606
FXUS64 KLIX 071736
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are forecast throughout the
  forecast period. The overall severe weather threat will be low,
  but one or two storms could become strong to severe each day.

- Primary threats with storms will be strong wind gusts, frequent
  lightning and periods of heavy rain leading to localized flash
  flooding.

- Above normal temperatures expected for most of the 7-Day
  forecast period. Afternoon heat indices will generally range
  from 100 to 108 degrees. Heat Advisories have been issued for
  the region today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Upper troughs across the northwest and northeast corners of the
country this morning, with an upper ridge from Texas north-northeast
into Minnesota. An easterly wave was off the Florida coast this
morning. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Great
Lakes and the southern Gulf, with a weak frontal boundary north of
Interstate 20. While most convection has been offshore this morning,
there has been shower and thunderstorm development around Lake
Pontchartrain.

Even though this morning`s LIX upper air sounding had a precipitable
water value of 2.27, lifted index of -6 and 3100 CAPE, the convection
allowing models show very little in the way of convection across
our area through at least mid-afternoon (21z), and that has been
the case so far. Any convection that does develop, though, will
have the potential for damaging winds as indicated by the 1000
DCAPE in the sounding.

The easterly wave is expected to pass just south of the Louisiana
coast tomorrow and tomorrow night. That should trigger another round
of isolated to scattered showers tomorrow, especially south of
Interstate 10. The upper ridge is gradually expected to split
somewhere around the Texas Louisiana border by Wednesday night into
Thursday, with better areal coverage (scattered to numerous) of
showers and thunderstorms across the area.

Precipitable water values are expected to remain near or above the
75th percentile (1.9 inches) and occasionally rise above the 90th
percentile (2.1 inches). This will continue the threat of at least
isolated flash flooding issues through Thursday. The wind threat may
not be quite as significant, but we`ll see.

High temperatures are likely to reach the mid 90s this afternoon,
but should moderate to a level much closer to average by Wednesday
and Thursday, which is now in the upper 80s to around 90. Will
defer decision on Heat Advisory for tomorrow to evening/mid shift,
as it looks borderline at this point based on forecast
temperatures/dew points.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Upper ridging will build back eastward, again, over the weekend into
early next week. It`ll be centered near Little Rock on Monday. That
will return hot air to areas to our north. Locally, it`ll just keep
things hot, with a day to day potential for afternoon thunderstorms.
Forecast soundings continue to keep moisture in place through next
Monday with values generally between the 75th and 90th
percentiles. Those soundings appear to be a bit more favorable for
heavy rain than they would be for damaging winds.

Not much day to day change in temperatures with highs around 90.
Would note that if upper ridge would build a bit further south, we
could see temperatures warmer than currently forecast, but won`t
mess with the current trends for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Generally VFR conditions for most of the forecast period at all
terminals, with PROB30 used to cover scattered afternoon convection
with brief MVFR ceilings and IFR or lower visibilities. Haven`t
seen much in the way of wind gusts with convection, but won`t be
surprised to see gusts around 30 knots with outflow. Evening
shift will need to consider whether to carry mention of BR/FG in
overnight TAFs, but that`s going to be dependent on where storms
occur this afternoon. Tomorrow`s conditions are expected to be
just about a carbon copy of today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The pressure gradient will remain weak through the period with
generally benign background marine conditions. Winds should mostly
remain around 10 knots or less with seas around 1 to 2 feet through
the short term. The primary marine concern will continue to be
thunderstorms. Deep moisture remaining over the northern Gulf will
favor scattered convection over the coastal waters, particularly
during the late night and morning hours before the focus shifts
inland with the sea breeze during the afternoon.

Daily thunderstorm chances continue through the remainder of the
week and may increase somewhat late in the week as the upper ridge
weakens and troughing becomes more influential. Outside of
convection, conditions should remain well below advisory criteria.
The stronger storms will remain capable of locally gusty winds and
briefly higher waves.


&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW