Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
790 FXUS64 KLIX 222338 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 638 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 The trough will slide south into the Gulf tonight through the weekend. Rain chances will remain during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday and Sunday as the system moves slowly southward. Conditions will likely be drier on Sunday, but recent model trends have shown Saturday being fairly dry as well with lower PoPs (20-40%). PWs are around 2 inches, which is around or above the 75th percentile for SPC sounding climatology. So, any storms that form will be quite efficient. The main concerns with these storms will be subsevere gusty winds (30-50mph) and locally heavy rainfall, especially for any urban areas if they set up. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Another cold front moves through the area Monday into Tuesday, helping to reinforce some cooler feeling temperatures. Generally, rain chances will be increased Monday afternoon and evening and Tuesday afternoon and evening with PoPs around (20-50%). These storms will likely be later initiation, later into the evening, due to the more northerly flow pattern that will set up over the area. Conditions start to dry out a little Wednesday and especially toward the end of next week. Still a lot of uncertainty on this pattern given the overall setup, but generally expecting a drier pattern to start setting up from mid- week onward. Generally, temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be in the low 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s and upper 60s across the area. MSW && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Other than some lingering stratiform rain showers at MCB and HDC that should dissipate between now and 02z, VFR conditions will prevail at all of the terminals through at least 09z. After 09z, a weak front moving southward across the area could spark off some additional convection at ASD, NEW, MSY, and HUM. Any activity will be widely scattered and the potential for development is low enough that PROB30 wording is in place to reflect the convective risk. MVFR visibilities and lightning will be the primary concern with any storms that directly impact a terminal between 09z and 18z. After 18z, the convective threat will diminish at most of the terminals as drier air feeds in on the back of increasing northerly flow. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. TEMPO groups are in effect, which will include drops to MVFR conditions, for afternoon and evening showers and storms at most area airports. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Outside of showers and thunderstorms mostly favorable winds and seas are expected through the upcoming weekend. Winds will remain mostly onshore at or less than 10 knots. Winds and sea will increase in and around showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 70 93 69 94 / 30 10 10 10 BTR 72 93 71 95 / 40 20 10 10 ASD 72 92 71 94 / 20 30 20 20 MSY 77 93 77 95 / 60 30 10 30 GPT 74 91 74 93 / 50 30 20 30 PQL 72 92 72 93 / 30 30 20 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...PG MARINE...MSW