe storms would greatly be reduced. This
also may keep a good chunk of Election day on the drier side thanks
to a slower time frame.

Another option would be if that s/w doesn`t develop or is much
weaker as it drops south. It still looks like the trough would close
off given all of the energy that merges with it over the 4 corners
but it would be a much broader closed low and it would close off
farther to the southwest. This would lead to a much more defined and
sharper trough axis and possibly even take on a negative tilt as it
tries to move through Tuesday night. The main associated sfc low
would still be well north but there would likely be a weak wave
along the front farther south closer to the region. This scenario
would continue to lead to the threat of strong to severe storms
along with locally heavy rain. It also has more potential for
showers and maybe some embedded thunderstorms during the day which
would impact voting sites.

Right now this system is still in the Pacific and with this much
energy the models are struggling. We should hopefully begin to
tighten things up tomorrow as it finally begins to move into the
upper air network we start to get some better data and sampling.
With that like was said earlier stuck with the NBM which has high
PoPs Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night and then tapering off
during the day Wednesday. Rainfall amounts being advertised right
now is not overlie impressive but those will get adjusted as well
depending on how thins evolve. After this move through we move into
more zonal flow and and dry out the rest of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

IFR to MVFR cigs will rise to VFR for areas to the west first by
late morning then the remainder of the area by afternoon today.
There is still moderate chances for sh/ts so those will be timed
with PROB30 groups. Cigs are expected to be back in IFR/MVFR
levels by this evening.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Into early next week a broad surface high pressure system sits to
the north of the area. Winds will generally remain in the 10 to
15 knot range in the lakes, sounds, and bays through the weekend
and into early next. However, the open Gulf waters may see
slightly higher winds of 15 to 20 knots over this period,
resulting in choppier seas of 3 to 6 feet. Winds look like they
slack off tonight enough to keep headlines out for now but there
is a good chance the outer waters will need SCS headlines again
Sunday and possibly through Monday. This persistent east wind will
also lead to some minor coastal flooding less than one foot above
ground level for east facing shores through the remainder of the
weekend. We are already seeing some showers and a few
thunderstorms which will continue tonight and Sunday as a weak
disturbance passes through.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ070-
     076-078.

GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ086.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS