Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
463 FXUS64 KLIX 032325 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 625 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 A vigorous upper level trough and attendant surface frontal boundary is currently moving through the region this afternoon. Although moisture is extremely limited per the 12z sounding, the strength of the trough will provide enough forcing to induce some widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon into early this evening over the northwest third of the forecast area. Given the dry air aloft, these weak convective cells could still produce some locally gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph. By late this evening, the trough axis and front will be shifting offshore and a surge of very dry and very stable air will feed into the region from the north. This dry and stable airmass will then persist over the Gulf South through the end of the short term period. The end result will be mostly clear skies, low humidity, and a fairly large diurnal range. Highs will easily warm into the low to mid 90s on Thursday and Friday as the dry airmass heats up beneath strong solar insolation, but the clear skies at night will allow overnight lows to drop into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Overall, a fairly pleasant couple of days are anticipated for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 The pattern will start to turn more zonal in the upper levels over the weekend as the trough that has been the dominant feature across the eastern third of the CONUS for the past two weeks lifts to the north and east. In the low levels, the broad surface high centered over the region will also begin to shift to the east. The combination of these factors will support increased onshore flow beginning and Saturday and continuing into Sunday. Moisture will gradually increase over the area with PWATS rising from between the 10th and 25th percentiles Saturday morning to around the median values for early September by Sunday morning. As daytime highs climb into the lower 90s and the convective temperature is achieved, a few showers and thunderstorms will fire up both Saturday and Sunday afternoon. However, the lack of any strong forcing mechanisms aloft will keep any activity largely confined to the seabreeze boundary. As a result, the highest PoP both days is for areas near the coast. On Monday and Tuesday, the upper level remnant energy and moisture from Hurricane Lorena in the eastern Pacific will move into the area from the west. This system will merge with a northern stream trough axis dropping to the southeast to form a broad trough across the Gulf South by Monday night and Tuesday. This increase in deeper tropical moisture will push PWATS to between the 75th and 90th percentile for early September or closer to 2 inches, and a broad region of increasing omega and positive vorticity advection will support the development of showers and thunderstorms for both Monday and Tuesday. PoP values are currently held in the chance range of 30 to 50 percent, but these values are likely to increase as confidence in the merging of these upper level features grows over the coming days. The main takeaway is to expect a return to a wetter pattern to start the workweek next week. The rainfall and increased cloud cover will also help to keep temperatures cooler, and have opted to cool temperatures more toward the 25th percentile of the NBM spread. This keeps highs a few degrees cooler than average in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Terminals VFR at forecast issuance time. Only convection remaining is an isolated TSRA over Wilkinson County, MS, which is well away from any of the forecast terminals. Quite a bit of cirrus across the area, which should probably preclude any significant fog. Forecast soundings would indicate the potential for SCT-BKN cumulus during the late morning and afternoon hours, but cloud bases are likely to be FL040 or higher. Threat of TSRA is very small during the daytime hours tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 A reinforcing dry frontal passage will occur over the waters this afternoon and a surface high will settle over the waters tonight into tomorrow. Winds will be very light and variable through Saturday and seas will run around 1 foot. Heading into next week, another low pressure system will bring increased thunderstorm chances back to the waters and an increased pressure gradient will push winds back into the 10 to 15 knot range. Seas will respond to these stronger winds early next and increase into the 2 to 3 feet range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 91 69 93 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 71 92 72 94 / 20 0 0 0 ASD 70 91 71 92 / 10 10 0 0 MSY 74 90 75 92 / 0 10 0 0 GPT 71 88 73 89 / 0 10 0 0 PQL 68 89 71 90 / 0 10 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...RW MARINE...PG