497
FXUS64 KLIX 240014 CCA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
613 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

 - A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for southwest Mississippi and
   a portion of southeast Louisiana for potential of freezing rain
   this weekend.

 - Extreme Cold Watch is now in effect for all of the area Sunday
   night through Tuesday morning. Winds chills could range from
   near 0 to 15 degrees Monday morning and from the mid single
   digits to upper teens Tuesday morning.

 - A Small Craft Advisory(SCY) and a Gale Watch(GLA) have been
   issued for all of the coastal waters. The SCY begins Saturday
   night and continues through Sunday for strong onshore winds
   ahead of a developing surface low. The GLA is for Sunday night
   into monday morning for the possibility of very strong winds
   out of the northwest behind the cold front that will move
   through Sunday and early Sunday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

It has been a mostly dreary yet quiet day weather-wise across our
area, possibly the quiet before the storm but again the bulk of
the impacts are still expected to remain off to our north and
northwest but maybe not as far away now as the shift north has
come to an end and a slight shift southward is starting to be
advertised. The front that stalled across the coastal waters was
remains anchored on the edge of our outer waters. The humid cool
environment allowed patchy dense fog to remain over isolated
locations through midday today. Low clouds also hung around most
of the day but the stratus has finally started to clear out some
but still a lot of mid and upper level clouds in the SW/WSW flow
aloft.

The Winter Storm has begun already across portions of the
southern/central Plains and this will spread east and east-
northeast over the next 2-3 days. It is still looking like a major
to historic winter/ice storm across portions of the Deep South and
well to the east-northeast. However we are going to be right on
the edge and there will be a lot of eyes closely watching the
freezing line Saturday night and early Sunday. However prior to
that we do have some other minor impacts to watch.

Overnight tonight not really seeing any impacts. With the front
stalled well to the south and not anticipated to start moving back
to the north until late tomorrow fog doesn`t look like a big
concern tonight. We are also between impulses right now as well
so there shouldn`t really be any rain tonight and likely not see
much until midday tomorrow at the earliest. It is at that point
that another subtle impulse currently moving across Mexico and
northeast into far southern TX approaches the area. Even though
the front will still be south of the region to start the day as
that impulse approaches it will begin to induce cyclogenesis
across the western Gulf tomorrow morning/midday. As it slowly
develops and deepens it will increase the winds out of the south
over the coastal water and start to nudge the boundary back to the
north. WAA along the coast and south of I-10 across south-central
and southeastern LA tomorrow afternoon will draw the sfc low to
the northeast. This will start to put the southern 3rd possibly
half of the CWA in a modified warm sector. The northern half of
the area will still be on the cool side and likely remain that way
even most of the night Saturday night as an inverted trough
eventually develop southwest to northeast bisecting the CWA. This
will likely be the path the sfc low traverses(this could be very
key in out winter potential Sunday so we will need to watch that
closely). With the srn 3d/half of the CWA able to get into
somewhat of  a warm sector there is a shot of sfc based
convection and that will occur during the mid/late afternoon hours
and into the evening with that impulse currently approaching
southern TX. Overall the svr risk is not that great but given an
actual impulse, the strengthening, location, and track of the sfc
low there is better than a non-zero chance of strong to severe
storms. And honestly the greatest concern would be short lived
quickly developing tornadoes. There will be a lot of shear to
work. 50 kts of 0-6km bulk shear and 0-1 and 0-3 SRH of greater
than 200 and 300 m2/s2 respectively and these shallow storms will
likely exhibit rotation and probably rather impressive rotation. A
few may be capable of dropping a tornado or two so locations
mainly south of I-10 late tomorrow afternoon and evening will need
to stay weather aware. This impulse finally moves out late
evening and then we will be in another holding pattern until the
main feature starts to move through TX and into the Lower MS
Valley overnight and through Sunday. This is where the forecast
gets very tricky and with anything from a few strong to severe
storms, a miserable cold rain, to a knuckle biting event watching
the freezing line and the slight potential for an ice storm moving
into the far northwest. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 344 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The forecast for Sunday is very tricky and very small changes will
mean the world with respect to impacts. This system will already
be well under way likely bringing crippling impacts to portions of
TX, northern LA, AR, and into northern MS through much of the day
Saturday. The culprit is multiple features coming together to get
a very strong Winter Storm that by the end of Monday will impact
areas from TX to the northeast CONUS. Already a few systems have
helped to bring the cold air south out of Canada and working well
into the US. There is already teens across OK at this time and
mid 20s moving into central AR. With cold air already in place the
trough axis of a developing L/W is already working south across
the PAC coast and will dig into the 4 corners tomorrow. What this
is doing though is it will draw a deep closed low west of the Baja
east tonight and into Mexico tomorrow. This increase the
southwest flow aloft over the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley
thus increasing the overall lift and moisture across the region.
This low moving across Mexico is the main forcing and depending on
how fast it opens up and where it moves will have big
implications on snow/freezing rain locations. If it doesn`t open
up as fast and lifts northeast across TX and into the Lower MS
Valley then there is a better chance of a colder more impactful
solution hitting us. If it opens quickly lifts across western TX
and into the southern Plains by Sunday morning then a warmer
solution will be in store for us. The trend the previous 24-36
hours through last night had been north and warmer but that
appears to have come to an end and over the last 6-12 the latest
trend especially by the CAMs but even some of the Global models
including the GEM which had almost no winter precip over our area
yesterday has been slightly cooler and nudging back to the south.
This is getting the far northwestern sections of our CWA on a very
narrow line of possibly a light glaze to perhaps full blown ice
storm. It is so close right now that only a minor adjustment will
mean significant impacts. This isn`t as much of a surprise though,
many times if there is a big trend one direction by the models in
the 5-2/2.5 day range that tends to eventually stop with a slight
correction back the other way and that may be what is occuring
now, especially as we are now able to better sample the
disturbances.

