587
FXUS64 KLIX 162341
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
641 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected for much of the forecast. Highs
  mainly in the upper 90s to the low 100s with heat index values
  climbing into the lower to mid 110s. Excessive Heat Warnings are
  in effect for Monday. Beyond Monday Heat Advisories are
  anticipated. The impact of the afternoon highs will be
  exacerbated by the slightly higher than normal overnight lows.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

As has been the case the last several nights, areal coverage of
convection began to shrink considerably once the sun angle got
lower around 6 PM CDT. Expect most or all of the precipitation to
be gone well before 9 PM CDT. Adjusted hourly temperature grids to
refelct where we got cooling over the last few hours. Will retain
hazard grids where they are currently. RW

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

High pressure continues to dominate the weather. Hot and dry
continue to be the headlines. Today and tomorrow are looking to
be the hottest days we`ve had in this stretch, so the heat index
continues high and results in an Extreme Heat Warning for today
and tomorrow. We do have a bit of cooling coming Tuesday and
Wednesday, on the order of a couple of degrees, and this will
reduce the heat impact to a Heat Advisory level.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

By Thursday we see a low pressure trough begin intruding into the
area from the north. It begins as a weakness in the current
ridging and eventually reaches at least near our southwest MS
counties. This will bring a touch of relief from the heat, but
don`t get your hopes up because highs will still be in the
mid-90s. The weakness will also bring a bit higher chance of rain
on Friday and Saturday, perhaps showing PoPs in the 40-50% range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Convective activity decreasing rapidly and we may be totally
without echoes prior to 8 PM CDT. VFR overnight into Monday
morning before convection redevelops Monday afternoon. PROB30 mention
in most TAFs will be beyond 18z Monday. Most impacts should be
MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Benign marine conditions will continue through the forecast period
with high pressure mostly being in control. Isolated nightly storms
will be possible mainly toward sunrise. For the winds, expect
variable direction through midweek locking in to easterly from
midweek through the end of the period at or less than 10 knots
outside any storms. Waveheights will remain in the 1-2 foot range.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-
     039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None.
MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-
     077-083>088.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...DS