050
FXUS64 KLIX 011130
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
530 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

 - A surface low will approach the area today from the southwest,
   spreading light to moderate rain across the area. Best timing
   will be from late morning through around daybreak Tuesday.
   Area averaged rainfall totals of 0.5-1.5" can be expected, but
   could see a band of locally greater rainfall totals of 1.5-2+"
   for NW or central areas.

 - Much colder air filters into the region following this system,
   providing another freeze for areas along/north of I-10/12
   Wednesday morning.

 - This active pattern continues going into Thursday and Friday,
   with another system expected to deliver rain to the area. More
   details on this system will become clearer over the next few
   days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Plenty to discuss tonight as we`ve entered a temporary lull
between two systems. The first one earlier today produced light
showers for a few areas, dissipating towards the east leaving only
drizzle behind and since, has turned fully dry across the entire
area. Meanwhile, CAA has built into the region following a frontal
passage introducing noticeably cooler air to the area. Had to
play a little catchup with temperatures earlier as CAA overwhelmed
the diurnal curvature late afternoon into the evening, revealing
a slight reduction and has since lowered MinT`s towards Monday
morning towards the cooler side of guidance (blend of 75th and
50th, deterministic was above the 75th) to follow this trend.

Monday starts out cool and cloudy for all areas, while we shift
our focus to the southwest at our next system. A subtle impulse
crossing the Mexican plateau, coupled with an approaching positive
tilt shortwave trough over the central/southern Rockies will
support downstream divergence and eventual low-genisis in the
western Gulf, riding this low northeast over the remnant frontal
boundary during the day on Monday into Monday night. Quite the
overall dynamic meteorological setup with a broad low passing
generally over out coastal/marine areas, with plenty going on in
the meteorological realm. Greatest/strongest 300k isentropic
lift/ascent will remain confined near the low and to the east,
supporting increasing shower activity spreading inland over
coastal MS/AL, meanwhile, overrunning deeper curl-back of H6-H7
isentropic ascent combined with dynamic ascent will support an
elevated shield of stratiform precipitation to the northwest. As
mentioned for a few days now, the synoptic support for a
deformation band to form remains possible somewhere from Lafayette
to Hattiesburg, as the RRFS-A continues to depict and now, to a
slightly lesser extent, recent HRRR runs. Going through the HREF
suite shows a diverse number of solutions representing different
banding intensities (NAM Nest and HRW NSSL being the most
prominent along with the RRFS-A, with the recent HRRR and ARW/FV3
mix being a bit more "watered down" - no pun intended).
Regardless, the more extreme members depict a very noticeable
higher QPF corridor, somewhere in the 2-3" range in the corridor
mentioned earlier, with more widespread 0.5-1.5" elsewhere. I`m
not seeing any distinctly concerning impacts related to this
potential band, as rainfall intensities in an elevated stratiform
shield should be relatively moderate and over a longer duration,
at best. Probably slow enough to allow the ground to soak up some
of this water, which we need. We`ll monitor if this band is more
intense and is slow in any eastward progression (resulting in
training), where flooding could occur but for now, concur with the
area- wide marginal risk of excessive rainfall.

Additional notes include seeing some 100-200j/KG MUCAPE across the
region, could have a rumble of thunder or two but kept the best
probabilities/mention of thunder confined closer to the
steepest/strongest isentropic ascent near and to the east of the
low`s track. Might also get a few strong to locally severe storms
in the warm sector or closest to the lift associated with the low.
Also, highs during the day on Monday were nudged down due to
widespread cloud cover and light stratiform showers building into
the region during the morning/afternoon, probably starting as
virga as we`ve got quite the dry layer aloft between H7-H5 per the 00Z
KLIX RAOB.

All rain departs early Tuesday morning to around daybreak Tuesday,
becoming lighter with time and CAA/NW winds build into the region.
Skies clear out as we get into the late morning/afternoon but
still overall chilly with highs primarily in the 50`s with a
breezy NW wind.

That`ll bring us to Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as the bulk of
the continental polar airmass settles into the region supported by
a surface high over the northern Gulf. Clear skies and calm winds
will support maximized radiational cooling to bring a cold night
for all areas. Guidance coming in pretty warm, above the 75th
percentile and did add in a nudge down below the 75th, this brings
below freezing temperatures along and north of the I-10/12
corridor, where Freeze Warnings will likely be in effect. Not
reaching the Southshore yet with upper 30`s to low 40`s. KLG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

High pressure builds east of the region during the day on
Wednesday, producing a steady E to SE sfc return flow back to the
area. The next system is ready to take shape over the southern
US/western Gulf in a similar setup to what we`ll see today - a
positive tilt trough diving into the central/southern Rockies and
a secondary upper-level low over Baja ejecting energy NE across
the Mexican Plateau. Build WAA and dynamic ascent in the region
will support yet another round of showers Thursday into Friday.
Still have some questions on specifics, but will wait for as we
get closer but it is looking likely we`ll see another soaker
Thursday and Friday. We try to see a brief dry period getting into
Saturday, but it looks short-lived as long-range guidance hints at
a pretty active quasi-zontal H5 pattern over the US, providing
quick-hitting systems to continue. Something to monitor. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A low pressure system and stationary front over the area will keep
IFR ceilings in place through tomorrow morning. Ceilings will
generally range between 500 and 800 feet. As the low strengthens
later today, an area of light to moderate rain will form over all
of the terminals. The rain will be heaviest generally from the
late afternoon through the early overnight hours, or generally
between 21z and 08z. The rain will reduce visiblities to 2 to 3
miles for several hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Changes since last update: Added Small Craft Advisory for GMZ575 and
577 in effect through noon Monday. Exercise caution for all waters
expect MS sound and Lake Pontchartrain/Maurepas from Noon Monday
through 9PM Monday night.

New: Small Craft Advisory in effect for all waters 9PM Monday
through 3PM Tuesday.

Tonight, a recent frontal passage has introduced gusty wind at
around 18-22kts from the NE, which will persist overnight into
Monday morning ahead of the next developing surface low over the
western Gulf. As this low drifts northeast, it`ll cross gulf waters
providing a round of heavy rain and thunderstorms primarily from
Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. In any one storm,
waterspouts, winds <34kts and locally higher waves/seas can be
expected. As this low passes, confidence on how strong winds will
remain outside of thunderstorms remains in question. There is now
exercise caution headlines as the low passes, but could be upgraded
to advisory if conditions warrant. Then, as the low passes early
Tuesday to the NE, strong NW winds will increase across waters at
around 15-20kts, with the 2nd round of Advisory headlines in effect.
Waves/seas will respond reaching around 5-7ft in this time frame
mainly for Gulf waters, 3-5ft for protected waters. High pressure
builds into the region mid-week, with winds and waves/seas calming
down, but still expecting another system to impact the region
Thursday and Friday, with increasing winds and shower/thunderstorm
activity expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  37  49  27 /  90 100  10   0
BTR  59  39  52  29 /  90 100  10   0
ASD  64  42  55  26 /  70 100  10   0
MSY  64  47  56  40 /  70 100  10   0
GPT  64  46  57  32 /  60 100  10   0
PQL  64  46  58  27 /  60 100  20   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...KLG