Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
065 FXUS64 KLIX 111811 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1211 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1143 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 - Warming trend this week. Above normal temperatures by Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 The primary forecast challenge through Thursday night is the threat of radiation fog developing on Wednesday and Thursday nights as low level moisture gradually increases on the back of a persistent light southerly wind. The combination of strong radiational cooling and increasing dewpoints will support some patchy fog development over more inland portions of the CWA, particularly river drainages where cooling will be greatest both tomorrow night and Thursday night. However, there is lower confidence that dense fog will develop as the lingering drier air aloft could disrupt a full boundary layer decoupling and limit the intensity of the fog. Otherwise, there are no significant forecast concerns as temperatures quickly modify back to near and even slightly above normal readings on Wednesday and Thursday. The temperature spread between the various models is fairly low, but I did use NBM 50th percentile values for the overnight lows as the airmass still remains somewhat dry through Thursday night. This drops the temperatures a couple of degrees below the deterministic NBM output. Daytime highs will easily climb into the 70s both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons as the thermal trough over the area today pulls to the east of the region. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 A deep layer mid to upper level longwave ridge will build over the area on Friday and Saturday. This ridging will reinforce the very dry and stable airmass in place across the region, and will also allow for further warming of the temperatures due to the increasing subsidence aloft. There may be some scattered fair weather cumulus development during the afternoon hours on Friday and Saturday, but the strong mid-level capping inversion that is forecast to be in place will keep any shower activity from forming. As a result, PoP has been removed from the forecast through Saturday night. Temperatures will be well above normal with readings climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s each afternoon. Increasing dewpoints into the upper 50s and lower 60s will also push overnight lows well above average. Although there will be plenty of low level moisture to work with, the boundary layer winds will become less conducive for fog development as we move into the weekend. However, some low stratus could form at the base of an elevated temperature inversion each morning through Sunday. Any early morning cloud cover will quickly mix out into the scattered cumulus field by the late morning hours. The model spread increases and overall forecast confidence lowers considerably as we move into Sunday and Monday. All of the medium range guidance continues to slow the progression of a southern stream vorticity max ejecting out of the Four Corners, and there are some models that start to shear out the system as it moves into the Plains. The end result is a very large spread in rain and temperature probabilities as we move into early next week. The southern stream system is still offshore of the CONUS, and the models will begin to perform better as the system approaches the west coast over the next day or two. Given the large degree of spread in the various solutions, have opted to stick with the NBM solution for Sunday and Monday. This keeps temperatures a good 10 degrees above average through Monday and also introduces a 20 to 30 percent rain chance over the western half of the CWA each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 A very dry and stable high pressure system over the area will keep prevailing VFR conditions in place at all of the terminals through the entire forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 Overall, a very benign stretch of weather is expected through the weekend across all of the coastal waters as a broad surface high pressure system remains parked over the northern and eastern Gulf. A prevailing light southerly wind of 5 to 10 knots is expected through Friday. The southerly flow should increase to 10 to 15 knots over the weekend, but further strengthening to above 15 knots is not anticipated. Seas will also remain very calm this week at 2 feet or less. Over the weekend, seas will likely increase to 2 to 3 feet in the far outer waters in response to the slightly stronger gradient flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 58 39 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 60 42 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 59 37 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 61 47 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 58 42 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 57 36 72 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...PG MARINE...PG