608
FXUS64 KLIX 291046
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
546 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- Minimal rain chances today with increasing storms Sunday
  onward.

- Main threat from any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts,
  frequent lightning and periods of heavy rain. Waterspouts and/or
  weak tornadoes will be possible as well after today.

- Heat index values may still approach advisory criteria before
  thunderstorms develop each afternoon next week.

- Tropics will begin to be watched for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The very weak sfc low to our east will try to organize later today
into Sunday. This action will do two things, one...it will bring
drier dew pts down today due to the northerly flow on its west
side. Second...the low will begin to slowly move west late today
which will bring higher moisture content and storms back to the
area as the eastern portion of the broad circulation reaches the
area Sunday. This will be noticeable as dew pts move from the low
to upper 60s today into the 70s by early Sunday. This will set up
an environment for heavy rainfall producing storms, waterspouts
and strong downbursts. Downbursts and damaging wind speeds with
these storms should be mainly located nearest the retreating dry
air mass. Storm motion will be toward land as well starting Sunday
which could help bring a weak waterspout onshore. A weak tornado
developing inland wouldn`t be ruled out either. The upper level
flow is what we will be looking at to see if this thing will be
able to gain any real strength since all other variables are in
its wheelhouse. The large high out west and the Bermuda high to
the east will both be responsible for developing an upper low from
the current upper trough that is currently moving through the
eastern half of the country. The Bermuda high will remain in place
causing the trough to slow and stall later today into Sunday. The
SW CONUS high will begin to ridge to the east and this will begin
to sharpen the trough quite a bit, eventually cutting off an
upper low from the southern portion of the trough by Sunday. The
upper low will move west along with the weak sfc low and depending
on where the sfc low is relative to the upper low, will determine
if the sfc low can strengthen which at this time looks to be too
close to the upper low causing a lot of shear over the system. But
there is some possible pulsing regardless as the weak low moves
into SE LA or along the coast. This low will eventually move WNW
and we will be back to daily hit and miss storms as moisture
profiles will have recovered with help from the east side of the
low. Eventhough the hurricane center has this area with a 10%
chance of being a cyclone, it will be a tough go for this to
deepen that fast or to the extent it becomes a tropical cyclone
problem. But the rainfall and strong storms associated with it
could still cause issues for those impacted. Although the one
nearest our area is not as worrisome for becoming a tropical
cyclone, there is one that needs to be monitored over the coming
days. The hurricane center is not showing this yet. But the open
wave around 28N 68.5W will continue moving west while the remnants
of Dolly will be moving into the Bahamas around the same time.
The remnants of Dolly and this open wave begin to combine as they
move toward the FL east coast Tuesday. This area will need to be
watched since the next destination could become the gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

How big a change a few days can make. What looked like a
much drier and hotter setup would be building in for the second half
of the work week and into next weekend has been trending more
towards the possibility of a much higher rain chances and even the
maybe the concerns of a prolonged heavy rain setup. This is a big
chance from just two days ago but as was mentioned in the previous
forecast discussion the track and location of the building mid lvl
ridge may be just displaced enough to put the area in a far more
favorable location for rain now. Overall the medium range guidance
seem to agree for the most part with this increasing rain potential
and has strong support from the ensembles. This is still 5 days or
more out and a pretty large change from what models were suggesting
48-60 hours ago so plan to stick with the latest NBM which is
trending towards a wetter scenario.

As we begin to move into the second half of the work week the center
of our large ridge will be moving through the mid MS Valley and
down to the east-southeast over the southern Appalachians and
towards the Atlantic coast while still stretching back through the
mid MS Valley and possibly even back southwest towards northwestern
Mexico. This places the Lower MS Valley and northern Gulf coast in a
little of a weakness or possibly straight southeasterly to east-
southeasterly flow as the area remains on the periphery of the
ridge. If the models are correct this allows very deep moisture to
continue to pump into the region. This is about 5-8 days away so
don`t want to get too much into the details but guidance is
suggesting PWs 2-2.5" for multiple days.

In addition this mid lvl setup opens up an the area tropical waves
to move into the Gulf and then towards the western and northwestern
Gulf. This will need to be watched closely as this could allow, and
lets make it clear this is a very very loose could, for some weak
tropical organization/. That said whether anything develops or not
this setup suggest the we may be looking at the threat of prolonged
heavy rain over the northwestern half of the Gulf coast late next
week.

Like previous forecaster mentioned, the key in all of this is going
to be the placement of the ridge. Given the amount of change in the
last few days we could continue to see things change considerably
leading the the location of any heavy rain being displaced
significantly. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The highest chances of TSRA will again be over the Miss gulf
coast and this is where prob groups will time that activity.
Otherwise VFR should be the rule.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Surface high pressure over the Gulf will maintain winds around 5 to
10 knots varying between southerly and westerly through today. Then
winds switch to generally southerly to easterly but maintain the
same 5-10 kt magnitude starting Sunday into the new week. Scattered
thunderstorms will remain possible every day with winds and waves
higher in and near this activity.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE