Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
405 FXUS64 KLIX 241007 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 507 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 455 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 - Well above average high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s will occur next week. Heat index values will climb into the upper 90s. - The threat for showers and strong thunderstorms will increase going into the weekend and next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Climatology will win out over the short term. The synoptic set up is very common for this time of year. Large high over the Atlantic ridging into the gulf at the mid to low levels while zonal flow in the upper levels out west turns into WNW to NW flow from TX eastward. This sets up an area where frontal zones stall and continuously develop disturbances about every 12 to 18 hours. These disturbances will follow this flow down into the SE CONUS bringing sh/ts into our area. This is where things become a bit more mesoscale as we drill down into placement and timing. Placement is more difficult than timing in this scenario. As the ridging over the gulf holds, these disurbances will begin to fall apart as they move toward the gulf. Just how far south they get is questionable, but current thinking is that a few if not most of them will reach the gulf coast. These systems will be stonger the farther north of the coast one moves. The first of these will move into or at least near the area late today. We can already see the initialization of this over Oklahoma this morning as storms develop SW along the stalled frontal axis. This will leave this zone later today and move toward our area with more development ahead of it as well. The ridging over the gulf will sink south just enough to allow the weak 850mb trough to move a bit more south and set up from Mobile to Monroe. The oriention of this weakness will be important over the coming days as it will give the path that these systems will take. The orientation, at least Sat and a good portion of Sun, will remain within this same region and move northward Monday. As MCS features move SE along this boundary, outflow areas will develop new storms farther north and south of the main complex, and this is where we get some sh/ts each day through Sunday. Monday, is a bit different as the weakness moves north and the stalled front out west starts to move east, we will see little in the way of sh/ts around. But this should be temporary. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Thursday night) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 The long term period will mostly be focused on the well above average temperatures. In fact, there will be some locations that near record high temperatures early to midweek next week as H5 riding takes shape over the western Gulf. This will position our region on the northern periphery of the ridge leading to a more zonal or progressive pattern. At the surface a front tries to move southward, but ultimately gets hung up in the west to east flow aloft. A series of impulses will likely ride eastward within this pattern and generate periods of convection generally along and north of the I20 corridor. The northern tier could be close enough for some activity. Some diurnally driven activity may be possible during the afternoon and if the upper levels do position into a more northwest flow (an upper ridge amplifying to our west) then we would likely have a better chance of an MCS or two late in the period. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 VFR conditions for most with MCB, BTR and ASD being the exceptions this morning with IFR to MVFR cigs. Even these cigs will go VFR shortly after sunrise. These low cigs will once again move in tonight for most if not all terminals mainly after midnight. Some TSRA could enter sites over the northern half of the area by late afternoon into the evening causing temp IFR vis and cigs as well. && .MARINE... Issued at 1128 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 A very early Summer like weather set up will keep a persistent south- southeast flow of 10 to 15 knots in place through the middle of next week. Seas will remain well below any hazardous limits at 1 to 3 feet through the period. The main concern will be a series of thunderstorm complexes that are expected to slide down from the northwest and move into the waters starting Saturday and then potentially lasting through the middle of next week. If a thunderstorm complex does move into the waters, a period of stronger winds, heavy rainfall, and lightning will accompany the storms. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...RDF MARINE...TE