545
FXUS64 KLIX 232331
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
631 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Elevated fire danger will remain in place through the weekend.
  The current and worsening drought conditions and dry fuels
  combined with low humidity will lead to potential for rapid fire
  growth. Winds will strengthen a bit over the weekend leading to
  increasing concern. Residents should obey all burn bans in place
  and exercise extreme caution with any open flames outdoors even
  in areas that do not currently have burn bans in place.

- Strengthening winds across the coastal waters will lead to
  hazardous conditions for small craft through the weekend across
  all open Gulf waters of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, as
  well the sounds and lakes east of the Mississippi River.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Deep layer mid and upper level ridging will continue to dominate
the forecast area through the weekend and into early next week. A
persistent east-northeast flow regime in the low levels will also
help to keep a very dry airmass in place across the area through
Monday night. The end result will be a continuation of the
conditions we have seen the past several days with clear skies,
low humidity, and a larger than normal diurnal range of
temperatures. Winds will pick up slightly to around 10 mph over
the weekend and into early next week as the pressure gradient
increases due to the development of a broad low over Florida, but
otherwise no significant changes in the ongoing pattern are
expected. Highs will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s each
day and lows will dip into the low to mid 50s inland the upper 50s
and lower south of the tidal lakes and along the immediate coast
of Louisiana.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Overall, a dry pattern will remain in place for the middle of next
week even as the mid to upper level ridge axis shifts a bit to the
east in response to a passing southern stream shortwave trough
sliding well to the north of the forecast area. Although there
will be some moisture return that occurs in Texas and far western
Louisiana from an increasing deep layer southerly flow regime,
this will not translate over to our region. We will remain
embedded within a deep easterly flow regime with drier air still
advecting into the area from the southeastern CONUS. Temperatures
will also continue to exhibit a large diurnal range on the order
of 25 to 30 degrees. Highs will warm into the upper 70s and lower
80s and lows will still cool into the low to mid 50s over inland
areas and the upper 50s and lower 60s south of the lakes and along
the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Under the influence of high pressure, vfr conditions will prevail
through the period with winds generally 10-15 knots or lower.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

A surface high will build and become centered over the northeastern
United States tomorrow and then the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday. At
the same time, a broad low pressure system will begin to deepen over
the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This will tighten the pressure
gradient across the northern Gulf with easterly winds picking up
tonight across the open Gulf waters. These strong easterly winds
will slowly build over the protected, near shore waters, and sounds
tomorrow. Winds will become sustained near 20 knots with frequent
higher gusts and a Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters
beginning tonight and then expanding to all waters except for lakes
Pontchartrain, Maurepas, and Salvador by late Saturday morning
remains in effect. These headlines will likely remain up through the
weekend and possibly into next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Dry conditions are going to persist into the weekend as high
pressure remains over the region. Minimum RH values will fall to
between 20 and 30 percent for all areas north of I-10 both this
afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon. Winds will remain on the
lighter side today at 5 mph or less, but winds will increase to
around 10 mph for tomorrow.  Even with lighter winds, the worsening
drought conditions and low fuel moisture content will keep wild
fire spread potential on the higher side. A Fire Danger Statement
remains out due to this higher fire potential even as conditions
remain below red flag warning criteria. As we move into Sunday and
the rest of next week, increasing humidity values will help to
greatly limit fire potential even as conditions remain dry.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for
     GMZ532-534>536-557.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for
     GMZ551-553-554-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for
     GMZ534>536-557.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for
     GMZ553-554-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...PG
FIRE WEATHER...PG