946
FXUS64 KLIX 021113
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
613 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- One last decent day of rain across the area for the rest of the
  work week, rain is still expected along the coast Wednesday.
  Temperatures will be far more seasonable Wednesday through
  Friday.

- Behind the front winds will pick up especially east of the MS
  delta and Small Craft Advisories are likely Wednesday and
  through Thursday.

- Strong easterly winds and spring tides are expected to lead to
  minor coastal flooding for portions of coastal MS and east
  facing shores of SELA east of the MS River. A Coastal Flood
  Advisory may be needed for Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

One more day of what should be scattered to possibly numerous
convection today before we see a weak backdoor cold front move
through providing a far more pleasant second half of the work week
for the region. The front is starting to work south and is already
moving into northern portions of AL and GA work back to the west-
northwest across western TN and crossing the MO Bootheel before
trailing back off to the north into southwestern IA. WV clearly
shows the east coast L/W trough digging with another deep closed
mid lvl low over the MT/Canada border. Ridging is being squeezed
between the two from TX to north of the Great Lakes. Also broad
mid lvl low over the Bay of Campeche with a lot of cirrus
streaming across the Gulf and Gulf coast states. last nights 00z
sndg had 2.07" PWs and GOES 16 TPW product indicates the PW is
still around 2.1 over much of the area.

Today, the forecast remains difficult given the lack of any real
defined synoptic features and like yesterday convection is
primarily going to be driven by boundaries. Sea/lake breeze
boundaries were the primary driver yesterday with the lake breeze
getting going a little earlier than expected and that looks like
it will be the case again. The main predicament in that forecast
are additional outflow boundaries. The first one is the one that
is currently moving across the area and at 7z radar showed it
along the western Tangipahoa parish line working down across
southwestern Lake Pontchartrain and to the southeast just off the
east coast of Plaquemines parish. It was still sliding west but
slowly and how much farther west it goes is likely to lead to some
development later. In addition there are a few other areas moving
south. One and this is the remnant boundaries or even gravity
waves that could may enter southwest MS by 9/10z. The second is a
small complex of convection driving south into northeastern LA.
This could send an outflow boundary into the northern portions of
the CWA between 12-14z. All of these will have the potential to
drive convection after we heat up along but that may be the
problem. Again there is a good bit of cirrus across the region and
given the fact that we didn`t heat up quite as much yesterday as
expected with less cloud cover initially today could be a degree
cooler with highs only in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The
convective temp was 91 on the 00z sounding and models suggest that
will be similar today and with highs only forecast to reach 90-92
in the northern half of the CWA convection may actually hold off
for some time today. Also we will be weakly in northerly flow
aloft and that typically leads to convection firing off later as
well. So, even with multiple outflow boundaries possibly
interacting together along with the sea/lake breeze convection may
not fire till early afternoon.

As for the strong/severe aspect, this doesn`t look quite as
concerning as yesterday had it look. There are some indications
we could see some slightly drier air in the LL drop down in the
region however, looking at current obs there is still quite a bit
of 70+ dewpoints across much of central and even northern MS, so
not quite sure where the CAMs are getting this drier air to drop
the dewpoints into the upper 60s. Combine that with the highs only
peaking out around 91, the instability lvls we saw yesterday that
were expected for today are substantially lower. CAPE values may
only approach 3k J/kg instead of the 4-4300 that much of the
guidance was showing. Also even though we may be moving into
northerly flow it is very weak with h5 winds only expected to be
around 5 to maybe as high as 10 kts. We will still have an area of
LL confluence likely around and just north of the I-12 corridor.
With all of this biggest question is the outflow boundary
currently moving west across the area and what impacts that may
have through the morning hours. It should help to spark more
convection over the coastal waters over the next 3-4 hours but
with it already west of Lake P only spotty light showers are
expected inland from it. That said it may be the first catalyst
for convection once we start to heat up. If not I am not expecting
a lot of development from the other two features moving south
into the area later this morning. Convection will likely begin to
bubble up mid afternoon with the greatest coverage across the FL
parishes between 22 and 2/3z.

After that convection should quickly begin to dissipate to push
south becoming confined to the coastal areas as the front moves
into the region. The front will get into the inner waters
overnight with slightly drier and cooler air working into the
area. H925 temps will fall to around 19/20C for Wednesday and
that only equates to around 82-85 degrees for a high which is a
good 3 to 7 degrees below normal. Drier air will continue to
work into the LL and there are indications that dewpoints may
eventually drop into the mid to upper 50s across the northeastern
quadrant of the CWA. Looking mainly at areas east of I-55 and
north of 10/12. This would promote morning lows in the mid 60s to
lower 70s for much of the area but if the dewpoints are able to
drop into the 50s across some areas I could easily see a few sites
falling into the lower 60s maybe even bottoming out around 59,
looking mainly at MCB and the drainage areas like PQL, BXA, and
ASD.

