029
FXUS64 KLIX 162328
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
628 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

An H5 trough remains over the region with mostly southwesterly
upper flow across the region as a ridge sits over the Florida
Peninsula. Most of the region outside of the local waters is
currently seeing a bit of a break in terms of convection, however,
looking upstream there is a cluster of showers and storms over
south central Louisiana that is moving generally toward our
region. Most of the area have been worked over from an instability
standpoint, but through the afternoon if some recovery west of
I-55 takes place, there could be another round of convection.
With the coverage of convection today, temperatures have been a
challenge. We had to lower max temps this afternoon based on
cloud and precip trends.

Going into tonight, most of the convection dissipates outside of
maybe offshore later tonight and early Tuesday. Where it rains
inland may see some patchy morning fog around sunrise or so, but
this will mix out pretty soon after sunrise. On Tuesday, the
overall pattern remains the same with active southwesterly flow
over our region and additional mainly diurnally driven convection
fires during the daytime. DCAPES during the afternoon are somewhat
middle of the road or marginally favorable for a strong wind gust
or two in the strongest activity, but the main weather impact
outside of convection will be the heat...although with POPs
running a bit higher and an early convective initiation time on
Tuesday, temperatures may be held own a bit, similar to today.
(Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Going into the long term not much overall changes. Expect the warm
season pattern to continue with generally a slightly higher
coverage of showers and storms out there each afternoon as the
aforementioned trough continues to reside over our region. This
will be a bit of a problem for high temps each day, but went a bit
on the lower side initially with the higher POPs early in the
period.

Going later into the long term an H5 ridge begins to build west
from the western Atlantic. This will help heights increase and
although it doesn`t eliminate all rain chances, it will suppress
the overall overage. That said, with some subsidence and drier air
aloft, we`ll need to watch the dcape values and wind potential
with any wider or more robust updraft during the afternoon.
Otherwise, with the lower coverage and higher thicknesses and
heights toward the end of the long term period, expect
temperatures to climb well into the lower to middle 90s for
afternoon highs. As for heat index values, they too climb and
climb to a level of potentially needing a heat advisory this
weekend. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

MVFR to VFR CIGs across the area adjusting to VFR for the
overnight timeframe as daytime convection dissipates. Exception
is MCB which has potential for light, patchy fog reducing VIS to
5SM in the early morning from 10Z to 13Z. Convection develops
again tomorrow late morning, handled with TEMPOs and PROBs.
/Schlotz/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Overall, benign marine conditions expected through the cycle.
Winds should generally be moderate at max with some gusts up to 15
knots or so toward the end of the week as surface high pressure
interacts with the leeside trough across the high plains.
Otherwise, diurnally driven convection typical for this time of
year can be expected with locally higher winds and seas in the
heaviest convection. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  88  72  90 /  30  70  10  70
BTR  74  89  74  92 /  20  60   0  70
ASD  74  89  74  91 /  20  70  10  70
MSY  77  90  78  92 /  30  70  10  80
GPT  76  88  77  89 /  30  70  30  70
PQL  74  89  75  89 /  40  70  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...RDF