Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
196 FXUS64 KLIX 022314 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 514 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 510 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 Performed a brief/small gridded forecast update this evening. Very little needed as the forecast remains on track well with obs. Took a peak at overnight lows. For now, holding on the deterministic NBM as far as guidance goes, but will consider bumping down to the 50th later tonight. Deterministic is right between the 50th to 75th, just depends on when/how long winds can relax/decouple to promote maximized radiational cooling. Regardless, did hit the drainage basins per usual that are more protected from winds and where coldest air settles, bringing a few 37-39F readings from KMCB to KASD and near KPQL. Other than that, quiet and it`ll be staying that way for a while into the upcoming week. Will dive deeper into the full forecast package later tonight. KLG && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday Night) Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 In the wake of last night`s cold front, a reinforcing cooler and drier air mass has already begun building into the local area. It will settle over the area tonight and remain roughly in place through Monday night. The combination of the cooler air mass, low dewpoints and clear skies will lead to efficient radiative cooling. Temperatures should drop quickly after sunset, and are forecast to bottom out in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and in the mid to upper 40s south tonight. Coldest areas will be across SW MS, as well as the Pearl and Pascagoula river drainage areas. Ample sunshine tomorrow will allow temperatures to rebound to near 70 degrees before falling into the 40s and lower 50s again tomorrow night. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 Weather will remain fairly benign through the end of the work week as the high gradually shifts away from the area. A warming trend will begin during the day Tuesday as the high starts its retreat. Expect afternoon temperatures to rise from the low to mid 70s on Tuesday to around 80 by Thursday and into the lower 80s on Friday. Morning lows will see similar trends, warming from the mid 40s to mid 50s Tuesday night to near 60 by Thursday night for southern areas and by Friday night for northern areas. Current forecast does not mention any substantial rain chances through at least Friday. However, there is at least some potential for rain chances to be introduced during the late Friday into Saturday timeframe. There continues to be disagreement among the different model and ensemble guidance concerning the degree of moisture return late in the week as well as how far south an initial cold front will push. The operational GFS is the most aggressive of the guidance, indicating precipitable water rebounding to around 1.75" Friday afternoon with the initial front pushing all the way to the coast. As a result, it is also indicating scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along this front. Meanwhile, most other guidance (and the official forecast) indicate this initial front will remain well north of the local area which will keep rain chances low until the next system moves through sometime Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 510 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecast cycle. Winds will remain light tonight, but staying breezy for north-facing shoreline TAF sites like KNEW, where winds will remain persistent at around 10-12kts bearing 360-020. Clear and dry conditions through Monday with winds around 06-08kts from 17Z-01Z. KLG && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 Moderate northerly winds will develop across the coastal waters tonight as high pressure builds into the area accompanied by cold air advection. Exercise caution headlines will be extended across all coastal waters through tonight. Winds should begin easing Monday morning as the high becomes more settled over the area. Once winds settle, generally benign conditions are forecast through the remainder of the week. Winds will gradually shift to the east and then southeast by the end of the work week as the high moves away from the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 38 68 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 41 70 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 39 71 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 51 70 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 42 70 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 38 69 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM....DM AVIATION...KLG MARINE...DM