Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
024 FXUS64 KLIX 012338 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 538 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 533 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 - Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will be the rule for at least the next 7 to 10 days. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon during the middle to latter part of next week. While overall rain totals are forecast to be low, a few heavier storms could provide much-needed rain to localized areas. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 913 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 High pressure will dominate the upper level pattern for the next few days. Dry conditions will prevail overall through Tuesday. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than average with highs near 80 degrees for most of the week. Otherwise, no major weather concerns for the next few days. Expect a dry and mild few days ahead. There is a low chance (10-20%) of seeing patchy dense fog Monday morning, but looking at the models, it should not be less than a quarter mile for land. So a dense fog advisory was not issued. We will monitor this as we go into the evening hours. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 913 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Wednesday through the end of the week, zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern. Generally, temperatures will be quite warm with highs in the low 80s and even potentially mid 80s by the end of the week. Some popup scattered showers will be expected especially as we head toward Thursday and Friday. These scattered showers and storms will mainly be during peak daytime heating hours (3-6pm) and are not expected to be severe. We don`t expect these storms to be widespread, but if you do get a popup storm Thursday or Friday afternoons, the main threat will be lightning. Looking ahead to next weekend, some models are indicating a frontal system may be moving through the area, which could increase rain chances, but this is highly uncertain and we will see how things develop as we get closer to the end of the week. MSW && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Another round of patchy fog and associated low stratus will be the primary concern for aviators over the next 24 hours. Strong radiational cooling and light boundary layer flow will allow the boundary layer to decouple once again. As this occurs, fog will start to develop over land. The most impacted terminals will be GPT, ASD, HDC, and BTR where sufficient humidity will be in place. These terminals will see fog and low stratus start to form as early as 06z. Visibilities and ceilings will turn IFR at these terminals by 09z and these conditions should linger trough 15z before rapidly improving due to increasing daytime heating. At MCB, just enough dry air mixing into the boundary layer will prohibit fog development. At NEW and HUM, the fog will be more transient and last for a shorther period of time, generally between 12z and 14z. MSY is tricky as there could be a brief period of fog around 12z, but have opted to leave it out of the forecast for now due to the low probabilities currently in place. Once the fog and stratus clears, VFR conditions will be the rule at all of the terminals. PG && .MARINE... Issued at 913 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Benign conditions will settle over the coastal waters for the rest of the weekend. Light northeasterly to easterly winds will prevail through Monday before shifting to a stronger onshore flow starting Tuesday where cautionary headlines may be needed. Low chances of rain return for the offshore waters around mid week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...PG MARINE...MSW