516
FXUS64 KLIX 150832
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
332 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Today and Monday does not look much different than yesterday. Highs
for today and Monday have been lowered by a few degrees as cloud
cover and rain cooled air should be capable of holding temps in the
upper 80s with a few 90s around today. This same process has been
done for Monday as well. Higher than normal precip numbers continue
through Monday with a low but credible chance of severe storms being
produced. The main issue with any of these storms will be heavy
rainfall which can produce upwards of 1 to 1.5" totals per hour.
This can cause temporary flooding of low lying and poor drainage
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Tuesday through Thursday should be high rain prob days as we will
become the battle ground for a southerly flow environment and NW
flow moving systems into the area with the deep moisture
availability. Any given day can give an isolated heavy rain and/or
severe storm but the thinking is we will begin to slowly take these
rain chances lower by the end of the week or over the weekend. It
would be more of a normal distribution of around 30-40% so there
will remain a good opportunity for all locations to get a sh/ts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Cigs will mainly be VFR outside TSRA which will lower these levels
temporarily when they occur. MCB could see IFR cigs again late
tonight but this will lift shortly after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Southerly winds at 15kt or less is expected throughout this fcast as
we remain in a very typical summer pattern with respect to the
northern gulf waters. There is a good chance of sh/ts each day and
night. Some of these could become strong causing winds to shift and
rise abruptly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  71  89  73 /  70  20  80  20
BTR  91  74  90  75 /  80  20  90  10
ASD  90  73  90  75 /  70  20  80  20
MSY  91  77  90  78 /  80  20  90  20
GPT  88  75  88  77 /  70  30  80  40
PQL  89  74  88  75 /  60  30  70  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE