Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
279 FXUS64 KLIX 311643 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1143 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 - Drier pattern through Monday. Rain chances return to ~50-60% Tuesday afternoon. - Summertime temps are here with highs around 90 degrees and heat indicies of 100 to 105 through Tuesday. -Temperatures return to seasonable, in the mid 80s, by Wednesday and lasting through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Ridging continues to dominate the upper level pattern, though fairly broad which still allows for isolated rain chances to sneak in. This ridging looks to hold today and through the short term period, but is does begin to retrograde westward later in the short term period as trough digs through the East Coast. With this ridging pattern, temperatures are running a couple degrees above average with most areas seeing highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Not only are the MaxTs running in the 90s for many, but ApparentT`s are running in the 100-105F range as well. These values are just below our heat advisory criteria, but this we are rather early in the heat season so groups that are sensitive to heat are still at risk for heat induced illnesses. This is reflected in the HeatRisk outputs showing moderate to major risk in many areas today through Tuesday. In terms of convection, the best areas for initiation today looks to be along the sea breeze on the MS coast in the afternoon hours. Any outflow boundaries hanging around the area could also bring some isolated storms. DCAPE values are forecast to be in the realm of ~1000J/Kg which could cause some localized downburst potential. Otherwise, Monday for the most part looks to see similar conditions as today with isolated convection along boundaries. A weak frontal boundary looks to move into the area late in the short term period, bringing an increase in PoPs for Tuesday and Tuesday evening. It is worth at least a mention that a couple of the CAMs have a line of showers and storms diving south from the TN Valley area. It decays before reaching here in some runs, but a couple runs do bring some of the lingering storms down towards the MS coast. It is worth keeping an eye on. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Heading into the long term period ridging does build back into the region, but with an increase in onshore flow by Thursday we can expect moisture to increase. This keeps scattered chances for showers and storms each day. These storms are expected to be mainly diurnally driven, with storms developing along sea and lake breeze boundaries along with any local outflow boundaries sitting over the area. Pulling some forecast soundings shows most days with fairly high DCAPE, so we may see a continued risk of localized downbursts with afternoon storms. The increase in rain chances will help suppress the temperatures some, with afternoon highs back into the mid 80s each day through the end of the forecast period. Dew points will be ever so slightly lower as well following the frontal boundary moving through Wednesday, which will help it feel a bit better outside for the long term on top of the cooler high temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Prevailing VFR at all terminals late this morning. This is expected to hold through the day outside of the potential for an isolated storm at a couple terminals, mainly GPT or MCB. These storms chances aren`t quite high enough to mention in the forecast but are worth keeping an eye on. Early Monday will see some light fog chances, mainly at MCB, bringing MVFR conditions. This fog would burn off rather quickly after sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 A broad area of high pressure will keep conditions over the waters relatively benign the next couple days. Winds will be light at 10 knots or less and seas will remain below 2 feet. The seabreeze cycle will lead to some variability in wind direction near the coast, and a few thunderstorms could fire up in relation to this seabreeze/landbreeze cycle. Any storms will be short-lived and will produce locally gusty winds and lightning. A weak cold front is still expected to slip into the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds will turn northeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 knots in the wake of this weak front. Thunderstorm activity will be a bit more widespread as the front moves through, and a few stronger storms with high wind gusts could develop. By Thursday and Friday, the front will dissipate and a return to a prevailing southeast wind is expected. However, the pressure gradient over the northern Gulf will tighten up as a low forms over the western Gulf and a broad high remains centered over the Southeastern states. This will push winds into the 15 to 20 knot range by the end of the week and seas will increase to 3 to 5 feet. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HL LONG TERM....HL AVIATION...HL MARINE...HL