Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
496 FXUS64 KLIX 241031 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 531 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 526 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 - Impactful heat conditions are likely to return this weekend and persist well into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Upper ridging axis extended the breadth of Texas from near El Paso to Texarkana. Troughing was over New England and along the Pacific Coast. The remnants of Bertha were over south Texas and no longer an issue for the local area. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf to the south of Pensacola, while a stationary front was over northern Mississippi. May be one or two small showers moving northward, but for the most part, skies were partly cloudy with temperatures upper 70s to mid 80s at midnight. Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep the area dry through the weekend into early next week. Can`t rule out an isolated storm or two during the heat of the afternoons, but expect those to be few and far between. High temperatures are mainly expected to be in the middle 90s, but some locations could creep into the upper 90s by Sunday or Monday. At this point it appears that heat index values will fall short of our Heat Advisory criteria (108F) today and Saturday, but should meet criteria Sunday and potentially near Extreme Heat Warning criteria (113F) on Monday. We`ll take those on a day by day basis, with no headlines today. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Deep-layer moisture is forecast to remain relatively limited beneath the ridge, but sufficient boundary-layer moisture will persist to produce dangerous heat indices. Peak heat indices could reach 110 to 115 degrees Monday through Wednesday. Heat Advisory criteria appears increasingly likely across much of the area. The duration of the heat will be as important as any individual afternoon maximum. Overnight lows will trend into the upper 70s across much of the CWA, with lows around or above 80 degrees in the New Orleans metropolitan area, along the immediate coast, and near the tidal lakes. This will provide increasingly poor overnight recovery and support accumulating heat stress through the period. Confidence continues to increase in a prolonged heat event, but near normal regarding the exact magnitude of peak heat indices. Rain chances each day will remain near 10% as strong subsidence should prevent meaningful convective coverage. However, a rogue late- afternoon storm could still develop along a sea- breeze or other localized boundary. Thus, most locations will remain dry each day, and any isolated storm would provide only very localized and temporary relief from the heat. However, NBM deterministic guidance is higher than most of the other deterministic and ensemble-based model guidance so this may be overzealous. This is especially true given that it appears that the upper-ridge anchored over the SW- central CONUS could erode as a trough digs into the SE CONUS mid- late week. Eroding the ridge could provide some slight reprieve to the heat and also allow afternoon storm chances to increase back toward climatological norms. That probably wouldn`t occur until beyond Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 A few patches of clouds around FL020 and a few patches of light fog (vsbys 2-4SM) have produced brief flight restrictions this morning at KASD, KHDC and KMCB. Conditions have already improved at KASD, and should at the other two terminals within an hour or two after sunrise. Beyond that point, don`t expect any flight restrictions for the remainder of the day, and most or all of the overnight hours tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 With the remnants of Bertha well to the west over Texas, marine conditions have settled down significantly compared to 24 hours ago. Winds aren`t expected to be much more than 10 to 15 knots for most of the next 5 days. The stronger winds would most likely be during the evening and overnight hours, and can`t entirely eliminate the possibility of brief periods where Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines might be necessary, but don`t envision those over at least the next 48 hours. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....TJS AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW