Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
415 FXUS64 KLIX 081617 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1117 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 - Starting the work week with overall less coverage in daily afternoon rain/storm chances. However, rain chances pick up later in the week into the weekend. - Afternoon max heat indicies reach into the 100-105F range late week and into the weekend. - Further slow easing of tide levels is expected over the next few days. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 Starting off with late this morning taking a look at the upper- levels, we`ve entered a bit of a broad ridging pattern taking over most of the southern and SE US. This has led to a steady decrease in available lift/dynamic forcing for enhanced shower/storm coverage like we`ve seen the past several days, turning back to a more summertime-like diurnally driven isolated storm risk. GOES-16 satellite trends, as mentioned in the morning update highlights a few patchy mid/upper-level clouds coinciding with a tongue of H5-H3 moisture advecting from south Texas to the SE US. Coverage is thin/broken up enough to not impact Cu development as we`re continuing to see. Proximity soundings illustrate what`s going on outside the window well, showing an evident dry slug/compressional warming in the low- levels, and noticeable positive buoyancy between the bottom of this inversion and LCL supporting shallow Cu development. 12Z HRRR came in a bit more with coverage later today, which supports the morning uptick in PoP`s that will remain in place today as we should see diurnally- supported shallow showers/storms primarily across the Atchafalaya Basin to the Florida Parishes/SW MS. Again, not a whole lot of coverage (15% currently) but could see a passing shower or storm at times. Quiet tonight, then rinse/repeat for tomorrow. However, could see a rather evident lake/seabreeze boundary, skewed to the west some due to SE winds. This typically sets up the zone of greatest confluence from the Lake Pontchartrain/Maurepas lakebreeze pressing SW from the lakes and coastal SE LA seabreeze racing north to support a zone of greatest scattered shower/storm chances along the MS river parishes or Atchafalya Basin, in a broader sense areas west of I-55. Same story for Thursday. As for temps all days, we`ll see highs uptick a little bit each day, likely reaching the low 90`s for many areas Wed and Thu as we become settled under the center of a southern US 588dm ridge. No adjustments were needed for highs as deterministic values are coming in reasonable. KLG && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 Late-week, indications are pointing at the dominant ridge to steadily break down, revealing an uptick in mainly late morning through evening scattered rain/storm chances. Don`t want to get into the weeds this far out with details, but there are hints of a strong upper-level trough diving into the northern/central plains, breaking down the ridge and providing NW flow, or even a front eventually into the northern Gulf coast states. This could lead to a few MCS`s into SE US or coastal areas, just remains to be seen. KLG && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 Primarily VFR conditions are expected for all area terminals through the forecast period. CIGs this afternoon from SCT/BKN Cu will bounce around 025-040 with times, with winds primarily light in the 06-10kt range. Could see a a few SCT RA/TSRA mainly for terminals east of I-59, but impacts will be limited with only brief/temporary VIS/CIG reductions but will be VFR outside of any of this activity. KLG && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 High pressure anchored off the mid-atlantic coastline will continue to provide onshore, primarily weak SE flow which will promote weak/calm waves seas through the rest of the week. Scattered rain/storm chances will increase later in the week into the weekend. Winds and seas will be higher in and near any thunderstorm activity that does occur. KLG && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KLG LONG TERM....KLG AVIATION...KLG MARINE...KLG