194
FXUS64 KLIX 250604
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1204 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1147 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

 - No appreciable changes in freezing rain potential. Ice Storm
   Warning remains the same but did expand the Winter Weather
   Advisory slightly. Winter Storm Watch unchanged. One quarter
   inch or more of freezing rain is possible.

 - Potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms today near
   and south of the warm front, with the greatest chances along
   the Mississippi coast. Main threat would be a tornado or 2.

 - Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for all of the area tonight
   through Tuesday morning. Winds chills could range from near 0
   to 15 degrees Monday morning and from the mid single digits to
   upper teens Tuesday morning.

 - A Small Craft Advisory(SCY) and a Gale Warning remain in effect
   for all of the coastal waters today through Monday with
   strongest winds and roughest seas tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

A strong shortwave trough embedded within the broader CONUS trough
is currently sharpening while its dives across the 4-Corners. At
the same time, a southern-stream upper low that crossed the Baja
of California is merging with that shortwave as it enters West
Texas. As those 2 features phase into a singular feature, they
then swing through the Lower Mississippi Valley. A steady stream
of mid level moisture can be seen on WV flowing across the
southern US sourced from the Pacific southwest of Mexico. At the
surface, a weak low is developing in the northwestern Gulf south
of KLCH and will be tracking northeastward. A warm front extends
from that low into the CWA, basically bisecting the forecast area.
Those in the warm sector will face dense fog through the morning
hours as warm air with dewpoints in the 60s with coastal Tds near
70.

Its here, along coastal areas, where actually is some potential for
severe weather today. If you look at soundings, cold air aloft
combined with those mid 60 degree temps and you`re seeing some
really decent elevated instability. The more impressive parameters
are high shear (not surprising this time if year), moderate helicity
and climatologically high PW`s. So do have some concern for rotating
cells. Surface based? That will be the biggest challenge for
convection and could be hindered but water temps.

Back to winter wx....surface obs show the freezing located along
northern LA and MS basically hasn`t budged since at least noon
Saturday. However, as the base of the shortwave trough finally
starts really progressing eastward into Central Texas tonight,
thinking is that it will start to shove that cold airmass and
freezing line south/east. As the cold air arrives, so does dry air
aloft. CAMs mixed on how far into the CWA the sub-freezing air
reaches before it dries out. They range from as far southeast
Iberville to Washington Parish to as little CWA protrusion as barely
skimming Wilkinson County. Taking all that into account is what has
driven conservative Winter Storm Watch area, expansing of
Winter Advisory, and only including Wilkinson Co in the ISW.

As the rain comes to an end and subfreezing temps are advected in,
there will be a window of opportunity for black ice to develop.
Where freezing rain falls will obviously be the most likely and
accumulation, or lack there of, will drive that the most. For the
rest of the areas that just get rain, majority of locations will
have a wind of a few to several hours of no rain but with steady
north winds which should dry out wet elevated roadways before they
have a chance to freeze.

Regardless of the freezing rain, the arguably bigger hazard for
greater % of those in our CWA will be very cold morning temps Monday
and Tuesday. Strong high pressure (10351040 mb) builds in and
drives the cold air deeper into the region. Multiple nights of hard
freeze conditions appear likely next week, and parts of the far
northern parishes/counties could remain near or below freezing for
3050 hours. Woodville MS, for example, may be at/below freezing
from mid morning today until late morning Tuesday!!! Adding wind
into the mix and you really get some very cold wind chills. Think
single digits along/north if I-12, then 10-20 degrees elsewhere
Monday morning. Extreme cold warning in effect for the next 2 nights
for those cold temps.

Will we see temps rebound after Tuesday? Probably not. Realistically
likely looking at continued cold though not bitterly cold the rest
of next week.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 140 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

If there`s a bright spot, the work week looks dry. The bad news
is...it won`t be warm. High pressure settles over the area Monday
into midweek. The northwest corner of the area may not even
recover above freezing on Monday, and even the "warmer" portions
of the area are only looking at temperatures in the lower or
middle 40s for a few hours Monday afternoon before falling back
below freezing Monday night. Actual air temperatures Tuesday
morning WILL be colder (mid teens to mid 20s) than Monday
morning`s lows, but without the wind. Those lows will certainly
have the potential to cause issues with exposed water pipes. In
any case, the Extreme Cold Warning will be continued until noon
Tuesday. Highs Tuesday should recover into the mid 40s. Much of
the area could see several additional mornings below freezing, but
daytime highs should slowly moderate from the mid and upper 40s
Tuesday to the mid and upper 50s Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Most terminals are currently IFR or lower due to low ceilings and
some lingering fog in a few spots. The fog is expected to mix out as
the winds start shifting and picking up in speed. MVFR to IFR
conditions will still remain due to ceilings throughout the whole
forecast period. There`s currently a lull in shower and storm
activity but another round will move in early Sunday morning which
could impact visibilities again. Any showers/storms should begin to
taper off late in the forecast period. Winds will also become more
blustery with sustained winds up to 15 knots out of north/northwest
with gusts up to 25-30 kts possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

A surface low is beginning to develop in the northwestern Gulf while
a nearly stalled warm front is draped across the nearshore waters
from that low eastward to basically Apalachee Bay. CAMs suggest that
the low really never deepens but still tracks northeast into
southeast LA. At the same time, upper level trough digging south
drives a cold front into and through the local area. Expect strong
northwesterly winds to first enter tidal lakes by daybreak Sunday
and progress southeastward throughout the morning hours. Should
be noted that winds my temporarily strengthen to near Gale right
ahead of the front just before it passes. Gale conditions likely
to be observed Sunday night as cold air advection and the surface
pressure gradient hit their peak. Winds then relax back down to
steady SCY and remain there until Tuesday morning when the surface
ridge gets close enough to allow for winds to subside. Another
weaker cold front may come through mid week but at this time looks
like will not result in Small Craft Advisory conditions. &&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for LAZ034>037-
     046>048.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for LAZ034>036.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Winter Storm Watch through Sunday afternoon for LAZ037-039-
     046>048-071-083.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for LAZ056>060-064>070-
     076>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for GMZ530-532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ068>070.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ069.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Winter Storm Watch through Sunday afternoon for MSZ070-071.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for MSZ086>088.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ068.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-538-
     550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...ME