595
FXUS64 KLIX 190457
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1157 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Earlier convection over south Mississippi and southeast Louisiana
has dissipated. Won`t entirely rule out convection at the coast
around sunrise, but nothing imminent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Dry air aloft has helped limit the number of showers/storms today
across the region. With rain chances and coverage on the lower
side, temperatures have climbed into the 90s across most of the
CWFA this afternoon (unlike the last few days). Although more
limited coverage, storm intensity is on the mind, especially with
the dry air and microburst potential. The best potential this
afternoon for a strong wind gust or two will reside west of
I-55...although we have seen a few weak microburst signatures on
radar over the last couple of hours east.

Convection will quickly dissipate later this evening and refocus
offshore tonight and early Thursday. Watch those lower lying
shallow fog prone areas tonight once again IF they get a shower or
storm this afternoon. For now left out much of the fog potential
out of the forecast pending showers and storms.

On Thursday a pattern change begins to take shape over the region.
The upper H5 trough begins to deamplify as upper ridge begins to
take shape across the upper Gulf coast. With added subsidence
think the dry air aloft will continue to increase allowing for
even more limited coverage in storms. Adjusted POPs down a bit to
more climo peak heating POPs. If a more robust updraft does
develop in this environment, a strong wind gust or two will remain
possible. Otherwise, the main story on Thursday will be the heat
as heights and thicknesses increase across the CWFA. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Upper level ridging will remain over the region to start the long
term period. This 593dam ridge will reside over the ArkLaMiss
region into the weekend. This pattern spells hot weather for our
region with the increased in heights and thicknesses. That said,
despite the subsidence, there will be a few isolated to scattered
showers and storms around...although in a more limited nature.
Again, similar to the short term there could be a strong wind gust
or two, especially with the more robust and wider updrafts that
initiate during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be hot and
humidity values will be relatively high (hence relative humidity)
meaning heat index values will approach if not exceed heat
advisory criteria Friday and into Saturday. Even coastal locations
will experience some heat related issues especially overnight as
temperatures along the immediate Louisiana and MS Gulf Coast will
not cool much below 80F.

Going into the weekend the upper high begins to strengthen further
to a strong 598dam heat bubble over the Ohio River Valley by early
next week. This continues to be a rather hot pattern. However,
with easterly flow aloft a series of easterly waves are forecast
to move through the region enhancing our diurnal showers and
thunderstorms respectively (land vs gulf). (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

At issuance time, the main concern will be the potential for
flight restrictions at KMCB. MVFR visibilities have been occurring
there over the past few hours, but haven`t seen similar conditions
at surrounding airports. Would note that there were IFR and lower
conditions there briefly after sunrise Wednesday morning, so
there`s at least some potential that exists. MVFR ceilings will
become briefly widespread at mid-morning as cumulus field
develops, but expect cloud bases to quickly rise to or above
FL030. Expectation is for isolated SHRA/TSRA to develop around
midday or a little after, but guidance is quite varied as to how
extensive the areal coverage becomes. Will use PROB30 with most
TSRA dissipating prior to 00z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

The main impacts will be from overnight or morning convection
across the local waters where winds will become variable and
rather gusty leading to locally high seas in and around the
stronger showers and storms. Otherwise, light to moderate onshore
flow will continue to produce mostly benign marine conditions.
(Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  73  92 /  30  50  20  40
BTR  75  93  76  94 /  20  60  10  50
ASD  75  93  74  94 /  30  50  20  50
MSY  78  93  78  94 /  30  50  10  50
GPT  77  90  76  92 /  20  50  30  50
PQL  75  92  74  93 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF