384
FXUS64 KLIX 171129
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
629 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Convection in association with Invest 93L will continue to develop
and move through the region through the short term period off and
on. Continued the flood watch as is with still on average 1 to 3
inches of rainfall expected, especially along and south of I10/12.
That said, locally higher amounts will be possible, especially in
training or backbuilding cells.

The surface low, now situated south of Pensacola, FLA will continue
to move west and likely end up in southeast Louisiana sometime later
this afternoon and evening. Overall, the timing it has to do much in
terms of development is limited. Not impossible for a weak TC to
develop, however, going into this evening the overall look is not
impressive to say the least. For now regardless, as advertised the
impacts if it were a named system or not would be the same, which is
hydro related.

As the surface low continues moving westward, onshore flow will
develop. Given the proximity of the tropical disturbance (likely
downstream by early Friday...but still on the moist side of the
flow) continued the enhanced POPs for diurnally driven convection
respectively. Good news is there is no need for heat products
through the remainder of the short term obviously because of the
higher rain chances and cloud cover. Although, it`s still going to
be very humid and overnights will be on the warmer side. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Ridging will begin to spread westward once again by the weekend. A
somewhat robust H5 ridge sets up over Florida and eventually
retrogrades over the Gulf. This pattern will result in lower rain
chances and high temperatures. Low level flow will remain light and
southerly, which will keep some low level moisture maintenance
intact, albeit weak. This will more than likely lead to another
round of heat headlines this weekend.

Going into the next workweek, the ridge quickly moves off to the
west and north repositioning over the central plains. This will
allow a mid level weakness to develop over the eastern coast and
perhaps once again an uptick in diurnally driven convection (at
least higher rain chances) than we are advertising over the weekend
with the ridge overhead.

Toward the end of the period...well...the skeletal remains of invest
93L (or at least in part) may rotate around into the western
Atlantic again and perhaps again into the northeastern Gulf. Will
need to monitor as it looks very similar to current near term
happenings. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Main issue this morning and throughout the day will be waves of
showers and thunderstorms that will be moving through the area in
association with a weak and broad area of low pressure south of
the Mississippi coast. The main issue will be lowering of
ceilings and visibilities as the bands of convection move through.
Will need to handle things with amendments at times due to varying
shower and thunderstorm activity. Winds will generally not be an
issue outside of the convection but could become slightly elevated
as the low continues to move closer to the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Winds and seas will uptick just a bit as the tropical disturbance
continues to move west toward our waters today. Cautionary headlines
may be necessary later this afternoon and tonight as onshore flow
increases on the eastern periphery of this feature. Expect higher
winds and seas locally in and around convection for both gulf waters
and tidal lakes. Going into the weekend, high pressure will mostly
be in control with a return of more benign marine conditions.
(Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  74  88  72 /  80  30  90  20
BTR  89  76  87  75 /  90  50  90  30
ASD  87  74  88  75 /  80  50  90  20
MSY  88  78  89  78 /  90  60  90  20
GPT  88  77  88  77 /  90  60  90  30
PQL  88  75  89  76 /  80  70  90  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through late Friday night for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
     056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch through late Friday night for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$