Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
363 FXUS64 KLIX 251630 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1130 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours each day through the work week. A few storms could become strong to severe each day. The main threat from any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts. Frequent lightning and brief periods of very heavy rain will also be possible from these storms. Stay weather aware and remember when thunder roars, go indoors. - The increase in rain chances and cloud cover will help limit heat threats through the week, however, heat index values may still approach advisory criteria each day before thunderstorms develop by early afternoon. Those with outdoor plans should continue to take precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning if possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 Upper level ridging will persist through Friday over the area. Southerly surface winds will help to advect warm air and moisture into the region, increasing humidities. PW values will be around 2 inches for much of the area, especially toward the weekend. Generally, daily afternoon and evening scattered storms will be expected through Friday. These storms will have the potential for frequent lightning and gusty subsevere winds (40-50mph). Severe weather is not expected at this time, but strong storms are most likely Thursday. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 103-108 degree range. With increasing rain chances toward the weekend, this will keep temperatures from getting too oppressive. So, we are not expecting heat advisories for the rest of the week. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday) Issued at 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 A shortwave moves through the area this weekend and lingers over the area, enhancing rain chances for the region. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be expected Saturday and Sunday. These storms are not expected to be severe, but could have frequent lightning and gusty subsevere winds (40-50mph). But with higher PWs around 2 inches, locally heavy rainfall could be a concern for the weekend inside of any training or slow moving storms. It will be something we will be monitoring as we get closer to the weekend. There are still some uncertainties in the long range forecast, so if the pattern changes a little, it could be drier than the current foreast. We will monitor how things change over the next 1-2 days. MSW && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. TEMPO groups are in the forecast for this afternoon and early evening at most area airports for scattered storms that will lower ceilings and visibilities temporarily to MVFR conditions. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 Surface high pressure over the Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak and variable winds around 5 to 10 knots and varying between southerly and westerly will predominate through the week. Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible every day with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...MSW MARINE...MSW