957
FXUS64 KLIX 260503
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1203 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1138 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Elevated fire danger will continue through mid-week. The ongoing
  drought conditions and dry fuels combined with low humidity and
  light to moderate winds will lead to potential for some fire
  spread. Residents should obey all burn bans in place and
  exercise extreme caution with any open flames outdoors even in
  areas that do not currently have burn bans in place.

- Strong winds will continue to result in hazardous conditions for
  small craft across most coastal waters of southeast Louisiana
  and Mississippi. Additional periods of strong winds could lead
  to the extention of small craft advisories later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

October has remained true to its climate form and continues to be
very dry so far. With only 5 more days left, there does not look
to be much of a case to get any meaningful rainfall to cause this
October to move to the wet side of climo. Things will change as
we move into the winter months though. The short term still
remains dry through at least Thursday. The biggest issue with the
dry wx is fire concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Longer term forecast continues to look pretty quiet as stubborn high
pressure dominates the southeastern CONUS. However, by the start of
the long term the controlling ridge will have moved slowly to the
east leaving trailing shortwave with return flow to undercut the
upper ridging by the weekend. Generally speaking though, air mass
should remain pretty dry through the period with some 30-40% PoPs
Saturday into Sunday. Any associated rain looks to be under a
quarter inch and likely less than a tenth. So, we will continue
monitoring trends regarding the potential for a frontal passage in
early November and rain, but the bottom line
- it doesn`t look like we`ll have any meaningful rainfall for at
least the next week.

Diurnal ranges will continue to be fairly large with lows in the 50s
and lower 60s area-wide and highs in the low to mid 80s most
places.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR through this cycle for most terminals. Cloud cover may be just
thick enough to keep IFR fog from forming at main terminals, but
there could be a few sites that drop into IFR levels temporarily.
This will be quickly remedied shortly after sunrise today and
again Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A strong surface high will remain centered over the Mid-Atlantic
region today. At the same time, a broad low pressure system will
persist over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This will maintain a
tighter pressure gradient across the northern Gulf with easterly
winds remaining elevated across most of the coastal waters. A Small
Craft Advisory continues for all waters except for lakes
Pontchartrain, Maurepas, and Salvador through Monday morning as
elevated easterly winds of around 20 knots persist. These headlines
will likely remain up through much of this week as strong easterly
winds of 20 to 25 knots and seas of 5 to 8 feet continue.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534>536-
     541-543-557.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ551-553-554-
     570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ534>536-541-
     543-557.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ553-554-570-
     572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE