471
FXUS64 KLIX 271041
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
541 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 529 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast
  mainly during the afternoon hours today and Friday. A few
  storms could become strong both days. The main threat from any
  severe storms will be damaging wind gusts. Frequent lightning
  and periods of heavy rain will also be possible from these
  storms. Stay weather aware and remember when thunder roars, go
  indoors.

- The increase in rain chances and cloud cover will help limit
  heat threats, however, heat index values may still approach
  advisory criteria before thunderstorms develop by early
  afternoon. Those with outdoor plans should continue to take
  precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Stay hydrated and
  take breaks in the shade or air conditioning if possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 529 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Have adjusted PoP grids on a couple of occasions this morning.
Convective complex moving southeastward across the CWA, and about
to reach Lake Pontchartrain. Instantaneous rainfall rates of 4-6
inches per hour have been common, but fortunately in most places
it hasn`t rained hard for nearly that long. Still enough to cause
rush hour issues with the heaviest storms. Mesoscale models aren`t
quite as bullish on redevelopment this afternoon as earlier runs
were, but won`t dry things out completely quite yet.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Upper ridging continued to be centered near the Four Corners area
during the evening with a deep upper trough to the east of the
ridge extending from Lake Huron to Florida. A shortwave moving
toward the base of the trough was over Arkansas during the
evening.

Locally, there was a small area of thunderstorms between
Hattiesburg and Gulfport that was sagging southward, and will
reach Interstate 10 in the next 2 hours. A more extensive area of
storms was noted near Interstate 20, also sinking southward. The
storms near Interstate 20 are likely to make it into southwest
Mississippi around 4 AM CDT with heavy rain and brief gusty winds.
Ahead of the storms, temperatures were in the upper 70s to mid
80s at midnight CDT.

Main forecast question this morning is how far southward will the
convection near Interstate 20 make it? Some of the mesoscale
models dissipate this area of convection by mid morning, while
others (like the FV3) drive it into the coastal waters. The
forecast scenario we`ll go with has the early morning convection
running out of energy and real estate around mid-morning, with
regeneration by mid afternoon. This batch will make it into early
evening before dissipating.

Precipitable water values diminish somewhat for the weekend, but
still remain near the 75th percentile (1.95). That will be
sufficient for at least scattered thunderstorms each day, mainly
during the heat of the day, as the troughing retreats far enough
west to temporarily get the local area back to what seems to be
the prevailing pattern this season, where the local area is stuck
in the weakness between 2 ridges.

With the multiple rounds of precipitation expected today, high
temperatures probably won`t get out of the 80s, although its going
to be pretty humid. Saturday will probably be the warmest of the
set, as moisture levels will be at a moderate level, getting into
the lower 90s. Overnight lows will be 3 to 5 degrees above normal,
mainly middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

As we move into the extended portion of the forecast the pattern
will begin to shift. The weak troughing over the southeastern CONUS
into the north-central Gulf will get squeezed as ridging to our west
and northwest builds east. This will lead to a weak cut-off mid lvl
low remaining in place over the northern Gulf late Sunday which will
then slowly drift west-southwest into the western Gulf by Tuesday
night. There will be ample moisture to work with and thus we will
likely see diurnal convection each day.

At the sfc broad and weak high pressure will be centered well off to
the east-northeast leaving a rather weak pressure gradient in place.
This will also lead to generally weak southeast flow however winds
will be somewhat dictated by diurnal shifts as well especially
closer to the coast where the southeast winds will likely be a
little enhanced from the late morning through the afternoon hours.
Winds in the low levels will also be mostly light and out of the
southeast or light and variable. With winds becoming more
southeasterly from the sfc to at least h85 each day by late morning
the seabreeze will not have much of a problem penetrating well
inland through the afternoon. Combine that with more than sufficient
moisture and broad weak low aloft afternoon showers and
thunderstorms look like a pretty good bet. Now at any one point in
the afternoon we probably won`t have any more than scattered
coverage but PoPs especially the southern half of the CWA will be
around 60 possibly 70% a few afternoons. These will be more of the
typical Summer type afternoon thunderstorm with maybe a few strong
storms possible but the biggest issues from any of these storms will
be cloud to ground lightning and brief locally heavy rain.

Temperature wise we will end the weekend and begin the new work week
with near normal to slightly above normal temps but by mid week it
looks like we may start to warm back up. As the low moves farther to
the west the ridge will begin to build back in over the area. With
that we will see the rain chances start to fall as suppression
increases across the region. By Wednesday we may be back into the
mid 90s across the northern 3rd/half of the CWA. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

SHRA/TSRA moving across the terminals at a pretty good clip for
now, and may be able to drop TSRA out of at least the KMCB and
KBTR forecasts in the near term. Still a question of whether we
get redevelopment this afternoon, as we`ll need to get some
sunshine to destabilize things again. If we do, it`ll be mid to
late afternoon. Will keep most previous trends going for one more
package.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Surface high pressure over the Gulf will maintain a generally
weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak and
variable winds around 5 to 10 knots and varying between southerly
and westerly will predominate through the week. Scattered
thunderstorms will remain possible every day with winds and waves
higher in and near this activity.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
UPDATE...RW