So what are we looking at right now the best forecast shows the
freezing line either right on our border or only a few miles to
the northwest by sunrise Sunday. The sfc low will quickly move to
the northeast as a mid lvl jet rapidly intensifies across the
Lower MS Valley. The increasing lift already will have a rather
large shield of precipitation across much of LA and MS along and
well behind the cold front. As that mid lvl jet intensifies the
efficiency and strength of the precipitation and convection will
increase and there could be thunderstorms over portions of
northeast LA and into central/northern MS producing very heavy
freezing rain. This will eventually lead to the precipitation
shield tightening up with a harder back edge developing
throughout the day and that back edge is one thing we will watch
but the key is how dense and strong is the boundary layer cold
air. Can it dig into our area fast enough before that back edge
moves through. Models have historically struggled to fully realize
the shallow cold dense airmasses and if that is the case again
then we could have a problem across portions of southwest MS and
into adjacent parish of LA, east of I-55 and perhaps even as far
south as the BR metro. Many of the CAMs and regional models have
slightly shifted south and some are not holding onto 4-6 hours or
more of moderate to even heavy rain and a sfc temps of 33-36...the
entire time. As progressive as everything is I do have a little
bit of a hard time believing northwest areas like Wilkinson county
along with northern Pointe Coupee and West Feliciana would be
sitting at 33-36 for that long as the cod front continues to surge
southeast through the late morning and midday hours. If Sunday
morning gets here and the freezing line is sitting on the border
of the CWA by or before sunrise then it is likely we could be
trying to catch up as the accumulating freezing rain potential
will increase and could increase rather significantly for a a few
parishes and counties and even the potential for a light
accumulation could expand farther southeast.

Luckily the one thing with this forecast is there is a lot of
confidence in precip type for our area. It is either RAIN or
FREEZING RAIN...one or the other. There doesn`t seem to be any
real potential for snow or sleet given how strong that warm nose
is. Even as the deeper cold air starts to move in and the warm
nose shrinks the moisture will be moving out. So at this time we
decide to not make any adjustment to the current Winter Storm
Watch. Would like the see if the trend continues to the south and
colder and there is still low confidence with respect to the
location of the freezing line. The forecast tonight will take
another stab at it and there is the chance that we could upgrade
some locations to a Winter Weather Advisory while still keeping
the Winter Storm Watch in place on the periphery of the Advisory.
There is even a chance that we could place one or two
counties/parishes in an Ice Storm Warning with the Advisory and
Watch to the southeast. If we go with an Ice Storm Warning it is
likely to be either just Wilkinson County but Amite County along
with northern Pointe Coupee and West Feliciana will be on the edge
as well.

The other aspect for Sunday could once again be the potential for
severe weather across coastal MS and extreme coastal SELA. Given
the latest forecast track of the sfc low the southeastern 3rd of
the CWA would be the only area to get into the warm sector and
this could be a more bonafide warm sector and will be on the LRQ
of the strengthening LL jet leading to much higher LL confluence.
That would be along and just ahead of the cold front. The rapidly
increasing lift and mid lvl flow could get a possible small
squall-lione like structure trying to develop and that would lead
to a window for a few strong to severe storms in the previously
mentioned area. SPC does have that location in a Marginal Risk on
day 3.

Cold front moves through quickly Sunday and precip shuts down from
west to east. A very key feature to watch is how quick the shut
down is. A few things to mention the northern 3rd/half of the CWA
will likely get a more prolonged and heavier precip before the
precip comes to an end leading to a loot more moisture that could
still be on the ground and bridges heading into the night. In
addition if the precip lingers one into the late afternoon or
hopefully not evening that that will lead to a shorter time
between the end of the precip and the arrival of the very cold air
which will quickly drop the air temp to freezing. Also if the cold
air is faster and stronger and is right on the cold fronts tail
or quickly moves in behind the precip that could be a small
issue. If there is a good 5 to 6 hours between the end of precip
and arrival of the cold air then there will be a better chance for
roads but mainly bridges and overall passes to dry, especially
given the very gusty conditions expected behind the cold front.
The winds will be a key feature in helping to dry things out.
However areas that get heavier precip if it doesn`t dry out or the
bridge/overpass is sheltered/protected from the wind and the cold
air arrives we will very quickly drop to freezing late afternoon
and early evening. This will provide the potential for some areas
to see the so called dreaded Black Ice. Right now we aren`t
anticipating a lot of problems from this scenario but it is
something to keep a close eye on as it could make a few areas
Monday morning a little touch and go if there is isolated to
scattered slick spots.

