Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
716 FXUS64 KLIX 101841 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 141 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 141 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again each day, but as the week continues storms will become harder to come by as coverage decreases with high pressure moving into the region. Storm motion will be slow so with any thunderstorm brief heavy rain is possible, cloud-to-ground lightning, and higher wind gusts. - Heat becomes a bigger concern as the week wears on and we could see heat index readings in isolated locations touch heat advisory thresholds at times through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday night) Issued at 141 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 The short term can be characterized as typical summer. At least initially. Going into the second half of the short term just uncomfortable. A loft, we will be watching as an upper level ridge slide west over the northern Gulf and into our region by midweek. As it spreads west it also will gradually strengthen leading to quite a bit of subsidence. There will still be a very low shot at rain where the best surface convergence resides along mesoscale boundaries, but with the suppression and drying aloft this will be very uncommon after today. As heights and thicknesses increase and rain chances decrease, temperatures are forecast to soar into the middle 90s by midweek and perhaps upper 90s toward the end of the period. Winds will be mostly light and southerly. This will help maintain low level moisture for slightly higher RH values (although some mixing will help some inland). Feels like temperatures early on will climb to around 105 to 107 for most and by midweek we should break the 108F threshold, which is the threshold that requires Heat Advisories. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Sunday night) Issued at 141 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 A hot pattern will continue to exist to start the long term period. A loft, an H5 596dam heat bubble will reside over southwest Alabama. This feature will continue to promote the suppression of daily convection with little relief from the heat. As well as helping temperatures rise above average. At the surface, winds will remain light and southerly with daily sea/lake breezes that may help somewhat, but will keep relative humidity values on the higher-end. Going further into the weekend the upper ridge spreads westward over Arkansas and continues to strengthen to a 600dam ridge again promoting continued hot conditions. That said, we will be introducing POPs by late Saturday and Sunday as globals are a bit more aggressive with the QPF signal over the central Gulf with the best potential being west of the I55 corridor or as far from the center of that heat bubble as possible. There will be a slight uptick in moisture this weekend, which could lead to the need for additional heat headlines basically through much if not all of the long term during the afternoon hours. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Isolated showers and storms are ongoing across the area this afternoon. Mostly covered with PROBs, but TEMPOs were also used where coverage/chances are a bit higher. Convection should decrease by sunset with mostly VFR conditions expected outside of maybe some lower VIS for MCB around sunrise. Toward the end of the cycle more isolated showers and storms will be possible as the summertime pattern continues. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 141 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Through the workweek high pressure will dominate the coastal waters, centered just off to the east while the ridge axis basically stretches west across the Gulf Coast. This will lead to rather light winds through the forecast with winds over the near shore waters dictated by diurnal shifts with a sea breeze during the afternoon or a land breeze at night. The outer waters will also see light winds through the forecast, but winds will likely remain southerly to southeasterly. Thunderstorms will be possible each day; however, coverage will likely be more isolated to widely scattered. That said, with any thunderstorm activity expect lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds, and a few waterspouts. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF