316
FXUS64 KLIX 310658
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
158 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1253 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- Drier pattern through Tuesday with increased rain chances
  returning late in the week.

- Summertime temps are here with highs around 90 degrees and heat
  indicies of 100 to 105 through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

No significant changes in thinking from the previous forecasts as
a broad ridge axis dominates the region through Tuesday.
Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above average in
the upper 80s along the immediate coast and the low to mid 90s
further inland as subsidence aloft warms the overall atmosphere.
As these temperatures climb, heat index values will rise to
between 100 and 105 degrees each afternoon through Tuesday.
Although these heat index values are lower than our heat advisory
issuance criteria, the early season nature of this heat could
induce higher heat illness impacts than typically seen later in
the Summer months when the population has become more acclimated
to the hot conditions. This is reflected well by the area being in
moderate to major HeatRisk today, tomorrow, and Tuesday. Major
HeatRisk indicates that the broader population will be at risk of
heat illness if proper precautions are not taken.

Beyond the heat impacts, the pattern will also be very Summer
like in terms of convective potential. Although there will be some
warming in the mid-levels, lapse rates and overall mixed layer
CAPE values will favor some diurnally induced convective activity
each afternoon. The convection will tend to develop along the
seabreeze boundary or other weak convergence boundaries and then
spread outward on new outflows through the afternoon hours. As
daytime heating wanes and CAPE decreases in the evening hours, the
convective activity will quickly dissipate today and tomorrow.
Most of the convection will remain on the weaker side, but a few
storms could develop deeper updrafts and turn strong. These deeper
updrafts could entrain some drier mid-level air and a few wet
microbursts cannot be ruled out today, tomorrow, and Tuesday.
This is supported by DCAPE values of around 1000 J/KG.

A weak backdoor cold front associated with a strong longwave
trough axis digging into the eastern seaboard Tuesday night and
Wednesday will sweep through the region and then stall just
offshore in the coastal waters. A line of showers and
thunderstorms should accompany the front as it pushes through
Tuesday night and a few of these storms could also turn strong
with gusty winds being the main concern.  As northeast flow
develops behind the front both cold and dry air advection will
take hold. PWATS will fall significantly to less than 1.25
inches, and this will greatly limit convective potential over most
of the forecast area on Wednesday. The only area where some
scattered convection may try to develop would be along the
Louisiana coast where a suppressed seabreeze could help to spark
off some weaker storms in the late afternoon hours. Otherwise, a
largely clear and dry day should be on tap for the region. The
weak cold air advection will also allow temperatures to cool back
to average in the mid to upper 80s and heat index values will
drop back into the low 90s on Wednesday. Thus, the heat illness
concerns will diminish for the broader population, but will
continue for those most vulnerable to warm temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Upper ridging will be building across the lower Mississippi River
Valley by Wednesday night, and is likely to remain over or near the
local area at the end of the week into the weekend. The ECMWF and
GFS operational runs from 12z Saturday aren`t in agreement on timing
and location but are fairly close on the general scenario. The ECMWF
is somewhat further north with the center of the ridging, which
would keep the convection that fires around the periphery of the
ridge well away from us, while the GFS solution would have organized
convection closer to the local area. Precipitable water values look
to rebound from levels early in the week by Thursday and probably be
well above the 75th percentile at the end of next week and over next
weekend. With abundant moisture available, we`ll expect scattered
diurnally favored convection (daytime over land, night over water).
No indications of a mid-level cap on forecast soundings yet. That is
about the only thing that could significantly hinder storm
development.

The deep trough off the Atlantic Coast may pull a front into the
area at midweek, bringing slightly cooler and drier air to the area
for about 48 hours. But we`re only talking mid 80s for highs and mid
to upper 60s for lows vs. highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Any adjustments in temperatures
in the long term period would only be a degree or two at most, so we
are unlikely to make adjustments. If nothing else, that should lower
the heat risk for the local area for a few days around Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Largely VFR conditions will be in place through the entire
forecast period at the majority of the terminals as a dry and more
stable area of high pressure dominates the region. However, at MCB
some weak boundary layer decoupling this morning could produce a
period of IFR conditions as low stratus around 500 feet forms
around daybreak. The forecast calls for these conditions from 10z
to 14z with rapid clearing taking place after 14z as the weak
inversion mixes out. Although a very isolated thunderstorm may
develop near GPT or MCB between 18z and 00z, the overall
probabilities are too low to mention in the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

A broad area of high pressure will keep conditions over the waters
relatively benign.  Winds will be light at 10 knots or less and seas
will remain below 2 feet. The seabreeze cycle will lead to some
variability in wind direction near the coast, and a few
thunderstorms could fire up in relation to this seabreeze/landbreeze
cycle.  Any storms will be short-lived and will produce locally
gusty winds and lightning.  A weak cold front is still expected to
slip into the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Winds will turn
northeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 knots in the wake of this
weak front.  Thunderstorm activity will be a bit more widespread as
the front moves through, and a few stronger storms with high wind
gusts could develop.  By Thursday and Friday, the front will
dissipate and a return to a prevailing southeast wind is expected.
However, the pressure gradient over the northern Gulf will tighten
up as a low forms over the western Gulf and a broad high remains
centered over the Southeastern states.  This will push winds into
the 15 to 20 knot range by the end of the week and seas will
increase to 3 to 5 feet.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG