Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
585 FXUS64 KLIX 291850 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 150 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Current upper level analysis shows a closed low centered north of Maine with broad troughing eastern third/half of the country and ridge centered south of West Texas. A shortwave embedded within the western side of the trough eroded the eastern side of the ridge that was overhead of the CWA. That put the CWA right on the path of northwest flow which opened the door to convective development which has been realized. Latest radar trends have been showing a gradual but appreciable weakening trend as the rain shield moves farther south of the boundary stalled over SELA and southern MS. CAMs in general doing a decent job with activity today with RRFS doing particularly well. Once current activity dissipates this afternoon/evening, should be looking a lull in rain for a few to several hours. The question is whether storms redevelop overnight along either residual boundary left by current convection or along the stalled front or neither. So although lower confidence then the next 6 hours, do think there will be at least some activity along the LA and MS coastal parishes/counties overnight. Global models are surprisingly more bullish on coverage Saturday. Tend to think thats more likely the better forecast as daytime heating, high PWs in place (well over 2") and stalled front still nearby as a moisture convergence zone. MEFFER && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Global models consistently show the trough to the east broadening back west which in-tern weakens ridging aloft even more. With lingering frontal boundary, loss of subsidence, and PW`s sitting around 2.25"...widespread rain chances appear quite probable the entire weekend. Rain chance forecast calls for 50 to 80% and may be on the low side at times. Model sounding wind profile in the column suggests potential for back building setup. It`ll be crucial for storms to be monitored for this, especially over urban areas as precip processes should be quite efficient given expected PWs and mid level instability that`ll still be in place. Uncertainty increased Tuesday onward as models diverge on how much the trough to the east digs south. More digging will push drier airmass into the CWA. If that doesn`t happen, wetter pattern continues. MEFFER && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 IFR to MVFR conditions will prevail through most of the day as light to moderate showers continue to move southeast over the region. CAMs suggest generally gradual weakening over the next few hours with most activity dissipating before sunset. A shortwave passing over the area overnight looks to reignite convection though more scattered in nature. May need to add more PROB30 groups for the overnight period. MEFFER && .MARINE... Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 The main marine concern during the next few days of the forecast period will be the increasing threat for thunderstorms that could produce locally higher winds and seas. Stable airmass along the coast today will probably limit convection but not going to be the case this weekend. Gusty outflow winds upwards of gale force are the main threat. This pattern continues into early next week as a backdoor cold front gradually pushes into the coastal waters. The current wind forecast would indicate generally offshore flow by late Sunday afternoon for most or all of the waters as a backdoor cold front pushes in from the northeast. If the front makes it well into the Gulf early next week, that may justify Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines by Monday or Tuesday. MEFFER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 69 85 69 87 / 60 40 10 20 BTR 73 88 71 90 / 60 50 10 30 ASD 70 87 69 87 / 70 60 20 30 MSY 76 89 77 90 / 60 60 20 40 GPT 71 85 71 87 / 80 70 20 30 PQL 71 86 69 87 / 80 80 20 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...ME MARINE...ME