506
FXUS64 KLIX 271045
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
545 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 439 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Impactful heat conditions will persist well into the new week.
  Mid week will be the most intense days with heat indices 110-115
  degrees.

- Rain chances will remain very low through Wednesday. Scattered
  thunderstorms should return Thursday through Saturday as the
  upper ridge weakens and a frontal boundary settles toward the
  northern Gulf Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Strong heating each day in the short term with little relief. The
extreme heat watch that is currently on the table will likely
become a warning for Tuesday. The next real chance of any sh/ts
activity will be late in the day Wed. Large scale(synoptic)
pattern is setting up now with a deep upper trough over the east
coast and a large amplitude stacked high over the western half of
the continent. This flow will set our area in line with the NW
flow where these two systems meet(stalled frontal axis or "ring
of fire" as most call it). This will, at first, be farther east of
the area until late Wed when this demarked axis moves over our
area and brings MCS style features SEward into the area by late in
the day Wed. At the moment, this would be the earliest we would
see something regarding numbers of storms increase at least over
coastal Miss. Thu will see these sh/ts reach farther westward into
the area during the heating of the day. By the time these storms
move in and/or develop will be too late to keep temps from
reaching their warmest levels of the day, so heat issues may
continue at least through Wed. We will need to reassess for Thu
since there could be more cloud cover around.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Going into Friday models are still trying to advertise some
afternoon convection along the stalled surface front over our
region. Aloft, the East Coast trough will remain in place with a
strong 601dam H5 ridge centered close to the four corners. A weak
shortwave ridge does appear on the GFS over the region, which could
help suppress diurnally driven convection on Friday, but the ECM`s
QPF signal is there favoring surface convergence a bit more and it
appears to be the wetter solution at this point.

Saturday and Sunday eyes focus to the northwest as an upper level
trough begins to amplify over the Mid Mississippi River Valley,
which will bring higher rain chances back into the region,
especially Sunday. Given the strong northwest/northerly flow there
could be a late season MCS or two with strong gusty winds being
possible along with some localized flash flooding possible given the
average QPF values of 2 to 3 inches during the long term period.

As for temperatures, expect Friday to be slightly warmer, especially
if the GFS is correct with the shortwave ridge aloft and limited
afternoon convection. That said, some relief will come in the way of
showers and storms, especially on Sunday where the region barely
touches the 90s given the increase in clouds and QPF. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR through this taf cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

High pressure will gradually shift southward, establishing a
predominantly westerly flow regime through the middle of the
workweek. There will be the usual diurnal increase in winds over the
eastern waters where winds approach and sometimes slightly exceed 15
knots during the evening and part of the overnight hours before
diminishing.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-
     089>100.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056-071-091-093>097.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for LAZ057-058-064-070-076>087-089-090-092-098>100.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>085.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for MSZ086>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE