Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
407 FXUS64 KLIX 220721 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 221 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 215 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026 - Elevated fire weather conditions will remain in place through the work week and likely increase this weekend. The rapid spread of wild fires is not substantial through Friday given the weak wind, however the current and worsening drought conditions and abundant fuels do not alleviate the fire weather concerns. Heading into the weekend winds are expected to increase the Fire Weather headlines may be needed. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued (SPSLIX) to cover this. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026 The main concern is Fire Weather and once again that is handled in the Fire Weather portion of the discussion. Outside of that it is mainly a temperature forecast which also has its impacts on the fire weather concern. As has been discussed the last few days ridging aloft will dominate the region. The mid lvl ridge is just off to our west with the ridge axis stretching north from the TX Big Bend region through the Upper MS Valley. This ridge will slowly work east over the next few days and by the middle of the weekend the ridge may be centered directly over the Lower MS Valley. This does not bode well for any rain potential. At the sfc high pressure is also expected to remain in control and remain centered off to our NNE. By this weekend the center of the broad sfc high will drop down towards the DELMARVA region while a broad area of low pressure will develop over the Bahamas. This could become a little of a problem from a fire weather concern as it will help to tighten the pressure gradient and thus we will see winds start to pick back up, especially along the coasts and over the coastal waters but even inland where efficient mixing could allow for winds to gust to 15-20 mph and that would not be a great thing for our worsening fire weather conditions. The other issue is it could send a weak backdoor cold front into the area with LL temps dropping a touch but the bigger concern is that it would send us recycled continental dry air dropping the dewpoints even further this weekend. NBM continues to trend a little cooler with the afternoon highs and given how bad it was earlier this week decided to continue to use a blend of the MOS values and the NBM to get a slightly better grasp on the afternoon highs. In addition used a blend of the NBM and NBM25 for dewpoints during the afternoon today and tomorrow and then with that backdoor cold front expected Saturday used straight NBM25 for dewpoints Saturday. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026 The extended period begins with a strong upper level ridge centered over the northwestern Gulf and extending northeastward through the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest is expected to begin lifting northeastward across the Rockies Sunday night. As this system advances into the central Plains Monday, increasing southwesterly flow aloft will gradually suppress the western extent of the ridge, with the ridge substantially weakened or eroded by Tuesday. Despite this evolving upper level pattern, little change in sensible weather locally through much of the period. Surface high pressure, initially centered north of the Great Lakes, will shift southeastward toward the Carolina coast this weekend. At the same time, an approaching frontal system across the central portion of the country will contribute to a tightening pressure gradient across the northern Gulf Coast. Easterly to northeasterly winds will increase Saturday, especially across coastal areas and the tidal lakes, with the stronger gradient persisting into early next week. Not wind advisory numbers but it`ll be breezy. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm Saturday, with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Slightly cooler conditions are anticipated Sunday as persistent easterly flow limits afternoon warming, particularly across the New Orleans metro and Mississippi Gulf Coast. Highs should generally range from the middle 70s near the coast to around 80 across the Florida Parishes and southwest Mississippi. Similar temperatures are expected Monday, with a modest warming trend possible Tuesday. Overnight lows will remain largely in the upper 40s to middle 50s inland and upper 50s to lower 60s near the coast. Although heights aloft will gradually fall early next week, the approaching system is not currently expected to bring a meaningful increase in rain chances. Deep moisture return remains limited, and the associated surface front may struggle to advance southeastward toward the forecast area. Consequently, the prolonged dry pattern should continue through Tuesday, with any precipitation potential remaining primarily offshore. Confidence is relatively high in continued dry conditions, while uncertainty increases regarding the extent and timing of ridge breakdown and the resulting temperature response by Tuesday. Beyond that, global models suggest a dry front will be coming through in the latter half of the week. /MEFFER/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at all terminals through the forecast period. Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will continue to keep the region from seeing any significant moisture recovery and thus we will maintain mostly clear skies, with no significant ceiling or visibility restrictions anticipated. Surface winds will generally remain light. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Winds continue to relax as high pressure dominates the region. Persistent light to moderate easterly flow will remain in place through the end of the week as the surface high remains centered to the NNE. Seas will remain elevated as an easterly swell develops. The pressure gradient will tighten back up this weekend with headlines likely over the portions of the open waters. /CAB/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Fire weather remains a concern through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The pattern really does not offer much help with dry northerly flow aloft and high pressure at the sfc keeping meaningful rainfall out of the forecast. Afternoon RH values will generally fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s through Friday, with the lowest values across southwest MS and the adjacent Florida parishes of southeast LA. Luckily 20ft winds will remain mostly below 10 mph through Friday, which will limit wind-driven spread. That said, the fuels are dry enough that we can still have problems without strong winds. The fuel indicators continue to support this concern. The October 21 ERC-based fire danger map now depicts "High" Fire Danger Class across all areas east of the MS river and north of I-10. Recent KBDI values continue to be in the 600-700 range across many inland locations, with some higher readings approaching or exceeding 750. These indicators describe different parts of the fuel and moisture picture, but both point to conditions that warrant continued attention. The Drought Monitor continues to depict D0 to D2 conditions across portions of the area, with the more substantial drought across southwest MS and the northern Florida Parishes. However, the Drought Monitor will receive an update later today and there is a high likelihood of seeing these drought values climbing and expanding with the update. Overnight RH recovery will provide some temporary improvement in fine fuel moisture, but will do little to reverse the accumulated dryness without rainfall. Fire weather risk potential will likely increase this weekend as we keep a close eye on winds. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten this weekend. Easterly winds will increase, especially across coastal area and the immediate Northshore. However, the strongest winds closer to the LA coast are also forecast to coincide with higher RH. This makes the overlap of the stronger winds and lowest afternoon RH the main question. Any greater mixing or less moisture recovery than currently forecast would increase the concern both from a standpoint of low RH values and stronger winds mixing down. The current forecast does not support widespread critical conditions through Friday, but the weekend will need to be watched closely for possible fire weather headlines. Numerous local burn bans remain in place across LA and MS. The Fire Danger Statement highlights the near-term concern, and outdoor burning should be avoided. Even where winds remain light, an escaped fire can still spread through the dry vegetation. /CAB/ && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...CAB MARINE...CAB FIRE WEATHER...CAB