850
FXUS64 KLIX 161843
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
143 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Upper trough and weak surface low over the eastern Gulf off of the
Florida Panhandle this afternoon. Most of the associated
convection remains offshore, although a few showers have developed
in the last hour near the Mississippi-Alabama border. Temperatures
were in the upper 80s and lower 90s with heat index values around
105 degrees.

The main concern through Thursday night will be the potential for
heavy rainfall, especially along and south of the Interstate 10
corridor. While the morning soundings around the area indicated
precipitable water values were near 1.8 inches (near climo), as
the trough moves westward, those values are expected to increase
to 2.2 to 2.5 inches tomorrow, which will be above the 90th
percentile. Anything close to 2.5 inches will be at the top end of
the chart.

At this point, significant development of the low pressure isn`t
expected, but can`t be entirely ruled out. The upper trough axis
is expected to track westward along the coast tonight and
Thursday, and be over western Louisiana by Thursday evening.
Clusters of showers and storms will move across the area, mainly
late tonight and during the day Thursday. While it won`t rain all
the time over the next 36 hours, the heaviest cells will certainly
be capable of producing 2 to 3 inches of rain in an hour, and 3 to
6 inches by Friday morning, especially south of I-10, with
isolated higher amounts likely. If that falls in the wrong
places, notably urban areas with poor drainage, flash flooding is
certainly possible, and will hold the Flood Watch in place as
currently depicted.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

With the upper trough to the west of us on Friday, the threat for
organized heavy rainfall may be somewhat diminished, but
precipitable water values will still remain around 2 inches, and
cell movements are expected to be slower. That means the potential
for flooding continues on Friday and Friday evening. Some
indications that Saturday could remain at risk before ridging
builds back into the area. Beyond Saturday, we`ll be back in a
more "normal" summer convective pattern with isolated to
scattered afternoon convection, with temperatures reaching the mid
90s before convective development cuts off heating. If we reach
mid 90s, with the ground fairly wet, that would indicate that Heat
Advisories may be necessary from Sunday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions currently in place. Any convective threat this
afternoon will primarily be at terminals south of Interstate 10,
excluding KBTR and KMCB. Lower conditions expected toward sunrise
Thursday as upper trough approaches, with MVFR to IFR conditions
likely. Expect all terminals to have at least occasional flight
interruptions during the day tomorrow. Perhaps some improvement
beyond sunset tomorrow evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Still much uncertainty whether any tropical development occurs
with the trough and surface low in the eastern Gulf. Current
expectation is that sustained winds remain below 20 knots, which
would mean only Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines may be
needed tomorrow afternoon/evening into the first half of Friday.
The more significant threat would be thunderstorms producing
locally higher winds/seas. Coastal flooding is currently not
expected to be an issue, as winds aren`t sufficient to bring tides
up more than a foot or so, and we are just exiting the neap
portion of the cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  90  74  88 /  30  80  30  90
BTR  77  90  76  88 /  40  90  50  90
ASD  74  88  74  88 /  70  90  60  90
MSY  78  88  78  90 /  70  90  60  90
GPT  75  89  77  88 /  80  90  70  90
PQL  74  89  75  88 /  80  80  70  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-057-058-071-081>086.

     Flood Watch through late Friday night for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
     056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071.

     Flood Watch through late Friday night for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW