Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
232 FXUS64 KLIX 082322 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 622 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 620 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 - Starting the workweek with overall less coverage in daily afternoon rain/storm chances. However, rain chances pick up later in the week into the weekend. - Afternoon max heat indicies reach into the 100-105F range late week and into the weekend. - Further slow easing of tide levels is expected over the next few days. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 Starting off with late this morning taking a look at the upper- levels, we`ve entered a bit of a broad ridging pattern taking over most of the southern and SE US. This has led to a steady decrease in available lift/dynamic forcing for enhanced shower/storm coverage like we`ve seen the past several days, turning back to a more summertime-like diurnally driven isolated storm risk. GOES-16 satellite trends, as mentioned in the morning update highlights a few patchy mid/upper-level clouds coinciding with a tongue of H5-H3 moisture advecting from south Texas to the SE US. Coverage is thin/broken up enough to not impact Cu development as we`re continuing to see. Proximity soundings illustrate what`s going on outside the window well, showing an evident dry slug/compressional warming in the low- levels, and noticeable positive buoyancy between the bottom of this inversion and LCL supporting shallow Cu development. 12Z HRRR came in a bit more with coverage later today, which supports the morning uptick in PoP`s that will remain in place today as we should see diurnally- supported shallow showers/storms primarily across the Atchafalaya Basin to the Florida Parishes/SW MS. Again, not a whole lot of coverage (15% currently) but could see a passing shower or storm at times. Quiet tonight, then rinse/repeat for tomorrow. However, could see a rather evident lake/seabreeze boundary, skewed to the west some due to SE winds. This typically sets up the zone of greatest confluence from the Lake Pontchartrain/Maurepas lakebreeze pressing SW from the lakes and coastal SE LA seabreeze racing north to support a zone of greatest scattered shower/storm chances along the MS river parishes or Atchafalaya Basin, in a broader sense areas west of I-55. Same story for Thursday. As for temps all days, we`ll see highs uptick a little bit each day, likely reaching the low 90`s for many areas Wed and Thu as we become settled under the center of a southern US 588dm ridge. No adjustments were needed for highs as deterministic values are coming in reasonable. KLG && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 Late-week, indications are pointing at the dominant ridge to steadily break down, revealing an uptick in mainly late morning through evening scattered rain/storm chances. Don`t want to get into the weeds this far out with details, but there are hints of a strong upper-level trough diving into the northern/central plains, breaking down the ridge and providing NW flow, or even a front eventually into the northern Gulf coast states. This could lead to a few MCS`s into SE US or coastal areas, just remains to be seen. KLG && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 Mostly VFR conditions through the cycle. BTR and MCB may see some reduced VIS around sunrise Tuesday. Otherwise, convective potential will be limited. Winds will remain mostly light and variable. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 High pressure anchored off the mid-atlantic coastline will continue to provide onshore, primarily weak SE flow which will promote weak/calm waves seas through the rest of the week. Scattered rain/storm chances will increase later in the week into the weekend. Winds and seas will be higher in and near any thunderstorm activity that does occur. KLG && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KLG LONG TERM....KLG AVIATION...RDF MARINE...KLG