Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
487 FXUS64 KLIX 172327 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 627 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 - Rain to return to the forecast this weekend associated with a cold front moving through the area. - Marginal Risk for severe weather Saturday night for mainly north half of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Tonight through Saturday afternoon, high pressure continues, so conditions will be fairly dry overall and warm with highs in the upper 80s. Saturday night into Sunday morning, a cold front will push through the area, enhancing chances of severe weather and rainfall. PW values will be increasing throughout the day tomorrow, and approaching the 90th percentile for our area tomorrow night. There is decent instability and shear (1000 J/kg and 40kts respectively) as well as plenty of moisture available, so the parameters are favorable enough to produce the threat for severe weather. We are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for Saturday night. The main threats will be damaging winds 60+mph and the risk for tornado cannot be ruled out completely. The rough timing of this will be late Saturday night approaching the area around midnight and moving through during the overnight hours. The timing is still a bit uncertain right now, but should become clearer in later model runs. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through Thursday) Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 After the system pushes through early Sunday morning, high pressure builds over the area for the bulk of the workweek. A weak dry shortwave may move through the area Tuesday, but the models are in large disagreement about this solution. Regardless, rainfall amounts look fairly dry and limited overall for the entire workweek. Generally, highs will be in the low 80s with lows in the mid 50s for much of the week. Though it should be noted that the lows are pretty dependent on the strength of the reinforcing dry front, which is very divided in the long range models. Nevertheless, a generally dry and cooler week ahead! MSW && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR conditions in place at forecast issuance. Potential for IFR or lower conditions around sunrise, especially at KBTR/KMCB/KHDC. Won`t rule it out at other terminals, but confidence not as high elsewhere. Any lower conditions should quickly improve to VFR prior to 15z. Expect more high cloud cover on Saturday in advance of approaching cold front, but should be primarily VFR conditions during the day. Will carry PROB30 for TSRA during portions of the afternoon hours at KBTR/KMCB/KHUM/KHDC, and at KMSY during the last 6 hours of their 30 hour window. Greater threat of TSRA will be beyond 00z Sunday, and for the eastern terminals of KASD and KGPT, it could be even beyond 06z. Hope to refine timing a little better for the 06z TAF package. && .MARINE... Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 High pressure has moved east of the area, and winds are becoming southeasterly. Winds will remain southeasterly at about 10 to 15 knots ahead of a cold front that is expected to move through the coastal waters on Sunday. After the front moves through late on Sunday, winds will shift to the northwest, but choppy conditions will persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 65 85 67 78 / 0 40 80 20 BTR 67 87 68 82 / 0 50 70 20 ASD 67 84 68 83 / 0 30 70 20 MSY 72 87 72 86 / 0 30 70 20 GPT 71 83 70 84 / 0 10 70 30 PQL 67 85 69 84 / 0 10 70 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...RW MARINE...MSW