Again a rather large and stout area of high pressure will build at
the sfc over the Appalachians becoming centered over the the
TN/AL/GA/NC border midday Thursday. This high will dominate much
of the eastern CONUS. That along with a weak wave over the central
Gulf will begin to tighten the pressure gradient and lead to
continued moderate to strong easterly to east-southeasterly winds.
With strong easterly winds over the waters east of the MS delta
beginning Wednesday and continuing through Thursday we will begin
to pile the water up along coastal MS and east facing showers and
SELA. This is going to coincide with the Spring tide and latest
indications are that we could see tides Thursday around 1.5 to
2.4` feet MHHW (basically the known problems areas around Waveland
and immediate coastal areas of St Bernard and Plaquemines could
see isolated locations with 1.5 to 2.5 feet of inundation). Not
going to issue a Coastal Flood Adv yet as this is the first
indication of this and if winds take on more of a southeasterly
direction faster Thursday or that wave is not as strong in the
central Gulf we may not pile up quite as much water. However,
because we maintain more of an easterly wind Wednesday through
Thursday and then only begin to become more east-southeasterly
thursday evening or possibly even Friday. The coastal flooding
problems that tend to catch us off guard are the ones where the
winds have more of an easterly component and not necessarily as
much southeasterly and especially southerly. This is because with
those winds the water could still escape to the east but with an
strong easterly to east-southeasterly wind the water gets trapped
by the LA coast and with no where to go it just starts to pile
up. Luckily this is occurring this week and not last week when the
rivers were all much higher and we were still getting a good bit
of rain. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Return to active summertime pattern comes into full swing this
upcoming weekend. The upper level ridge that`s centered over and
encompassing the southeastern US Friday will be sliding out into
the Western Atlantic. That position change relative to the CWA
results in a meaningful reduction in subsidence aloft. At the same
time, deep Gulf moisture will be ushered in with PW`s possibly
approaching records for this time of year. So shouldn`t be any
surprise that POPs increase so much and we probably end up with
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms
develop each day along outflow boundaries, lake and sea breezes as
we reach convective temperatures, which will generally be in the
mid 80s. From there, expect coverage to ramp up considerably.
Localized flash flooding will certainly be a threat with potential
for very high rainfall rates along with outflow boundary
interactions with storms possibly stagnating movement for periods
of time. Mid level lapse rates will be fairly weak and 500 mb
temperatures pretty warm at -5 or -6C, so the threat of severe
weather should be pretty low.

As noted above, convective temperatures will generally be in the mid
80s, so high temperatures probably won`t get much warmer than that.
Overnight lows are likely to be in the 70s. /MEFFER/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

All terminals with the exception of BTR are in VFR at TAF
issuance. BTR was indicating fog and low cigs leading to LIFR
conditions this morning and looking at traffic cameras every
around BTR was clear but directly over the airport there was some
fog and low cigs but that will quickly improve this morning.
Biggest concern again today is convection and when it will
initiate. Storms should begin to fire north of the tidal lakes
around 19/20z with HDC, ASD, and perhaps MCB seeing impacts first.
MSY, NEW, and GPT could also see impacts early/mid afternoon but
those areas don`t appear to be quite as promising until later in
the afternoon and mainly between 22 and 03z. All terminals are
likely to see some impacts sometime between late this afternoon
and mid to late evening. Obviously both reduced vsbys and lowered
cigs will are expected with convection along with gusty winds.
/CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

High pressure will begin to break down over the Gulf as a weak
backdoor cold front moves into the coastal waters overnight.
Outside of any thunderstorms activity winds will remain light
through tonight as the front approaches with winds around 10 knots
or less and seas will remain below 2 feet. However an outflow
boundary currently moving across the coastal waters from east to
west will likely continue to spark additional showers and
thunderstorms which will lead to locally higher winds and seas
with winds possibly approaching 35-40 kts through this morning.
That backdoor cold front will drift across the coastal waters
tonight and early Wednesday. After it moves through winds will
shift to easterly and will increase in speed, especially the
waters east of the MS Delta where solid SCY conditions are
expected Wednesday. The front will stall and washout by Thursday
and as high pressure builds over the southern Appalachians the
pressure gradient will increase leading to moderate onshore flow
returning. Small Craft Advisory expected for Wednesday and may be
needed later this week.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB