535
FXUS64 KLIX 301054
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
554 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 552 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Wind speeds will remain in the 15 to 20 knot range mainly over
  open gulf waters keeping small craft headlines to be posted.

- Minor coastal flooding is likely along sections of the
  Mississippi and Louisiana gulf coasts during high tide times
  each day through the weekend. A coastal flood advisory is in
  effect for locations expected to get minor coastal flooding
  through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Ridging from the NE will be stubborn to move but eventually will
do so. This may not be until after daylight Saturday as moiture
begins to stream in at the sfc. The main thing the ridging will do
is keep sh/ts from developing or moving into much of the CWA until
the ridge backs off enough to allow this, which looks to be closer
to late morning or noon Sat. Most of the activity will be hit and
miss Sat and Sun with none of it looking severe at the moment. As
this feature moves east we will dry out again for Monday. Coastal
flood advisories have been posted for areas expected to have
flooding due to king tides and easterly winds that have been
activie for days on end now. Flooding levels will be less than a
foot over normally dry areas near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Going into midweek next week the globals have come better in line
with timing and strength of the next system expected to impact our
region Tuesday night into Wednesday. The region will reside under
active southwest flow on the eastern periphery of the H5 trough
digging over the Red River Valley. At the surface stronger onshore
flow is expected to develop, which should continue to advect plenty
of warm moist air into the region. GFS, ECM, and GEM all have the
front passing through the region early Wednesday morning.
As it does, a line of convection is forecast to move through the
CWFA. Instability at this time looks to be a bit marginal. However,
jet dynamics are supportive of convection continuing as the line
marches eastward through the early morning hours. The front and
associated convection appears to be on the transient side, so hydro
concerns appear minimal, especially considering dry antecedent
conditions. However, with the strong lift, modest instability, and
increasing H85 jet/low level shear, expect a typical cool season
severe environment to evolve. Usually in this type of pattern severe
hazards such as strong wind gusts, QLCS mesovorts, and even a couple
of low topped supercells with a few tornadoes are not out of the
realm of possibility. This will continue to be monitored through the
weekend. Winds behind the system will shift northward on Wednesday
with some gradual clearing taking shape through the end of the
period.

As for temperatures expect above average on Tuesday and Tuesday
night with plenty of warm moist air spreading northward from the
Gulf. That said, the front and associated airmass behind the front,
despite the overall robust strength will be more Pacific based,
meaning temperatures will cool, but mostly cool to more average or
slightly below with little Canadian/Arctic influence Wednesday and
Thursday. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR through this cycle. Cigs are expected to start moving inland
today but will remain at VFR levels. Some RA and TSRA over the
gulf but should not impact any terminals within this taf cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A prevailing easterly wind will remain in place across the waters
through the upcoming weekend and into early next week as a broad
surface high pressure system sits to the north of the area. Winds
will generally remain in the 10 to 15 knot range in the lakes,
sounds, and bays through the weekend and into early next. However,
the open Gulf waters will see slightly higher winds of 15 to 20
knots over this period, resulting in choppier seas of 3 to 6 feet.
Smaller craft should exercise caution if venturing out into the open
Gulf waters. This persistent east wind will also lead to some minor
coastal flooding less than one foot above ground level for east
facing shores starting through the weekend. There will be some
passing showers and a few thunderstorms for Saturday and Sunday as a
weak disturbance aloft passes through, but no significant impacts to
maritime activities are expected from the weak thunderstorms that do
develop.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ070-
     076-078-091.

GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MSZ086-
     087.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE