810
FXUS64 KLIX 141039
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
539 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 539 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected for much of the forecast. Highs in
  the mid to upper 90s through the weekend with heat index values
  generally running in the mid 100s to near 110 today, and then
  likely climbing into the lower 110`s this weekend. Heat
  Advisories are in place for today and Heat Warnings are likely
  Saturday, Sunday, and into the new week. The impact of the
  afternoon highs will be exacerbated by the slightly higher than
  normal overnight lows; we just won`t have a chance to cool off.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Heat will be the biggest message for the short term. Ambient temps
will be in the mid to upper 90s today but will begin to test the
century mark through the weekend. Most guidance wants to paint the
area with a lot of 99F which means that there will be several
areas moving into the 100s, and this is not heat index numbers.
But it is easy to see how heat index numbers will not have an
issue making it to heat warning criteria over the weekend. The
start of the new week does not look very different, but we may be
able to tack on a few %points to precip numbers which could give a
few locations some relief, but that would be during the hottest
part of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

The long term still continues to look hot with the upper ridge
stretched from the Desert Southwest all the way to the western
Atlantic Monday night. There is a subtle weakness in the globals
that redevelops over the southern Mississippi River Valley by
Tuesday or Wednesday as an easterly wave moves across the central
Gulf. This will NOT break the heat, but may help with a little less
subsidence for a slight uptick in convective coverage during the
diurnal cycle. Unfortunately, we`re talking 25-30 vs 15-20...which
means most of the area remains dry. Just like the current week, any
storms will probably start developing near lake and sea breeze
boundaries around midday, then propagate away from those areas.
Widespread precipitation is not expected during the workweek at this
time.

Where precipitation doesn`t occur, soil moisture will continue to
decrease, which will help daily highs remain in the mid and upper
90s to near 100 degrees. PWATs are still forecast to increase to
around 2.0" which suggests better moisture quality with more limited
mixing leading to higher surface relative humidity values. Bottom
line here is with the higher temps and higher humidity, "feels like"
temps will remain close to upper end of heat advisory or perhaps
warning criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR through this taf cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Benign marine conditions will continue through the forecast period
with high pressure mostly being in control. Isolated nightly storms
will be possible mainly toward sunrise. Overall, winds should remain
mostly southerly at or less than 10 knots outside any storms.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-
     089>100.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE