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FXUS64 KLIX 100658
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
158 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 154 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
  again today but as the week continues storms will become harder
  to come by with isolated coverage possibly the best we see.
  Storm motion will be slow so with any thunderstorm brief heavy
  rain is possible, cloud to ground lightning, and higher wind
  gusts.

- Heat becomes a bigger concern as the week wears on but we could
  see heat index readings in isolated locations touch the upper
  100s this afternoon. Heat index values between 105 and 110 look
  a little more common Tuesday and through the work week and a
  few Heat Advisories will likely be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Even with that weak wave moving in yesterday convection was not
quite as high in coverage as expected and this may be due to the
ridge to our east nudging in a little faster than previously
thought. This is increasing the mid lvl hghts across the region and
also increasing the mid lvl temps. Last nights sndg had an H5 temp
of -5.3C which is already an increase of 1.5C from Friday evenings
flight. This is leading to more suppression and a shallow lapse rate
which is hurting convection. The problem is that this doesn`t get
better over the next 48 hours and will actually get progressively
worse by Wednesday and through the rest of the work week.

As for today there is still a chance of scattered storms as we still
have a band of deeper moisture draped across the northwestern and
notrh-centrla Gulf coast. GOES19 TPW still shows PWs around 2" which
agrees with last nights sndg. With that much moisture in place it
will just be a matter of time before we get a few storms to develop
around the midday and early afternoon hours, most likely along the
sea and lake breeze. Once a few storms develop any additional
convection will be dictated by outflow boundaries and especially
where any boundaries collide. Storms like the last few days will
come to an end after sun down.

Tuesday and even more so Wednesday and Thursday we will start to see
storm coverage slack off to where maybe only one or two storms
develop Wednesday and the possibility that we will be rain free by
the end of the week. As we have been mentioning the mid lvl ridge
(H5) to our east will continue to build in and is already starting
to. As mentioned earlier this will continue to increase the mid lvl
hghts and mid lvl temps both of which will suppress convection some.
By Wednesday mid lvl temps could be in the -4 to -5 range which
starts really making convection hard to come by, warmer than -4 and
you can almost completely forget about storms (almost). The other
negative aspect out there is drier air which is currently moving
into the FL Straits and over Cuba and this will start to push into
the area Wednesday. With that if you don`t see any rain today or
tomorrow it may be a little while before you see rain again and
given the quick shut down of rain over much of the area for the last
3-4 weeks we could start to see drought concerns creep up.

Other main forecast concern this week is the heat. Even today we
will be close to needing a heat advisory, mainly in the marsh areas
west and southwest of the tidal lakes. Isolated locations will
probably see heat index values touch 105-110 today but given that
the heat concerns pick up through the week we decided to hold off on
any heat advisory for today given that it would be such a small area
of concern that would barely hit criteria and with the likelihood
that we will need heat headlines later this week we would rather not
make everyone numb to the concern yet especially as conditions could
be far worse later this week and into the weekend. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

By Thursday night, the upper high will be centered pretty much right
over the local area, with the western lobe of the Bermuda surface
high pressure over the eastern Gulf. The ridging will drift a bit
northward at the end of the week and next weekend. The upper ridge
will be centered near Memphis by Sunday, with the surface high near
Southwest Pass.

During most of the long term period, precipitable water values are
expected to be near or below the 25th percentile, if the GFS is any
indication (1.6 inches). That will probably limit any convection to
isolated coverage during max heating, primarily along lake or sea
breeze boundaries. Not out of the question that things stay
completely dry next weekend. Some indications that pattern continues
well into the following week.

Highs in the mid 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s looks to be a
good starting point. With very little spread between the GFS and
ECMWF, the NBM temperatures should be fairly representative,
although there has been some tendency for the NBM to be a bit on the
warm side on highs. /RW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

All is quiet over the area at this time and not anticipating any
concerns for terminals through at least mid morning with VFR
conditions expected. Isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA possible
again this afternoon and will continue to carry PROB30 at all
terminals, but that might be overstating areal coverage. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Through the work week high pressure will dominate the coastal
waters, centered just off to the east while the ridge axis basically
stretches west across the Gulf coast. This will lead to rather light
winds through the forecast with winds over the near shore waters
dictated by diurnal shifts; seabreeze during the middle of the day
and afternoon while the land breeze takes over overnight. The outer
waters will also see light winds through the forecast but winds will
likely remain southerly to southeasterly. Thunderstorm will be
possible each day but coverage will likely be more isolated to
widely scattered however with any thunderstorm expected lightning,
heavy rain, gusty winds, and of course a few waterspouts. /CAB/

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB