391
FXUS64 KLIX 191816
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
116 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 116 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- A mostly dry pattern is expected to start the week. Temperatures
  will also increase well into the 90s and near 100 with feels
  like temperatures nearing 110 degrees during the afternoon
  Monday and Tuesday.

- Eyes are turning toward the northeast Gulf where Tropical
  Depression 2 has formed and is forecast to spread westward
  toward our general area through midweek. Impacts are still low
  confidence, but an increase in rainfall with breezy conditions
  along with potential coastal flood are becoming more and more
  possible with time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Going into the start of the new workweek we have enough to discuss
through the period. First, heat/humidity and increasing convection
during the afternoon. Second, the newly named Tropical Depression
2 over the northeast Gulf, we will start with heat first.

The area continues to reside under a weak high pressure aloft.
This is helping warm us up, but also what`s really helping is the
daily northerly flow suppressing land/water contrast. Although
surface humidities are still high, they are actually a bit lower
than the last few weeks. That said, they are high enough and now
temps are getting closer to 100F every afternoon we continue with
the heat advisories at least through Monday, if not beyond.
Additionally, before we get into the newly named TD...outside of
this feature there will be at least some modest subsidence, which
will also help keep the region slightly warmer.

Okay, now probably what you came here for. Tropical Depression
Two. Overall, the system has a nice mid level spin and the latest
ASCAT pass indicated a weak elongated surface low has, indeed,
developed. This plus the consistent convection is enough to name
the system a depression. The system is in an area of weak steering
so it has having a tough time really finding motivation to move
far fast. In time this will change as a strong H5 ridge develops
over the Red River toward midweek. Prior to this, the system is
forecast to develop very slowly into a Tropical Storm and
eventually move into our waters mid to late week. Guidance has
been a bit bearish up until last night when all globals and
respective ensembles finally came into align with the AI guidance.

The upper levels are going to be fairly hostile for this system.
Only marginally favorable conditions are found in the upper
levels. Both dry air aloft and northeasterly wind shear
increasing to nearly 30+ knots as it tries to strengthen...it
will find it hard to intensify (no rapid intensification). Still,
given the position and expected intensity as a mid range TS (name
would be Bertha) it`s possible to see minor to moderate impacts
with heavy rainfall, marine, and coastal impacts being the primary
story. There is still some time to adjust the forecast so be sure
to check back in. For now confidence is gradually increasing, but
the northerly wind shear may limit some impacts, which may offset
the system causing a more asymmetric feel leading to more of the
heavily rain and winds remaining along and south of I10...perhaps
even further south along the immediately Louisiana Coast. In
time, but for now everyone should stay up to date with the current
forecasts from our friends at NHC. (Frye)


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Going into Thursday the upper level ridge will continue to direct
the overall mean level flow over the region with a more easterly
winds aloft. This will help TD 2 move swiftly downstream and
toward the upper Texas Coast by late Thursday and Friday. At the
same time models show a surface front trying to slide southward
generally toward the southeast US, but GFS stalls it over our
region and ECM stalls it over the Appalachians. Although one
solution is a bit wetter, both still suggest the need for POPs to
address the diurnal convection. Also, temperatures will begin to
rebound once again with subsidence behind the departing tropical
system and the strong ridge building over the area once again. As
the period ends there is some hope that both the GFS and ECM are
agreeing on something finally. That would be a secondary strong
front makes it closer to the region again increasing POPs, but
also limiting heat a bit as well. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Mostly VFR conditions through the cycle with continued northerly
winds across the local terminals. That said, cannot rule out a
storm or two for the MS terminals including GPT. This will be
brief and should only be during the peak heating of the afternoon.
(Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Going into the week, eyes will sift to the northeast Gulf where the
newly form Tropical Depression 2 will meander of the next day or so.
Eventually, the storm will begin to move westward over the northern
and north central gulf coast and is forecast to increase in
intensity to a tropical storm. As the system moves over our local
waters, expect winds and seas to increase with tropical storm
conditions possible for most if not all the local waters. The system
will move east of the region later Thursday and conditions should
improve going into the upcoming weekend. (Frye)

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF