151
FXUS64 KLIX 160445
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1145 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Active weather pattern will continue to start the work week as
weak troughing aloft persists. Surface high pressure is still
centered over the western Atlantic with the western periphery
stretching into the north-central Gulf. This will maintain onshore
flow in the low levels, bringing ample Gulf moisture into the
local area.

With an abundance of moisture and a relatively unstable air mass
in place, the only thing needed to fire off convection is a
trigger - which will again come in the form of daytime heating.
That being said, expect a fairly typical dirunal pattern to the
convective activity, with showers and storms tapering off this
evening, remaining generally quiet overnight, and popping back up
during the mid to late morning hours with a peak during the
afternoon.

As has been the case the last several days, some of the stronger
storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent
lightning and heavy rainfall.

Afternoon temperatures will continue to be near normal, with
warmer than normal overnight temperatures owing to the humid
airmass which will inhibit radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

With no significant changes in the pattern, expect higher than
normal rain chances to continue through midweek as upper troughing
continues to lead to instability across the region. Upper trough
axis finally starts to flatten out and lift northeastward midweek,
with weak upper ridging building into the area by Friday and
Saturday.

NBM continues to carry higher POPs even into the weekend, and
this appears unrealistic given the expectation of upper ridging
building in. This is likely a result of bias correction not
accounting for the pattern change. That being said, have once
again lowered POPs during the Friday/Saturday time frame and am
generally carrying 40-60% POPs compared to the NBM`s 70% plus.
Additional adjustments may be necessary given the current
forecast is still above both the GFS and Euro ensemble means and
is even above the 90th percentile in the ECMWF ensemble.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Current VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight with
generally light southerly/southwesterly winds. MCB has chance for
brief period of fog with VIS to 3SM and CIG at 500 ft for several
hours beginning 10Z. Showers begin to build around 18Z with
afternoon heating and convection intensifies to TSRA through the
early evening.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

High pressure centered east of the local area will keep onshore
flow in place through the period, generally 15 kts or lighter.
Expect to see daily showers and storms, with higher winds and seas
in the vicinity of this activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  71  89  72 /  70  30  70  20
BTR  92  73  91  74 /  80  30  80  20
ASD  91  72  91  74 /  70  40  70  20
MSY  92  77  91  77 /  80  30  70  10
GPT  89  75  88  76 /  60  40  60  20
PQL  90  74  89  75 /  50  30  50  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DM