Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
300 FXUS64 KLIX 051841 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 141 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 111 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 - A slight risk for severe weather exists on Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning over southwest Mississippi where a few storms could become strong to severe and capable of damaging winds, hail up to 1", and a tornado cannot be ruled out. - A marginal risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall exists across southern Mississippi and the Florida Parishes on Thursday in association with a stalling cold front. Damaging winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall leading to street flooding are the primary concerns with any strong to severe storms that develop along the front. - Additional rounds of rain, including the potential for more strong to severe storms, on Friday, Saturday, and likely concluding on Sunday. Uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and severity of any storms that develop along the Gulf coast during this time period. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 We continue the rebound in temperatures after an unseasonably strong front over the weekend. Onshore flow on the western flank of a well- established Bermuda high is providing ample moisture back to the area and morning temperatures won`t be feeling so crisp as we move into the rest of the week. Dew point temperatures are already into the 60s with exception to SW MS, but deep moisture with dew points into the low 70s is expected to arrive by Wednesday. This will provide ample thermodynamic fuel for shower and storm activity to flare up as daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere and lift from an encroaching weak shortwave trough embedded in SW upper- level flow enhances support of vertical growth of updrafts Wednesday afternoon. The key element when examining the jet dynamics necessary for severe weather over our CWA is that the core of the jet and best forcing remains displaced north of ArkLaMiss and Mid Mississippi River Valley. This will be a limiting factor in organization and growth of updrafts across much of the area, especially along and south of I-10/12. The primary question with warm sector convection that develops Wednesday afternoon into the evening is how quickly these updrafts can organize in Southwest MS and adjacent parishes. At this time, it appears most of these updrafts will struggle to realize the favorable environment for all severe weather hazards until they can mature more fully further into ArkLaMiss and Central MS. As such, the primary and more certainty with any severe weather risk would be associated with the potential for damaging winds with storms that fire along the cold front overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 A cold front will sink southward beginning early Thursday morning across northern areas and reach the I-10/12 corridor around late morning. Weakly stable air and the initial forcing of the weak shortwave departing in addition to veered winds out of the southwest will result in a reduction in the severe weather risk as this front moves into our area in the early morning hours. However, destabilization of the atmosphere via sufficient afternoon heating could reignite convection along the frontal boundary near the I-10/12 corridor on Thursday around midday. This would likely be a marginal damaging wind and hail threat with almost no tornado threat with this per the unidirectional wind profiles associated with this boundary. Where the forecast begins to diverge among the global and long-range CAM guidance is the timing and placement of the frontal boundary as it stalls late Thursday into Friday and convective systems initiating within the prevailing southwesterly STJ flow along this frontal boundary. Primary discrepancies right now are with regards to return flow that begins as the decaying front lifts back to the north on Friday and associated shortwave activity within the STJ initiates new convection. Some guidance indicates strong, deeper convection could develop again on Friday and increase the risk for excessive rainfall and severe weather. Meanwhile, other guidance keeps convection weaker on Friday and the main shortwave within the flow on Saturday provides a more substantial round of rainfall and severe weather potential. This will be something to watch over the coming days. Beyond Saturday, rain chances will linger into Sunday, but things will gradually dry out as we head into next week with largely seasonable temperatures expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 VFR prevailing across areas along and east of the I-55 corridor with MVFR CIGs beginning to move in from the west. Southerly winds will be gusting upwards of 20 knots during the daytime before calming down tonight. MVFR to higher IFR CIGs will be prevailing at most terminals especially west of I-55 into Wednesday morning. Isolated SH/TS will also gradually develop into the afternoon hours mainly north of the I-10/12 corridor which may prompt additional TAF lines at BTR, HDC, and MCB in the future updates. Some breaking up cloud deck will occur through the day with daytime mixing, but expect MVFR to IFR conditions to be more prevailing as the cold front approaches on early Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Southerly winds will gradually increase to 10 to 15 knots today on the western flank of the Bermuda high and this will continue into Wednesday. A weak front will sink southward into the waters and stall over the region on Thursday leading to variable winds of 5 to 15 knots. By Friday, the weak front will dissipate and southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will return. Storm coverage over the marine waters will increase beginning midday Thursday with additional rounds of showers and storms likely Friday through Sunday. Some of these storms could be strong to severe and capable of gale-force winds, small hail, and waterspouts. Winds and seas around these storms will be locally higher than what the forecast reflects. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJS LONG TERM....TJS AVIATION...TJS MARINE...TJS