942
FXUS64 KLIX 081237
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
737 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New MORNING UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 726 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- A more pronounced drying trend will begin today, with less
  shower and thunderstorm activity for much of the week.

- Further slow easing of tide levels is expected over the next few
  days.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...
Issued at 726 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Performed a brief short-term gridded update early this morning to
bring in the latest guidance/thoughts mainly focused on today.
Latest GOES-16 satellite imagery illustrates a thin corridor of
mid to upper-level clouds streaming in from the NW Gulf into the
SE US, along progressive SW flow aloft. With broad/weak ridging in
place we`re not seeing entirely alot of dynamic lift at play
(like we saw a few days ago with the sfc trough) however, still
see a rather moist upper PBL/lower tropospheric layer between the
LCL to 800mb along with surface warming to get a Cu field
developing today, and where the sfc heats up enough, could pop out
a few isolated showers or thunderstorm (as recent HRRR trends
depict). Took a stab at this by introducing widespread 15% for the
Atchafalaya Basin to the Florida Parishes/SW MS but want to
stress, coverage will be limited. Just not extremely confident on
mid/upper-level clouds suppressing or keeping the sfc cool enough
but there could be some influence to it. Highs were not touched,
where the deterministic is falling around the 50th percentile
which verified well yesterday. But, the spread in ensembles is
very small so should not see many big variations in fcst highs.
Drying out later tonight. Will dive deeper with the full forecast
package later this morning. KLG

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Some measurements of rainfall over the last several weeks have
been in feet with no one coming out of this period with no rain.
We will now move into a relatively dry period with only isolated
to scattered activity on any given day through this week. The
trade off is heat. As the clouds and rain leave, the heat begins
to take over again and this time it will have plenty of moisture
to evaporate into the boundary layer making it feel somewhat
uncomfortable during the hottest part of the day. I use the word
uncomfortable and not miserable because the one thing that will
help is the column will be ventilated each day as there will be no
strong cap available to keep mixing down, we are just getting
some drier air moving in to lower the rain chances. The weak cap
and mixing during the hottest part of the day will help keep high
heat index values relatively low in the mid to upper 90s each day
through Thursday, but this will change once a stronger cap moves
in and mixing values weaken possibly by the end of the work week,
but this is looking short lived.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Upper ridging will be centered near the Sabine River Thursday
night, with a strong shortwave trough moving into the western
Great Lakes. At the surface, the Bermuda high will extend across
much of the Gulf, while a frontal boundary extends from Ohio to
west Texas.

By Sunday, the upper ridge axis will retreat westward to near El
Paso, although it will still exert influence across the local area.
The frontal system to the north looks like it will never reach our
area. That shouldn`t be a surprise at this point, as we`re reaching
the time of year where frontal passages become uncommon for a few
months.

Moisture levels by the time we get to Thursday night and Friday will
be somewhere around the 50th to 75th percentile, around 1.6 inches.
Low level southerly flow won`t really plug in until late Saturday or
Sunday. Sunday values will exceed 2 inches by late afternoon, and be
near the daily max across some portions of the area. With no strong
synoptic features to focus rainfall, the daily diurnal cycle will
drive convection, beginning to fire around midday, generally along
lake and sea breeze boundaries, propagating on outflows. At present,
NBM PoPs appear to be on the high side, by perhaps 10 to 20 percent
for at least Friday and Saturday (currently showing 40-60 percent).

Little day to day change in temperatures with highs generally in the
lower 90s and lows in the 70s. That`s a few degrees above normal,
but not terribly unusual in June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 459 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A mix of MVFR and VFR cigs will remain through sunrise before
becoming all VFR for the day. Some MVFR cigs could be found along
the immediate coast tonight but most terminals will be VFR through
tonight as well. Chances of RA or TSRA over any one terminal is
not high enough to show in this taf cycle finally so the only
thing that would cause anything lower than VFR will be cigs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

For the remainder of this week, winds should remain ESE to SE at
10 to 15 knots. The number of showers and storms around will
decrease quite a bit today and hold that pattern through the
remainder of the week as well. Winds and seas will be higher in
and near any thunderstorm activity that does occur.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KLG
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE