841
FXUS64 KLIX 282322
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
522 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

 - Hazardous marine conditions for much of the next 5 days.

 - Entering a wetter pattern beginning Saturday night into Sunday,
   with additional periods of rainfall, possibly heavy, Monday
   night into Tuesday, and possibly again on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Upper troughs over the St. Lawrence Valley, and over Montana/Idaho.
At least in the short term, quasi-zonal flow across the southern
third of the country. At the surface, high pressure centered near
Jackson. Only some scattered cirrus across the area this morning,
with temperatures from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

The trough to our northwest will move southeastward to Iowa by
Saturday afternoon, then to the southern Great Lakes by Sunday
night. The next trough in the series will already be in the
central Rockies at that point. Low pressure with the first trough
will be near the Iowa-Illinois border Saturday evening with a
cold front to near Shreveport, eventually moving through most or
all of our area late Saturday night and Sunday morning. High
pressure in the wake of that system will shift eastward quickly
and be over the southern Great Lakes Sunday night.

This morning`s precipitable water values around 0.25 inches is well
below the 10th percentile for late November, and doesn`t even reach
the 50th until late Saturday afternoon. Those values eventually
reach the 75th percentile Sunday morning. Instability is nearly
zero, and current QPF fields would indicate that most or all
precipitation will actually be post-frontal Saturday night and
Sunday. Not out of the question that southeastern portions of the
CWA miss out on measurable precipitation this weekend. Little to no
mention of thunder through Sunday night.

With high clouds arriving this evening, and winds gradually becoming
southeasterly, overnight lows will probably occur prior to midnight
before flattening out or rising by sunrise Saturday. Won`t mess with
highs on Saturday, as some question as to how effective filtered
sunshine will be on warming. With the frontal passage late Saturday
night and Sunday morning, areas behind the front could see little to
no warming during the day on Sunday. Could see a 15F or more range
in high temperatures from west to east on Sunday, with the
Mississippi coast on the warmer end of that range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The second trough that will be in the central Rockies Sunday will
drop into the TX/OK Panhandle Monday morning. A southern stream
shortwave in advance of that trough will be near the Texas coast. As
the Panhandle trough kicks the southern stream shortwave east and
northeast, isentropic lift will begin to develop rain during the day
Monday. Surface low pressure is expected to develop over the Gulf
during the day Monday and move rapidly northeastward. Current
indications are that most or all of the area will remain on the
cool/wet side of the low pressure track. Precipitable water values
Monday and Monday night could reach the 90th percentile (1.5
inches). With this type of pattern, one would expect a band of heavy
rainfall to the northwest of the track of the surface low, probably
in the 1 to 3 inch range, with the only question whether this occurs
over our area or just to the north and west. Again, with most of the
area in the cool sector, any threat of thunderstorms is extremely
limited. Will hold with NBM/WPC input on rainfall amounts.
Precipitation should depart quickly on Tuesday, with high pressure
moving into the area. Beyond Tuesday, medium range guidance
diverges significantly, with the ECMWF dry through Thursday. The
GFS carries another southern stream shortwave across the area on
Thursday with a significant precipitation shield, while the ECMWF
holds any precipitation off until Friday night or Saturday. The
NBM values appear to be a compromise solution with most areas dry
until the daytime hours Thursday.

With systems being fairly progressive, there`s a fair amount of
variance in guidance temperatures, with the ECMWF residing mainly on
the cooler side. The cooler guidance would have northwest portions
of the area struggling to get much above 60 degrees next week for
highs. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday morning, with a
light freeze not out of the question across the northern half of the
area. Do not plan on diverging from the NBM values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

No significant concerns for aviators into any of the area
terminals through tomorrow evening. VFR conditions will be the
rule even as overall mid and high level cloud cover increases.
Winds will remain gusty at over 12 knots from a general easterly
component at NEW through the period due to continued thermal
mixing of stronger winds aloft down to the surface over the warmer
lake waters.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Much of the next 5 days will see hazardous marine conditions, with
Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories
anticipated, especially over the open waters. We`ll need to
reinstitute advisories over the protected waters overnight
tonight. If there is a time where headlines may not be necessary,
it would be late Saturday night into Sunday, but confidence in
that occurring isn`t real high. There will be at least some threat
of thunderstorms over the open waters as low pressure moves
across at about 48 hour intervals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  37  65  48  58 /   0  10  60  70
BTR  41  70  53  63 /   0  10  60  70
ASD  39  68  54  68 /   0   0  30  50
MSY  50  71  59  71 /   0   0  30  50
GPT  43  68  56  70 /   0   0  20  40
PQL  37  67  51  72 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RW