114
FXUS64 KLIX 220503
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1203 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Dangerous heat continues with afternoon heat indices in the
  105-113 degree range through the weekend. Warm overnight
  temperatures will offer limited relief.

- Isolated storms are expected this afternoon and evening with
  more scattered storms Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

WV imagery shows the large stacked high over the SW CONUS sharply
amplified northward into the west coast of Canada. This sharp
amplification is what causeD the trough to the east of it to drop
quickly into the deep south over our area. This trough will now
get tempered and settle back into the SE CONUS where we should see
the normal daily sh/ts develop. This does not mean there will be
no storms here, we just won`t see what we did yesterday. The
stacked high will begin to shift east again and settle in the
northern TX panhandle by the start of the new week. The good thing
is that we will be in the "ring of fire" area on its periphery.
We will get hot with heat advisories continuing and it is this
heat that will help produce the storms that we see Sunday and
Monday. We will remain in a northerly to NW flow pattern, so
storms each day will still have the potential to become strong to
severe.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Going into Wednesday and especially Thursday there will finally be
somewhat of a pattern change. A fairly robust H5 short wave will dig
over the Ozarks and down the MS River Valley. This will allow for
higher POPs and lower afternoon temps going late into the next
workweek. Wednesday POPs will be around climo during the diurnal
cycle. By Thursday with the upper support and the upper level ridge
losing some of its grip, more numerous showers and storms will be
possible. Globals have continued to illustrate the same picture, so
NBM has finally adjusted upward in POPs and downward with
temperatures just a skosh. That said, heat headlines may still be
needed on Wednesday. And sadly we cannot completely rule them out
throughout the entire long term period. However, with more moisture
around and upper level support helping trigger those diurnally
driven showers and storms, an earlier initiation time will be likely
overall limit the impacts from the heat. As time progresses and in
building a bit more certainty in higher than climo POPs for Thursday
and Friday, we may be able to bring down temperatures further
allowing for more limits on those continued heat headlines. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Most terminals will be VFR through this cycle with
the exception of HUM. HUM will have the higher of all sites for TSRA
late today so the current pack will show timing in a prob group for
this.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a
generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period.
Northely winds around 10 knots will become W then SW to start the
week. A predominantly light southerly flow will set up by mid week
and remain through much of next week. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in
and near this activity.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE