Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
272 FXUS64 KLIX 150231 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 931 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 922 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 - The potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding is diminishing across the area. - A drier pattern is expected during the latter half of this week through at least the weekend. The primary concern will shift toward increasing heat, with heat indices potentially approaching advisory criteria Friday onward. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday night) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 A strong (599 dm) upper ridge was centered over the northern Mississippi River Valley this morning. A trough extended from Atlanta to Dallas. At the surface, a stationary front extended from Birmingham to Vicksburg to San Antonio. Precipitation was sinking to the south of Interstate 10 this morning, and was mainly off the Louisiana coast at noon. Skies were mostly cloudy with temperatures generally in the 70s. The upper trough will shift westward to near El Paso by Thursday morning, and remain there through Friday night. Shortwave ridging will build across the area for Thursday and Friday. The GFS isn`t quite as far westward with these features as the ECMWF, but they are fairly close. A weak mid level circulation is noticeably over the eastern Gulf by Saturday. Precipitation continues to sink southward, and the question at this point is whether it will remain off the coast this afternoon. Most precipitation is likely to dissipate by sunset in any case. Forecast soundings are noticeably drier on Wednesday, with precipitable water values falling to between the 25th and 50th percentile (near 1.6 inches). These moisture levels are expected to hang around through Friday night. This won`t entirely preclude thunderstorm development, but areal coverage should be much less than the last several days. High temperatures should be around 90 tomorrow, and 90 to 95 Thursday. Highs Friday should generally be in the middle 90s. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. Isolated areas around Lake Pontchartrain and along the Mississippi coast may need Heat Advisories by Friday as indices reach near the 108 Advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Monday night) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 High pressure is expected to control the weather across much of the area this weekend and into early next week. Looking at moisture levels, most of the area will remain between the 25th and 50th percentile, with the exception of the Mississippi coast, which will be between the 50th and 75th percentile (around 1.8 inches). Most probable result will be isolated thunderstorms developing on the sea breeze boundary over the Mississippi coast, and little or no precipitation elsewhere. High temperatures are expected in the mid 90 or perhaps even a few upper 90s. May need heat advisories on a few days. Overnight lows mainly in the 70s, but New Orleans area could get stuck above 80. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 922 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 All terminals are currently in VFR and look likely to remain that way through the night. Not anticipating much in the way of convection tomorrow for much of the area north of I-10 but HUM, MSY, and NEW probably have the best chance of seeing a few TSRA around between the hours of 18z and 22/23z. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Winds will generally be 10 knots or less and direction will vary through midweek, becoming more predominantly southerly as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf late in the week. The overall gradient is relatively weak which is why winds struggle to exceed 10 knots and seas/waves mostly under a couple feet. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...CAB MARINE...RW