040
FXUS64 KLIX 040017
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
617 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Showers and a few thunderstorms possible Tuesday night into
  Wednesday as a cold front moves through. Severe weather threat
  remains low.

- Mostly dry and pleasant conditions return Thursday through the
  weekend, with additional cold fronts expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 1207 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A vigorous negatively tilted shortwave trough axis and an
attendant front will sweep through the forecast area tonight into
tomorrow morning. Fortunately, the best dynamic forcing, shear, and
thermodynamic support will remain displaced well to the north of
the forecast area. This will greatly limit the potential for any
strong to severe thunderstorm development tonight into tomorrow
morning. There will be ample deep layer lift over the region, so a
weak line of showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms will move
into the area from western Louisiana during the evening hours. All
indications are that the line will further weaken as it moves
toward the Baton Rouge area later this evening, mainly in response
to the parent trough axis and the best jet dynamics shifting to
the north toward northern Mississippi and western Tennessee.
Overall, rain chances will be limited with most areas only seeing
some isolated to widely scattered light rain showers from Baton
Rouge eastward.

The other concern for tonight will be the prospect of fog
developing in advance of the front. The wind field is expected to
collapse overnight with near calm winds in place by midnight.
Plenty of moisture will be around and some moisture pooling in
advance of the front could support areas of light to moderate fog
development in southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi.
However, in coastal Mississippi, fog probabilities are much higher
due to the influence of the Gulf waters and a period of more
widespread moderate to occasionally dense fog could form in the
early morning hours tomorrow. Although the probabilities for
dense fog have increased in coastal Mississippi, have opted to not
put out a dense fog advisory for now as confidence is not quite
high enough that widespread and persistent dense fog will occur.
The upcoming shift can monitor trends and issue if needed.
Temperatures will remain above average with lows in the 60s
tonight and highs climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s
tomorrow.

Wednesday night and Thursday will see a shortwave ridge axis slide
through the region. Increasing subsidence and dry air advection
into the area will allow PWATS to fall as low as 0.5 inches and
skies will turn mostly clear. Temperatures will also see a larger
diurnal range as the drier air moves in with lows dipping into the
low to mid 50s north and west of Lake Pontchartrain and the lower
60s along the coast.

Thursday night through Friday will see another fast moving and
weak shortwave trough axis slide through the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Moisture return will be limited in advance of this feature
with a fairly sharp north-south dewpoint gradient in place. For
areas north of I-10, very dry air will remain in place through the
period and rain chances will be limited to 20 percent or less.
However, south of I-10, better mid-level moisture return will
support some isolated to scattered shower activity Thursday night
into Friday and rain chances of 20 to 40 percent accurately
reflect this risk. Thunderstorm activity is not anticipated due to
limited instability as mid-level lapse rates remain very weak.
Temperatures will once again cool into the 50s north and west of
the lake and the 60s along the coast Thursday night before warming
into the upper 70s and lower 80s on Friday. As the trough and a
weak front push to the south and east Friday night, rainfall will
move offshore into the Gulf and temperatures will cool further
with readings falling into the upper 40s and lower 50s north of
I-10 and the mid to upper 50s south of I-10. These values are
closer to average for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Monday night)
Issued at 1207 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Going into the weekend the surface cold front will continue
downstream slowly at first but much quicker as an H5 trough digs
over the southeast states later on in the weekend. A fairly
progressive flow takes shape over the CWFA through the weekend,
which will point to an overall dry period post frontal. The globals
going into early next week do tend diverge in terms of the overall
synoptic pattern. High pressure at the surface will be in control.
The issues start late Sunday as the ECM ejects and upper level low
east and starts to open the feature up as it nears our region. The
GFS is much slower and unlike the ECM, the GFS actually has upper
level ridging and no QPF signal over the region. So, at this point
temperatures appear to be around seasonal averages. However,
confidence in terms of POPs early next week is low at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The main aviation concern during this TAF period will be low
ceilings and fog development overnight as winds become light to
calm and plenty of low-level moisture remains in place. VFR
conditions will prevail initially at most terminals, but ceilings
should gradually deteriorate to MVFR and IFR overnight, with the
earliest restrictions expected at MCB, ASD, and GPT around 04-05z.
The greatest concern remains at GPT where LIFR conditions are
expected as early as 05z, with visibilities dropping to 1/4SM in
dense fog by 07z. Elsewhere, IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities
will be possible through Wednesday morning, with some improvement
by mid to late morning as daytime mixing increases and a cold
front begins moving through the area. A few showers will also be
possible overnight across the northern terminals and Wednesday
afternoon farther east, but coverage should remain rather limited.
Winds will gradually shift to the west/northwest behind the front
on Wednesday, with most terminals improving to VFR by the
afternoon, although some MVFR ceilings could linger at ASD and
GPT.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Light southerly and southwesterly winds of 10 knots or less will be
in place today and tomorrow as a weak front slips through the
region. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
night into Wednesday as the front moves through the waters. Winds
will then be fairly light and variable at 5 knots or less on
Thursday as a weak area of high pressure moves through the waters.
Another weak cold front will move through Friday, followed by a much
stronger front on Saturday that will increase northerly winds back
to near small craft advisory range.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...PG