Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
852 FXUS64 KLIX 311911 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 211 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The stalled front that has been draped just off of the SE LA coast continues to slowly move south farther into the Gulf today as the upper-level trough axis swings southward through the Mid-Atlantic region. This will only help to reinforce drier continental air behind it from the surface to 700mb. Because of this, moisture will be below the climatological median for this time of year for most of the area. This dry air and overall subsidence will help suppress rain chances on land today and keep temps bearable as we remain a few degrees below average for this time of year. However, along and south of the boundary will continue to see scattered convection throughout the day today where the moisture profiles are more favorable. This mainly includes the immediate SE LA coast and its adjacent marine areas. The mid-level moisture gradient looks to stay along the coast tomorrow as we still have a more westerly component to the upper- level flow as the center of the trough over the Northeast US meanders and pivots. This will once again create a focus for convection right along and just south of that boundary. Therefore, only expecting scattered coastal convection tomorrow along that boundary and dry conditions north of it. We will once again be slightly below average in terms of temperatures && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 By Tuesday, the upper-level trough that was meandering across the Mid-Atlantic looks to finally get overtaken by a stronger trough coming down across the Northern Plains. This will start to do a couple of things that counteract each other. This will help throw impulses down across the mid and lower MS River Valley while reinforcing drier mid-level air. The main issue is the timing of these impulses throughout the middle to end of next week. But regardless, the moisture content seems to be at or below the 25th percentile for this time of year, so convection will be hard to come by. The impulses could help to overcome this and give scattered showers/storms, but it would be isolated at best. So, expect mostly dry conditions throughout the workweek as the northwesterly flow continues to pump dry air into the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The only impact in this forecast period is scattered convection along the SE LA coast (mainly effecting HUM) associated with a stalled front. Expect that activity to decay as the sun goes down. After that, VFR conditions and very minimal impacts, if any, are expected at all terminals this forecast cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Daily thunderstorms remain the main issue over the marine areas as a stalled front lingers near the coastal waters. Expect brief bursts of stronger winds and higher waves in and near storms. The boundary pushes farther into the Gulf today and Monday, with offshore flow setting in behind it and holding through midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 67 88 68 88 / 0 10 10 30 BTR 70 90 71 91 / 10 10 10 20 ASD 68 88 69 88 / 0 10 10 20 MSY 76 90 75 91 / 0 20 10 30 GPT 71 87 70 88 / 0 20 10 20 PQL 68 88 68 88 / 0 10 10 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM....JZ AVIATION...JZ MARINE...JZ