Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
315 FXUS64 KLIX 241038 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 538 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 523 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 - Relatively benign and dry weather continues through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026 Not much in the way of dry air intrusion yesterday, but there is a slow filtering. Now the bulk of this dry air is moving into the area this morning and is past McComb so far. Many locations will be waking up to less humid conditions. There could be some layered fog developing along and ahead of where the front is actually moving through, which should be south shore locations. This is not expected to cause any issues at the moment. The dry air stay through the weekend with some fluctuations in dew pt temps but what you get today will be what is in store through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026 Heading into the extended portion of the forecast and the end of September it still looks like it will be hot and dry. However, one little positive note, more and more signs suggest we should finally see a legit front or two early in October, fingers crossed. But until then highs are going to likely climb into the 90s through the end of the month for much of the area. Overall the medium range operational models and their respective ensemble means are in fairly good agreement through at least Tuesday but after that we begin to see some differences in the guidance. The bigger differences occur as we head deeper into the work week which is outside of the current forecast package so with that no major changes planned from the latest NBM. As mentioned last night, as we heading into the new work week the mid lvls will be dominated by a large closed low over the Atlantic coast Sunday night, a ridge centered over northern Mexico with the ridge axis extending north along the lee of the Rockies and then north-northeast into the Upper MS Valley, and the next trough already moving in over the Pac coast. Over the next few days the west coast trough will continue to slide east suppressing the ridge. At the same time the closed low over the Atlantic will open up and lift out. This will lead to the ridge axis sliding east even through the ridge itself will get suppressed. The northwest flow will break down and we will continue to remain hot and dry for Monday and Tuesday. Isolated convection is possible Monday and Tuesday afternoon but overall much of the area will remain dry. Highs will climb into the lower 90s for most of the area. The only locations that may remain out of the 90s look to be coastal MS and coastal LA where onshore flow probably helps to keep those sites in the upper 80s. Heading into Wednesday this is where the guidance starts to diverge. Some are much stronger and sharper with the west coast trough and continue to plow it into the Plains Wednesday. Others are weaker and more broad sliding it east-northeasst into the Plains a little slower, and another set show it much weaker and completely detached from the northern stream and bringing rain into the Lower MS Valley maybe Friday. With that confidence is low in the forecast for Wednesday and beyond but as mentioned earlier there are indications that a front may finally be on the way as the calendar changes to October. Looking at the record highs across the area, overall it doesn`t look like we will be threatening much in the way of record highs. Most of the area has records in the mid to upper 90s but there are a few locations that don`t have as extensive a length of record that have one or two in the lower 90s. If we heat up around the NBM75 and NBM90 probs then it`s possible one or two could be close. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 VFR through this cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026 A cold front that moved through the coastal waters yesterday will strengthen northerly to northeasterly winds and build seas through Thursday. Winds should remain around 15 knots during this period. Winds shift to more easterly by the end of the week with speeds at or below 20 knots. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE