Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
859 FXUS64 KLIX 161810 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 110 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Upper ridge over the area to keep us on the dry side over the short term. - Rain to return to the forecast this weekend as a result of increasing moisture and a front. - There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Saturday for the NW part of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Relatively dry conditions expected over the short term as an upper ridge currently centered over the ArkLaMiss States remains near the CWA. Going into the weekend, we will see it shift off to the southeast into the Gulf as a trough pushes northeastward over the western CONUS. At the surface, we have an area of high pressure currently over the Great Lakes Region, which is projected to continue pushing off southeastward. This will allow for the return of southeasterly flow tomorrow, then southerly flow will become dominant early in the weekend. Nevertheless, the short term will remain quiet as it sets up for a slightly more active long term period. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 We start off the long term slightly more active, with isolated to scattered chances for showers and storms. We have a Marginal Risk for severe storms across nearly all of our MS counties and in our LA parishes along/north of the I-10 and west of the I-55. Despite the setup in the short term, we will not really see a significant increase in PWATs on Saturday, as they will be floating at and below the 75th percentile. However, going into Sunday, we could see PWATs get to the 90th percentile and higher. This, along with a weak cold front, will be the driver for showers and storms this weekend. Past FROPA, a high pressure will quickly move into and away from the region, eventually centering itself over the deep south by early next week. We could see another weak front, along with isolated chances of showers for the remainder of the week with the lingering moisture; however, nothing significant is expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions ongoing and expected to persist for the rest of the afternoon and evening. Tonight, we could see another round of patchy to dense fog; however, model guidance is a bit more spread for exact locations. Fog looks likely to set in a few hours after midnight, then linger until it burns off after sunrise. After that, VFR conditions are expected to return.&& .MARINE... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the east and southeast today and Friday. Winds will turn more east- southeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 knots tonight and Friday in response to the departing high. Seas then also rise to 2 to 4 feet by Friday due to these stronger winds. A frontal system is expected to slide through the waters late in the weekend. Winds may briefly get into the 15 to 20 knot range Friday night into Saturday, but do not expect any prolonged periods where winds exceed 20 knots. further increase onshore winds to 15 to 20 knots Friday night. After the front moves through late on Sunday, winds will shift to the northwest, but choppy conditions will persist. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure will move east of the area today, with a continued pattern of low relative humidity and light winds. Minimum RH values will be between 35 and 45 percent north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor today, and 45 to 50 percent south of there. On Friday, minimum RH values will be about 10 percent higher than today. Moisture levels will continue to increase over the weekend ahead of a cold front that is expected to move across the area on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front late Saturday into Sunday, but most areas probably will not see much more than about one half inch of rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 61 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 20 BTR 63 88 66 88 / 0 0 0 30 ASD 61 85 65 85 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 68 88 71 88 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 66 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 10 PQL 62 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ Forecast... LCH