Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
530 FXUS64 KLIX 272335 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 635 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday Night) Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Dry northwesterly flow aloft continues over the region. We`ve been watching an H5 impulse that has helped develop cloudiness over the region this morning. This deck of clouds is slowly eroding and mixing out, but the coverage has kept our temperatures from climbing much into the 80s at the noon hour outside of Houma where coverage has been more scattered in nature. There were a few showers earlier around MCB/southwest MS, however, this activity has decreased. Cannot rule out a rogue shower or two with very subtle impulses still present within the flow upstream, however, much of the short term should remain dry with the best chances being west of I55 and southwest Mississippi during the day on Thursday. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 By Friday a cold front should move southward over our region before stalling. A series of upper level shortwaves will ride down the northwesterly flow and interact with this feature, which should give us higher rain/storm chances going into the upcoming weekend. Low level moisture does increase a bit with PWATS at or above 2.0" Friday afternoon through the weekend. Because of this, WPC experimental ERO has a marginal through the weekend where the best potential hydro concerns will be in the urban areas or poor drainage locations. The antecedent conditions are on the drier side, especially north of I10/12 so it may take a bit more for hydro concerns to develop outside of the more flood vulnerable locations. As for the front, models still disagree in terms of placement beyond Saturday. GFS hangs up the front along the coast and the ECMWF drags the front all the way through the region and stalls it over the central Gulf. So, one solution is wet and one is dry. For now, we will keep POPs mid range and split the difference Sunday and Monday. Regardless, with rain/cloudiness or behind the front, temperatures will likely be a bit cooler this weekend and into early next week with most locations climbing only into the middle and upper 80s. By the end of the period the front should have finally cleared as a very strong northwest flow reestablishes over the area leading to much drier conditions and likely a skosh warmer as well by next Tuesday. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 A few SHRA near KMCB and KHUM at forecast issuance time, and will cover with VCSH for the first couple of hours of the forecast. Most should dissipate within an hour or two of sunset. Expect mainly VFR conditions overnight. Precipitation potential is a bit greater on Thursday, and will use PROB30 during the afternoon hours at all terminals. Not quite confident enough yet for a TEMPO at KMCB, but that may be needed in later forecasts. && .MARINE... Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Moderate easterly flow has developed across portions of the coastal waters. Pressure gradient will begin to decrease as high pressure moves eastward across the TN/OH River Valleys this afternoon and evening. Until then, Cautionary Headlines were needed for some of the local waters. Winds will eventually shift to a more southerly direction out ahead of another cold front due into the region by late Friday. The front is forecast to stall somewhere along the Gulf Coast or perhaps just offshore. With the front, convection may be enhanced leading to more numerous showers and thunderstorms. Outside of convection, overall conditions will be benign. That said, near showers and storms expect locally higher winds and seas. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 70 89 71 84 / 10 40 50 80 BTR 73 93 73 88 / 10 40 30 70 ASD 70 91 71 88 / 10 20 20 50 MSY 77 94 77 91 / 10 30 10 50 GPT 72 89 73 86 / 0 20 20 50 PQL 68 91 70 88 / 0 20 20 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RW MARINE...RDF