370
FXUS64 KLIX 141730
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Weak troughing aloft will keep us in a somewhat unsettled pattern
through the weekend with a fairly typical diurnal ebb and flow to
convective activity. With surface high pressure centered over the
western Atlantic, low level winds will maintain an onshore
component and continue to bring Gulf moisture into the local
area.

Ample moisture and an atmospheric profile conducive for convection
will only be waiting on a trigger - namely in the form of daytime
heating. With that said, expect isolated to scattered showers and
storms to begin popping up after sunrise, with a maximum in
coverage and intensity during the afternoon hours, and dissipation
around or shortly after sunset.

Afternoon temperatures should top out around or just over 90
degrees today and tomorrow, which is near normal for this time of
year. However, with PW running 110-120% of normal, the extra
moisture in the air will inhibit radiational cooling causing
overnight lows to remain warmer than normal, only dropping into
the mid 70s most locations, with upper 70s or even lower 80s along
the immediate SE LA coast.

Current forecast indicates maximum afternoon heat index values
peaking in the 100-105 degree range which is shy of the heat
advisory criteria, but there could be a few spots that hit 108
temporarily - especially in the wake of any isolated showers if
there isn`t sufficient outflow to cool the temperature.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

With the weak troughing/break between ridges remaining in place to
start the week, Monday through Wednesday will generally be
repeats of the weekend, with relatively high rain chances and near
to warmer than normal temperatures.

The upper pattern will flatten out by midweek, with weak ridging
building in to end the week. This should result in a return to
more typical summertime POPs by Thursday/Friday, which is lower
than what the NBM is indicating at the present time. Have made
some adjustments to trend a bit lower than the NBM POPs Thurs/Fri
given the recent high bias of the NBM in the extended and the fact
that with upper ridging building in, we really should see a
decrease in convective coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Outside of convection, VFR conditions will generally prevail
through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and storms in
the area will lead to brief periods of lower cigs and vsbys this
afternoon and have included TEMPO or PROB30 groups at each
terminal during the time of most likely impacts. Have generally
kept these mentions to MVFR conditions. While some of the heavier
showers and storms could lead to IFR or even LIFR conditions,
probability of these conditions occurring at any given site/time
are too low to mention in the TAFs at this time and will need to
be handled with short term amendments. The only other impact will
be patchy fog overnight, with the most likely location of impact
being MCB. A general repeat of today`s weather is expected
tomorrow, and future TAF packages will likely need to introduce
afternoon convective impacts which are currently beyond the end of
the TAF period except at MSY.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

High pressure centered east of the local area will keep onshore
flow in place through the period, generally 15 kts or lighter.
Expect to see daily showers and storms, with higher winds and seas
in the vicinity of this activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  88  72  89 /  20  60  30  80
BTR  73  90  74  90 /  20  60  30  90
ASD  73  91  73  90 /  20  60  30  80
MSY  77  91  77  90 /  20  60  20  90
GPT  75  88  75  89 /  30  50  30  80
PQL  74  90  74  90 /  20  50  30  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM