129
FXUS64 KLIX 021836
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1236 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Next system impacts the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will
  begin during the Tuesday impacting election day while a few stronger
  storms will be possible Tuesday night through early Wednesday
  with the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Through tonight, a shortwave ridge axis will continue to pass over
the region. This will keep overall rain chances at 10 percent or
less as weak subsidence aloft keeps the mid to upper levels dry
and largely stable. In the low levels, a persistent onshore flow
will continue to usher in Gulf moisture resulting in continued
strato-cumulus development beneath the mid-level inversion and
above average temperatures and dewpoints. Lows will only dip into
the mid to upper 60s, and a few a locations may only cool into the
low 70s south of I-10.

The warm and moist airmass will start to feel the influence of an
approaching shortwave trough passing through the Arklatex region
tomorrow afternoon. Favorable jet dynamics will be in place to
support a broad region of increased forcing across the forecast
area as the area finds itself beneath the entrance region of an
upper level jet streak. The trough itself will start to take on a
more negative tilt as it ejects into the Mississippi Valley
tomorrow evening into tomorrow night, but the best shear will
remain displaced well to the north of the forecast area. Bulk
shear will stay below 30 knots and helicity values will struggle
to exceed 100 m2/s2 in the lowest 3km. Additionally, overall
thermodynamic support will be lacking as mid-level lapse rates
remain below 5.5 C/KM and overall mixed layer CAPE struggles to
reach 800 J/KG. Given these limiting factors, the severe threat
will be very low for Tuesday night. One or two stronger storms may
try to form in southwest Mississippi where forcing will be
greatest, but most of the activity will be in the form of light to
moderate rain showers through the night over the forecast area.
Temperatures will remain above average with highs in the low to
mid 80s tomorrow and lows only cooling into the mid to upper 60s
ahead of an approaching front tomorrow night.

The front will sweep through the area Wednesday morning with
lingering rain showers, but improving conditions are expected by
the afternoon hours as increasing negative vorticity and dry air
advection takes hold. Weak cold air advection will also take place
behind the front, and this will allow temperatures to cool closer
to average from Wednesday night through Thursday night. Lows will
dip into the 50s inland and low 60s south of the lake each night
and highs will climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Looking up stream a positively tilted H5 trough will be sliding
across the central plains generally toward our region. At the
surface a weak frontal boundary will drop southward toward our area.
Globals show just enough upper level support for some shower
development Friday, but vary on amounts with the GFS a bit more
bullish (albeit still lower end) in terms of QPF signal. For now
POPs are going to be on the lower side, but some upward trend in
subsequent forecasts will be possible. As the front moves through
the airmass behind the front does cool us back down to around
average. A progressive upper level pattern develops briefly on
Saturday before a strong upper level trough digs southward. This one
will actually contain a more Canadian airmass meaning behind the
next front late in the weekend expect temperatures to be cooler than
the prior front. Given the lack of a meaningful return flow, expect
a mostly dry frontal passage, at least as it would appear now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A broken deck of cloud cover generally ranging between 1500 and
2500 feet will remain in place at nearly all of the terminals
through the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning. This cloud
deck is being fed by a persistent east-southeast wind of 10 to 15
knots this afternoon that will relax slightly to 5 to 10 knots
during the overnight hours. There may be some very minor
visibility restrictions of around 5 miles that develop at MCB and
HDC around 12z tomorrow, largely tied to the stratus build down
to around 500 to 900 feet that is expected to occur as winds fall
to 5 knots or less at these specific terminals. The ceilings will
gradually lift after 14z at these terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Continued gusty easterly winds of 15 to 20 knots will persist
into tonight over the waters resulting in continued rough seas.
Small craft advisories remain in effect through this evening due to
these conditions.  Winds should gradually weaken and become more
southeasterly Tuesday as the pressure gradient relaxes ahead of the
approaching cold front. Given the expected flattening of the upper-
level trough aloft and limited support behind the frontal boundary,
a significant post-frontal wind surge does not appear likely. Winds
should shift offshore Wednesday into Thursday, generally remaining
light to moderate as surface high pressure builds into the region.
This will also allow seas to gradually subside. Showers will be
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday before drier conditions
return. Another round of showers will also move through the waters
Friday as a reinforcing cold front sweeps through the region.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ532-
     534>536-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ534>536-
     551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....RF
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG