080
FXUS64 KLIX 302353
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
653 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 639 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase today
  especially in south Mississippi. While most storms are generally
  not forecasted to be severe, the strongest of these storms could
  have strong to damaging winds. In addition, storms could have
  heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding especially in
  areas that receive repeated rounds of storms.

- Dangerous heat will remain the primary concern today. Peak heat
  index values up to 110 degrees remain possible, with limited
  overnight relief. Heat continues to back down Friday with heat
  index numbers lower than heat advisory criteria through the
  weekend

- Additional afternoon/evening scattered rain chances increase
  through the upcoming weekend as a front drifts into the area
  from the north. Repeated thunderstorms may produce locally heavy
  rainfall and localized flash flooding, especially where storms
  train. Additionally, a few isolated strong storms will be
  possible with gusty winds in excess of 40-50mph the main risk.



&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Biggest short term concern is this afternoon with some potential
for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, along with heavy
rainfall. The best chances of this will be south Mississippi and
bordering . Northwest flow along with ample amounts of instability
(MLCAPE ~1500-2000 J/kg, higher offshore) and moisture (PW ~2 in)
will at least support isolated strong to potentially severe
storms, particularly damaging winds. However, shear is pretty poor
(<15 kt) so storms basically would bloom over the frontal
boundary passing through the area and that`s about it. Heavy
rainfall could also be a concern just because of how efficient
these storms will be, with localized flooding for areas that
receive repeated rounds. These storms should be on the decrease
past sunset. Tomorrow looks similar in setup as well. But just
want to emphasize that the overall threat from this is fairly low
and limited in area. Most of the southeast Louisiana and south
Mississippi will still continue to be hot with little to no rain.

Regarding the heat, heat indices are already very borderline
tomorrow and the past few days we have struggled a bit more than
what NBM guidance had be suggesting for max temp and heat index
values. With additional cloud cover from the higher shower/storms
chances tomorrow decided against issuing a heat advisory. However
it will still be hot so continue to practice heat safety as the
heat stress from multiple days of hot weather will continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Biggest thing to watch in the upper pattern is the upper level
trough that will be digging down. Still a little uncertainty on
how far it goes but it does look to at least reach the Tennessee
Valley. This along with the weak frontal boundary will help keep
up the chances of showers and storms especially for the eastern
half of the CWA (roughly east of I-55) through the weekend and
the first half of next week. The storms starting Monday will be
more of the typical summertime seabreeze type storms though.
Thanks to the storms and additional cloud cover, that should help
dampen down the heat ever so slightly into the low 90s. However
the upper level trough will trek on eastward and we`ll return to
the upper level ridging pattern which means high temperatures
closer to the mid to upper 90s by the work week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Prevailing VFR at all terminals currently. Showers and storms
remain in NW areas, leading to continued PROB30s at KMCB along
with some wind gusts. Once convection dies off later this evening,
VFR conditions are expected overnight and for most of Friday. On
Friday, the afternoon hours may see convection once again but very
isolated. Added PROB30s in for GPT and MCB.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Surface high pressure will hold over the Gulf the next few days
but a weak frontal boundary will sag southward into the coastal
waters into the Gulf this weekend. Winds will generally be
westerly to southwesterly with some winds could be up to around 15
knots this afternoon into the early morning hours tomorrow. Winds
do look to increase to 15 to 20 knots this weekend into early
next week. With the front stalling into the Gulf, the chances of
showers and storms will increase and will cause higher winds and
waves in areas impacted by storms.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...BL