Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
905 FXUS64 KLIX 022317 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 617 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 613 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day through this weekend. While the overall severe weather threat will be low, one or two storms could become strong to severe each day, producing strong to damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and periods of heavy rain. - Above normal temperatures expected most of the 7-Day forecast period. Afternoon heat indices will generally range from 100 to 107 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026 An upper ridge was over Tennessee and the Carolinas this morning. Tropical Depression Eduoard was over southeast Texas northwest of Beaumont at late morning. Another easterly wave appeared to be over Georgia this morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms were moving northwestward across the area, mainly west of Interstate 55, with most areas dry at any one time. Midday temperatures were in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew points were in the mid 70s, but may drop a few degrees more in the next hour or two. Eduoard is expected to dissipate over east Texas overnight. The weak disturbance over Georgia will drift westward and be over the local area Thursday or Friday, before it, too, dissipates. The upper ridge over Tennessee now will shift westward to Oklahoma by Saturday night. Precipitable water values are expected to remain near or above the 75th percentile (1.95 inches) through Saturday. While there are no large scale forcing mechanisms, the abundance of moisture would indicate that scattered convection is likely each afternoon. Instantaneous areal coverage may not be much more than 30- 40 percent, but for a 12 hour period, areal extent of measurable precipitation may be more along the lines of 70 percent, especially over southern portions of the area. Locally very heavy downpours could cause a few problems, but most areas will see less than an inch of rain over the next 4 days, and some areas could remain dry. Highs will continue in the 90 to 95 degree range through the end of the workweek, although areal coverage of precipitation on Friday may hold things on the lower end of that range. NBM daytime dew points have been running a little on the high side in the short term, by a degree or two, and making adjustments for that keeps heat index values below heat advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026 Upper ridging will again be drifting eastward early next week, to be centered near Nashville Tuesday evening. It seems almost as if the upper ridge is attached to Interstate 40 and just keeps shifting east and west. The ridging is likely far enough north that easterly waves could move over our area. Even without a wave moving across the area, the ridging is far enough north that convection is unlikely to be totally inhibited by subsidence. In other words, no days that are completely dry. Moisture values are expected to remain at or above the 75th percentile, so daily rounds of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, especially during the afternoon hours. Locally heavy rainfall remains possible, but is not expected to be widespread. Similarly, there`s not going to be much of a day to day change in high or low temperatures. The determining factor will be the timing of convective development at any one location. The locations that see earlier development on a given day will have the most difficult time reaching 90 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026 Convective activity has begun to dissipate quickly over the past hour and prevailing VFR conditions will be the rule at all of the terminals through 18z. After 18z, more Summer pop up showers and storms will start to develop. PROB30 wording from 18z to 23z is in place at nearly all of the terminals, except for BTR and MCB as these showers and storms fire up along the seabreeze and lakebreeze boundaries. Overall probabilities for storms are too low to include at BTR and MCB for now. Any impacts will be short-lived at an hour or less with gusty winds to 30 knots, MVFR and occasionally IFR visibility restrictions, and lightning strikes being the main concerns. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026 The pressure gradient is expected to be fairly weak the next several days, with the main potential impacts to be daily rounds of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Those will have the potential to produce locally higher winds and waves. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...PG MARINE...RW