One last thing to really touch on and drive across everyone, it
looks like it will be cold and very cold Sunday night and likely
though Tuesday morning. Some locations of southwest Ma and
adjacent LA parishes may even struggle to get about freezing Mon
day afternoon and even if they do it will likely be 3-6 hours at
best and by only a few degrees. We have already issued an Extreme
Cold Watch for the entire area for both mornings. Monday morning
will be a combination of very cold temperatures but also strong
winds leading to wind chill readings near 0 across southwest MS
and even as cold as lower to mid teens across the New Orleans
Metro. The rest of the area will see minimum wind chills values in
the single digits to lower teens Monday morning. Lows will range
from the mid teens to mid 20s for most of the area. But that is
not all and likely not the colder of the two morning. Because we
won`t heat up much Monday we will head into Monday night colder
than we were Sunday night and as high pressure builds over the
area the radiational cooling potential will be quite favorable.
Light winds through the first 1-2k ft, clear skies, and dewpoints
in the teens (with the amount of rain and likely a lot of ice
north of the area single digit dewpoint swill be hard to come by)
the stage is set for temps to just plummet over night and
currently we are carrying morning lows form the lower teens in
southwest MS to even upper teens and lower 20s in the River
Parishes. This is extremely cold for the area and outside of the
January Winter Storm last year could be some of the coldest temps
we have seen since 2018 or 2014 for most of the area. The strength
of the cold air and length of below freezing will be a big issue
and this is both a threat to life and infrastructure.

Make sure to follow all precautions to keep warm and safe.

- make sure to dress in layers and cover any exposed skin
  especially Monday morning. If school is still open and your
  child waits for a bus, Monday morning will be quite brutal with
  the wind chill in the single digits to lower teens across much
  of the area. This can quickly lead to frost bite over any
  exposed skin.
- check on loved ones, friends, and neighbors
- make sure pets are inside or at least have a place they can get
  to to stay warm, well fed, and have access to water.
- Pipes will be a concern and should be protect.
- Overnight run a very thin spaghetti like stream of water. Do
  this for both the cold and hot water in separate sinks. Remember
  a very thin stream. If you turn the water on fully and let it
  run along with numerous other people doing the same thing that
  could cause problems for municipal waters systems as the water
  pressure dangerously drops.
- if using a portable heater.
-- make sure it is approved for indoor use
-- keep 3 ft from combustibles
-- place on level surfaces only
-- keep a fire extinguisher near fireplaces

Finally begin to slowly warm up during the day Tuesday but the
next few morning will continue to be cold and well below normal
as we look to be in a rather cold pattern to likely end out the
month and possibly head into the February. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 344 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

KMCB/KBTR/KHUM reporting MVFR ceilings at forecast issuance, with
remaining terminals at VFR. Those at VFR are expected to return to
MVFR during the evening. Threat for SHRA increases by mid-morning
Saturday with occasional IFR conditions possible. Will mention
potential for TSRA during the late afternoon hours at most
terminals, with IFR conditions possible. Do not anticipate
significant improvements in ceilings/visibilities from Saturday
afternoon through most of the overnight hours. Winds will gradually
become more of an issue at KNEW as sustained winds increase to 15
knots. Potential for LLWS mentioned at KMCB during the late
afternoon Saturday, and at KMSY during the late evening. /RSW/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Stalled weak front from yesterday will be reinforced as more of a
backdoor front but will remain anchored over the coastal waters for
another 18-24 hours. by late tomorrow afternoon or early evening a
surface low will begin to slowly take shape in the northwestern Gulf
slowly drawing the front back to the north. As the surface low
deepens and moves northeast the pressure gradient will tighten and
onshore winds will increase to SCY criteria overnight Saturday night
and during the day Sunday. Once the low moves to the north and then
northeast of the area Sunday afternoon a very strong cold front will
quickly surge through the area. Winds will quickly veer around to
the northwest Sunday evening and increase to sustained around
25-30 kts with gusts approaching 40 kts. The tidal lakes will see
the wind increase first and could be flirting with Gales between
00 and 03z Monday while the rest of the coastal waters will follow
suit from northwest to southeast. With that a Gale Watch has been
issued for all of the coastal waters from 00z Monday through 15z
Monday. As high pressure builds in Monday night into Tuesday, the
northerly winds will gradually decrease, but small craft advisory
conditions will persist. /CAB/

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     afternoon for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-071-083.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 6 PM CST
     Sunday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
     575-577.

     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
     afternoon for MSZ068>071.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
     for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 6 PM CST
     Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-
     577.

     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...CAB