127
FXUS64 KLIX 052317
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
617 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- A weak tropical wave will continue to slowly approach the LA
  coast this weekend. This is leading to moderate winds and will
  drive rich Gulf moisture north into the area through the
  weekend.

- Strong easterly to east-southeasterly winds will continue this
  evening leading to hazardous marine conditions and minor coastal
  flooding. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all of
  the coastal waters. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect
  for all coastal areas except surrounding the tidal lakes through
  tonight.

- Abundant moisture will help lead to numerous to widespread light
  to moderate showers and embedded thunderstorms through the
  weekend. Areas east of I-55 and along and south of the 10/12
  corridors will have the greatest risk of seeing locally heavy
  rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Isolated to scattered showers are occuring across portions of the
central Gulf Coast this afternoon. Very brief showers are moving
generally southeast to northwest as a plume of tropical moisture
tries to work its way into the region from the Gulf. At this
juncture it appears the moisture or at least the better tropical
moisture is delayed somewhat, which is leading to lower coverage
during this diurnal cycle. We still have a few hours for more
concentrated or more numerous showers and storms to develop as
peak heating meets up with gradually higher ticking moisture
levels. After heating decreases that afternoon, there will be a
downward trend to more isolated activity with most focused over
the waters. Speaking of waters, the low level flow will begin to
decrease later tonight and during the day Saturday, which will
disrupt the continued fetch over the waters allowing for coastal
flood potential to decrease after the next high tide cycle.

Rain chances will again continue for Saturday as more tropical
moisture is fed into the region from the Gulf. That said, CAMs are
a bit messy with some showing lesser amounts/chances than others.
Globals like GFS and ECMWF still show a decent signal, so POPs
were left relatively unchanged. The axis of best moisture and lift
(where the heaviest precip will reside) still looks to be east of
the I55 corridor or more specifically the Pearl River Basin to the
Pascagoula River Basin. This is not good news for locations in
between that have recently experienced higher amounts of rainfall
recently. Because of this localized flash flooding will continue
to be of concern for these areas as well as urban areas of New
Orleans. With Pwat values above 2.1" any shower or storm activity
will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and likely some
localized flooding concerns.

Rain chances continue into Sunday, but we will finally start
watching an H5 592dam ridge nose eastward over the northern Gulf.
This will begin to suppress rain chances going into the new
workweek. With the suppression of rainfall and increasing
heights, expect temperatures to respond by being several degrees
warmer. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Long range trends continue to be mostly dry but not completely
rain free with diurnally driven isolated activity possible during
the afternoon and evening hours. That said, any activity will be
the exception rather than the rule given again the continued upper
level ridge suppressing things just a bit with modest subsidence.
Again, just like the tail end of the short term, the long term
will be characterized by continued lower rain chances and higher
temperatures with daytime highs exceeding 90 degrees in most spots
and heat index values approaching the 100 degree mark during the
afternoon and early evening hours. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

MVFR conditions prevail at all area airports due to low ceilings
from scattered to numerous shallow showers and storms across the
area. These storms will continue off and on throughout the
forecast period especially during peak daytime heating hours, and
TEMPO and PROB30 groups are in effect to reflect this forecast
for lower visibilities and ceilings. Some locations could drop to
IFR conditions in those TEMPO group periods. Wind shifts greater
than 30 degrees will be expected throughout the forecast period.
MSW


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Tight pressure gradient remains over the local waters this
afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all gulf
waters and local tidal lakes. Eventually, the pressure gradient will
begin to relax overnight tonight allowing for improving conditions
by Saturday morning. Overall, light to moderate seas are anticipated
to start the new workweek and lasting through the end of the
forecast cycle. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be
possible with the higher coverage early in the forecast period.
Winds and seas will locally be high in and near convection. (Frye)

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058-
     070-076>078-080-082-084-087-091-093-095-097-098.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ529-531-
     533-541-543-551-553-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534>536-
     554-557-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ531-533-
     541-543-551-553-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ534>536-554-
     557-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...RDF