268
FXUS64 KLIX 091748
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1248 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- Complex 1: What`s left of it will continue to slide south into
  the northern Gulf this afternoon, however a lingering boundary
  over south-central LA/Atchafalaya Basin will continue to
  support ongoing flooding concerns mainly along/south of I-10/12
  thru this evening.

- Additional Development this Evening: Across SW LA could re-
  introduce more scattered to numerous storms later this
  afternoon/evening. Greatest confidence: West of I-55, then this
  activity (should) clear out tonight.

- Complex 2: Monitoring upstream development over the ArkLaTex
  region early Sunday morning and how this will evolve as it moves
  southeast towards our area later on Sunday into Sunday
  Night/Monday Morning. Confidence is greater on this idea, but
  models are still struggling at initial depth/strength of
  development. Something to continue to monitor.

- Impacts: Main risks will continue to be areas of flash flooding,
  large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, isolated tornadoes will
  the the overall lowest risk. This is a low-cofidence forecast
  regime, people with outdoor plans should remain weather-aware.

- By Monday, the final activity slides through and we begin to
  clear out Tuesday thru late-week, entering another dry period
  with temps warming back to the upper 80`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM/MESOSCALE...
(Now through Monday Night)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Well, this is complicated, so bare with me. Starting out with
this afternoon, yet another in a series of many disorganized MCS
clusters have rolled through the area, providing widespread heavy
rain through the morning. Took an easy approach at 1) lowering
highs today which also lowered the diurnal curvature throughout
the day and 2) blended in with the PPI01 NBM with a heavy lean on
the HRRR. Will strongly note after the past previous days, the
HRRR has been a rather good performer at these complicated series
of complexes. It`s very difficult to narrow down exact timing and
details, with confidence quickly dropping off after each complex
passes (because how the next evolves has everything to do with
the previous one, etc etc). So, not expecting the CAMS to nail any
of these perfectly, at all, instead, want to look at a broad
approach at the idea, utilizing RRFS/REFS trends aligned with
HRRR being the main best performer. When both models align,
confidence turns high, when they dont, we take a step back and
investigate further. This complex this morning 12-24 hours out was
well handled, and the 12Z today introduces a few items to look
at. Seeing clustering in REFS/RRFS/HRRR guidance at the idea of
continued afternoon/evening convection, which quite frankly makes
sense given the hangup of the remnant outflow boundary from the
morning complex pushing south into the Gulf, and hanging up more
NW to SE over the southern Atchafalaya Basin. This introduces a
continued focus for lift based on sfc confluence and a notable
instability gradient that likely will not move much today. In
addition, progressive westerly flow along a broad region of
weakness will surge PVA slugs our way through the day, adding to
the many subtle lift mechanisms at play (that all add up). With
all of that, said, concerned for the ongoing and continued re-
development of heavy rain showers throughout the rest of today,
and will caution specifics will be difficult, as for now it might
be a merge of heavy rain concerns along/south of I-10/12 and
additional development impacting northern areas later on. Check
back, monitor radar updates to help with plans, if needed.

Beyond this activity, if this messy amount of re-development
persists, it will try to surge east along the mean flow with time
mainly later this evening into tonight. The intensity of eastward
progression will be all dependent on how much time we have to
recover following this complex, which so far doesn`t look like
much and might just add more stratiform/heavy rain through the
evening before clearing out tonight.

Going into Sunday, Yep, hate to say it but we`ll need to monitor
yet another complex over OK, NE TX, AR and northern LA.
REFS/RRFS/HRRR guidance splits into confidence, per usual, as
initial strength/location of the development of upstream
convection will translate into the impacts we see (or don`t see)
for our area. But, for now it`s being mentioned/messaged something
to closely watch - primarily late Sunday into early Monday. The
dynamic lift associated with this is confident, don`t get me
wrong. Obvious subtle shortwave axis and attendant PVA will
support storms to ignite somewhere in the upstream area mentioned
before, but again, downstream progression will need to be
monitored. Will make one forecaster note specific to the 12Z HRRR,
I`m not buying, at all, a complex midday Sunday over northern LA
suddenly decaying during peak heating, as instability and cold
pool lift will likely keep any complex rolling through. But,
should that happen and we are largely untouched all
morning/afternoon, we`ll see enough instability to fuel pop-up
storms. Banking heavily on the idea of some sort of complex making
it through Sunday night/Monday morning. Overall, damaging winds,
large hail, isolated tornadoes and a persistent concern for flash
flooding will continue with each complex.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday Night)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Believe it or not, it`s all over going into later on Monday into
Tuesday, as this shortwave impulse continues southeast and ridging
takes over allowing for an upstream high to take over through the
rest of the week. No adjustments necessary in the extended, with
high confidence we`ll warm right back up to the upper 80`s by
mid/late week with little to no rain chances to speak of. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Ongoing +SHRA/TSRA for many area terminals through beyond 00Z can
be expected. This will bring persistent lower flight CAT due to
reduced VIS and low CIGs from heavy rain. Could see a brief lull
later tonight, but will monitor any additional complexes of storms
during the day Sunday, which for now primarily appears to be
Sunday night into Monday morning. This is a low confidence
forecast in regards to details in the extended TAF period, so
check back for updates. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

South to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will persist through the
weekend. Main impacts will be multiple clusters/periods of showers
and storms at times through Monday morning providing strong to
severe storms across marine waters. Main threats will be wind gust
greater than 34 knots and waterspouts. A frontal boundary will move
into the waters Sunday night into Monday, bringing offshore winds
and drying out conditions through the end of the upcoming week. KLG

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...KLG