444
FXUS64 KLIX 300505
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1205 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1051 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day
  through the work week as an active weather pattern sets in
  across the local area.

- While the overall severe weather threat will be low, one or two
  storms could become strong to severe each day, producing strong
  to damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and periods of heavy
  rain. Waterspouts and/or brief/weak tornadoes will be possible,
  mainly today and Monday.

- The heat threat will generally be low, but heat index values in
  some areas could still approach advisory criteria before showers
  and thunderstorms develop each afternoon. Those with outdoor
  plans/work should continue to exercise caution from late morning
  through the afternoon.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

No big changes from the ongoing fcast as wet periods look to be
the future of this coming week. The rain and storms that will move
into the area won`t be continuous but instead in waves. This will
be from a deep fetch of tropical moisture moving in with PW values
2.2+" which will drop back into the upper 1.8 to 2.0 range in
between. The current sfc low in the north central gulf is
interacting with the base of an upper long wave trough which can
be seen very well in WV imagery this morning. It is currently
moving west and this will be the first of 2+" PWs that we see as
the area gets into the east side of the sfc low. The low is
expected to remain weak while interacting with the upper trough
and eventual upper low cutting off from the trough base today.
But, as the sfc low moves west just offshore the Louisiana coast,
the upper level winds weaken and conditions become slightly more
favorable as move into Monday and Tuesday. The next surge looks to
visit late Tue into Wed which would be the mess seen off the east
coast of Florida this morning. The area even farther out to the
east of the "mess" will be the next which should partner up with
the remnants of Dolly as it moves near the east coast of Florida
Wed. Regardless of the several disturbances that move into the
gulf over the coming days, conditions are not primed for rapid
development of tropical activity, but fcasts can and do change. At
the moment, we definitely see deep slugs of tropical moisture
making its way into our area through mid week, but unless shear
values drop aloft, the trend will remain for low probs of tropical
development.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Overall the medium range models and ensembles are still
in agreement with an active pattern continuing through next weekend.
All guidance suggest the mid lvl ridge builds east with the center
of it working all the way into the the Tobacco Road region before
the stalls.  The ridge will be setup in a way that puts the local
area and the northwestern Gulf on the southwestern periphery of the
ridge which will allow for multiple tropical waves/disturbances to
impact the region. NBM for the most part matches what the medium
range guidance is suggesting however there are still subtle timing
and placement issues and because of that we will not make any major
deviations from the latest NBM.

By Wednesday night the ridge will be firmly situated to the north
and northeast allowing for southeasterly flow over the northwestern
Gulf coast. Easterly waves will work underneath the ridge as they
move into the Gulf and then slide towards the northwest. Again there
are some timing discrepancies by the next tropical after our
Sunday/Monday system could be as early as overnight Tuesday or as
late as early Thursday. The low lvl feature could approach earlier
but looking at the moisture field and PWs it appears that would try
to surge into the area late Wednesday and overnight.

The next feature to focus on appears to be the remnants of Dolly.
Dolly is currently just east of the Lesser Antilles and should
impact Puerto Rico in the next 24 hours with hopefully some much
needed rainfall. Then it will continue to move west-northwest into
the Gulf late in the work week and with the ridge still in place
with southeast flow aloft those remnants could approach the region
late Friday and into Saturday.

Both of these features much like the current one in the Gulf don`t
look to promising from a tropical development stand point but all
look to bring rain and possibly heavy rain at times. Moisture will
be abundant and the rain will be very efficient and if things line
up in an unwanted way we could see the potential for multiple heavy
rain events. We will need to closely monitor these waves over the
next few days. Now as mentioned earlier this will be highly dictated
by placement of the ridge, track of the any of these waves, and
timing and it would not be a surprising to see quite the dichotomy
across the region where the southwestern portions of the CWA see
multiple inches of rain and possibly on multiple days where the
northern and northeastern portions of the CWA see less than an inch
overall with highs possibly in mid 90s. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

RA, TSRA and CIGS will begin to increase today over
most of the area. The lowest levels for cigs will be in MVFR range
intermittently trading places with VFR. RA and TSRA will be timed in
prob groups through the day into the evening hours when numbers will
decay.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A weak surface low will move west across the north central gulf
today and tonight shifting light northerly winds to light southerly
which will remain through the work week. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will remain possible each day with winds and waves
higher in and near this activity.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE