Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
872 FXUS64 KLIX 241833 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1233 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 - A cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the area tonight through Tuesday. There is a low chance (level 1-2 of 5) of severe weather with these storms. IF any storms become severe, the main threat will be damaging wind gusts which can result in downed tree limbs and power outages as well as minor damage to some structures. - A major cool down will follow the cold front. The coldest temperatures are forecast Friday morning, with lows generally in the mid to upper 30s across areas along/north of the I-10/12 corridor. A few places could briefly touch freezing - mainly across SW MS, and within the Pearl and Pascagoula River drainage areas. - Strong winds over the coastal waters in the wake of the cold front will lead to hazardous conditions for small craft. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Wednesday afternoon through at least midday Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 1230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 A shortwave trough/disturbance located over the plains states will move eastward through tonight, gradually flattening as it does so. The surface front associated with this system currently stretches from northern Oklahoma through central Texas. Scattered to numerous showers and storms have developed ahead of the frontal boundary in a confluence zone stretching from northeastern Arkansas to southern Texas. This convective activity will also progress eastward through tonight but will lose some of its support as it approaches the local area. Not only will it be approaching overnight without the benefit of daytime heating, the upper trough driving it eastward will start to flatten and lift toward the northeast. Despite these factors, the right entrance region of a strengthening 850mb jet will pass over the area late tonight into tomorrow morning, so the thunderstorm threat cannot be ignored. Model forecast soundings still indicate modest CAPE (around 1000 J/kg in some areas) and shear as the storms approach, so any storms that do make it into the local area will have some potential to become strong to locally severe. This first wave of activity looks to die out by mid morning Tuesday, with a second round of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. By this time, the 850mb jet will have pulled away from the local area, and CAPE and shear will be more limited. While one or two strong storms can`t be ruled out, the overall severe weather threat appears low. The longer wave upper trough finally pushes the surface front through the local area Tuesday night with much cooler and drier air moving in behind it. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Colder and drier high pressure will build into the area in the wake of the cold front beginning Wednesday. By Wednesday night, expect temperatures to drop well below normal setting up for a cool Thanksgiving Day. Morning lows are forecast to bottom out in the upper 30s and lower 40s north and in the mid to upper 40s south, with highs only rebounding into the low to mid 60s. The coldest temperatures will be Thursday night into Friday morning as the axis of the surface high pressure moves over the local area. MOS guidance has been trending downward over the last several runs, and is indicating potential for freezing conditions in some areas Friday morning. The NBM has not been so bullish, but it should be noted the deterministic NBM is one of the warmest solutions, with its forecast lows sitting around or above its own 75th percentile across roughly the northeastern half of the local area. With that being said, have made some downward adjustments nudging toward the 50th percentile across areas generally along/east of I-55 and along/north of I-10/12. Current forecast will keep temperatures just above freezing everywhere, but further adjustments may be necessary and an hour or two of temperatures near or just below freezing cannot be ruled out - especially across southwestern Mississippi and through the Pearl and Pascagoula drainage areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Biggest concern through the period will be potential for lower cigs/vsbys associated with showers and thunderstorms overnight. Greatest threat of thunderstorms will be across northern terminals, but overall chances really only justify PROB30 groups. Main timing will be late tonight into Tuesday morning. A second wave of showers and a few storms could redevelop Tuesday afternoon, though the best chances will be after 18z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 A warm front located near the coast will move inland today as a cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the cold front, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters beginning late tonight. A tightening pressure gradient will also cause winds to strengthen and exercise caution headlines have been issued for portions of the outer waters late tonight. The front will finally move through the coastal waters Tuesday night, with high pressure building over the area in its wake. The combination of cold air advection over the relatively warm waters, and the pressure gradient between the high and low will cause winds to strengthen into the 20-25kt range and Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Wednesday afternoon through at least midday Thursday. As the high settles into the area later in the week, winds will ease and turn back to the southeast as the high shifts east of the area by Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 64 78 52 65 / 60 60 20 0 BTR 67 80 54 68 / 50 50 20 0 ASD 65 81 55 70 / 30 40 20 10 MSY 69 83 60 72 / 30 30 20 10 GPT 66 78 59 72 / 30 40 30 10 PQL 62 80 57 73 / 30 40 40 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM....DM AVIATION...DM MARINE...DM