Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
250 FXUS64 KLIX 101857 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1257 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1234 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Little or no rain expected through Saturday. - A strong cold front will bring low rain chances Sunday. - Colder weather to start off the next workweek. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1234 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Dry conditions will persist through Friday night over the area as a consistent west and northwest flow pattern ushers in drier air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. This dry airmass will keep PWATS below average through the period and little cloud development is anticipated until Friday when low level return flow may allow a few strato-cumulus clouds to form. Temperatures will gradually modify through the period as a surface high shifts to the east and low level southerly flow takes hold. Lows will drop quickly tonight into the 30s and 40s due to the clear skies and dry airmass in place, but the dry air will also allow temperatures to climb to near average by tomorrow afternoon. Another cool night will take place Thursday night as dry conditions continue with lows falling back into the 30s and 40s. However, the increased onshore flow on Monday will allow some warmer air to advect in, and this will raise highs to near 70. Moisture will also increase in the low levels, and the overnight lows will only cool into the 50s for Friday night. Will need to monitor for fog development Friday night as the dewpoints rise. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1234 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 The northwest flow pattern will continue in the mid and upper levels on Saturday and Sunday helping to keep the airmass dry. However, a very potent cold front will sweep through the region on Sunday as a strong reinforcing shortwave feature dives into the eastern half of the CONUS from Canada. Although the moisture will be limited, there may be just enough forcing to spark off a few showers late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the front pushes through. Otherwise, this will be a dry frontal passage. Temperatures will plunge from near 70 on Saturday into the 50s and 60s on Sunday and then into the 50s on Monday. Lows will also crater with readings dropping into the 20s and 30s Sunday night and the 30s and 40s Monday night. The longwave trough will quickly depart by Tuesday as fast moving southern stream system approaches from the west. Deep layer onshore flow will form and warmfrontogenesis will take place over the area Tuesday night. This will support increaased rain chances as the warm and moist air is isentropically forced over the still cooler and more stable surface layer. Increased positive vorticity advection and favorable jet structure will also support cloud and rain development over the region by Tuesday night. The NBM handles this well, and the forecast sticks with the NBM output in the extended period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions will be the rule as a dry high pressure system remains parked over the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A cold front moving through the coastal waters will briefly increase winds and seas again tonight into Thursday, with 15 to 20 knot sustained winds expected over most waters. Another stronger front will move through the waters late in the weekend, with small craft advisory conditions expected Sunday into Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 35 59 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 38 60 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 37 60 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 46 59 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 39 60 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 36 60 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...PG MARINE...PG