761
FXUS64 KLIX 140445
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1145 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The MCS that developed this morning across central LA that caused
flash flooding near Lafayette congealed and developed a deep cold
pool that aided in a quick progression east across the area
through midday today. This has dramatically altered the
temperature forecast for today as the prior forecast hinged on a
weaker cold pool from this MCS that kept progression slower and
allowed for additional storm development ahead of this boundary
into the afternoon hours. Temperatures are predominantly in the
mid 70s to low 80s areawide with broken mid-upper cloud cover and
as such the forecast has adjust high temperatures down. Some
gradually clearing is anticipated in the coming hours on the west
edge of this MCS`s canopy which will help with some rebound in
temperatures later this afternoon, but redevelopment of
thunderstorms is less likely than advertised in the prior forecast
package. This rain-cooled air has stabilized most of the area, and
any attempts for storms to redevelop would likely be focused
across the SW CWA near the Atchafalaya basin where recovery is
already beginning.

Another muggy night tonight with rain-saturated soils and calm
winds helping to saturate the boundary layer quicker than previous
nights. If skies clear sufficiently, patchy fog will be possible
mainly over southwest MS and adjancent Florida Parishes north of
I-12. SREF/HREF guidance provides a low chance (20%) of dense fog
development tonight so a short-fused dense fog advisory could be
possible if observations begin to indicate a quicker, more dense
onset of fog than currently forecast.

A more typical summer morning is on tap for Saturday with mostly
clear skies that will heat us up quickly into midday and get
stronger temperature gradients between land and water to get sea
and lake breezes started up by noon. Increasing shower and
thunderstorms are likely by midday and will gradually move inland
into the afternoon hours. DCAPE values of 900-1200 j/kg and PWATs
greater than 1.8" via forecast model soundings for Saturday
afternoon indicate that any strong storm will carry the potential
for damaging winds up to 50 to 60 mph and very high rainfall rates
in excess of 3" per hour. 0-3km lapse rates will also exceed 8
C/km with weaker mid-level lapse rates which would be sufficient
for lofting small hail cores that can assist in downward transport
of strong winds potentially via wet microbursts. These showers and
storms will gradually wane into the evening hours as daytime
heating dissipates and land areas stabilize.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The weak shortwave trough that has been stuck over the south
central CONUS for days now will continue to gradually lift
northeast into the OH River Valley this weekend, but these
lingering lower heights relative surrounding mid-upper ridging
surrounding it will still be sufficient for afternoon
thunderstorms along the lake and sea breezes each day heading into
next week. A lot of rinse/repeat forecasts ahead into next week with
more nuanced differences in rainfall patterns each day depending
on the preexisting convection from outside of our area as a
secondary weak shortwave trough that digs into the lower
Mississippi River Valley reinforces this blocking pattern through
midweek. There are some hints in the global model ensembles that
we finally may start to dry out and warm up by the end of next
week as ridging over the SW CONUS and SW Atlantic merge over the
northern Gulf Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

MVFR conditions predominate with CIGs generally in the 2000 to
2500 foot range across the area. These conditions should remain
through the night with the exception of MCB where some light fog
may develop and drop VIS to around 4SM, but the main impact will
be the CIGs. Convective activity will return tomorrow with
daytime heating and boundary formation, especially sea/lake
breezes, which is reflected in PROB30s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Light southerly flow is expected through the weekend and into next
week at 10 knots or less along the western flank of the Bermuda
High. Wind and seas will be largely benign during the forecast
period. As typical for summer, the winds east of the MS Delta
will be a touch higher each night. Winds and seas will be locally
higher during the afternoon and overnight hours with storms along
the coast each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  72  88  72 /  70  30  70  30
BTR  81  75  90  75 /  70  30  70  20
ASD  86  74  91  74 /  70  20  60  20
MSY  86  78  91  77 /  80  20  70  20
GPT  86  77  89  76 /  70  30  60  30
PQL  87  74  90  74 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...TJS