750
FXUS64 KLIX 312019
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
319 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Wind speeds will slack off some over the Gulf but expect them to
  remain out of the east through Monday and pick back up to 15 to
  20 knot mainly over open gulf waters. This will continue to
  create minor coastal flooding along sections of the Mississippi
  and Louisiana gulf coasts during high tide times each day
  through the weekend. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for
  locations expected to get minor coastal flooding.

- Rain has already returned to a few locations today but the
  remainder of the afternoon and thius evening there could be a
  little more storms the previously thoguht and over the
  western/northwestern portions of the outlook area. This would
  likely occur during prime Trick-or-Treating time and there could
  even be a few very isolated pockets of rainfall amounts greater
  than 3".

- Stronger system impacts the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain
  will begin during the day Tuesday impacting election day while
  strong to severe storms look possible Tuesday night through
  early Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Remnants of once Hurricane Vance had spread out
and moved across the region earlier but is now starting to speed
away to the north and east. This appears to have finally
eroded/nudged the ridge away enough to get some rain over the CWA.
The large area of rain to our west/southwest overnight and early
this morning looked like it hit a brick wall as it moved into south-
central LA. Our ridge was stubborn and just wouldn`t allow that rain
to move in but it looks like it has weakened enough finally. This
still doesn`t make the forecast any easier for the remainder of the
afternoon and tonight.

Moisture was quickly recovering with this mornings sounding showing
PW`s already around 1.6" and GOES TPW showing anywhere from 1.7 to
1.9 trying to push into the area. This is already around the top 10%
so moisture is not in question. The question is forcing, lift, and
instability. One big issue is the lack of any real focus or forcing
mechanism in the LL. Instability may be a little higher than
previously expected thanks to enough breaks in the clouds to allow a
good chunk of the area to get into the lower 80s and some possibly
in the mid 80s before we are done. A few other things that appear to
be favorable for showers and even thunderstorms to develop later
this afternoon and evening, one is the nose of the mid level jet
moving into central TX right now. It should approach the western
portions of the area around 23/00z. This doesn`t look like it is
being handled well by any of the models as they all look to be
faster with it and farther north but tracking back for a few hours
with GOES WV shows it is moving more easterly and not lifting as
much and it could provide a little more lift than what models were
thinking earlier. Second feature which has been mentioned before is
the upper jet dropping SSE into the Gulf this afternoon and this
evening. This is going to provide very favorable upper level
diffluent pattern over the area between 22Z and 06Z which will
likely lead to very efficient storms should any develop. This all
suggests that there is still a window for more numerous showers and
embedded thunderstorms some of which could actually develop heavy
rain.

That said confidence is not extremely high. Again we lack any
significant focus or forcing feature and if that mid lvl jet does
start to nudge more north or get blocked by weak ridging behind last
night and this mornings disturbance then rain will struggle however,
last few hours are starting to make me think we may have a little
more activity than previously thought. Just mentioned the
disturbance (partial remnants of Vance) are departing and models had
been showing not necessarily s/w ridging but definitely some
increase in hghts and suppression behind it but latest analysis
shows those mid lvl hghts are not rising and and even slightly
falling. This is likely what has finally led to some rain develop
over the area but with that I feel a little better about that lift
getting into the region later. With that I am anticipating a little
more activity over the northwestern/western portions of the CWA
especially around the BTR metro and the problem is that this could
occur right at prime Trick-or-Treating time. Right now it looks like
between 22z and 04z would be the time where we would see the
greatest amount of activity. Again not expecting widespread heavy
rain but there definitely could be pockets of some heavier rain
possibly greater than 3" and it now looks like that could be over
portions of SELA along and north of I-10 and into portions of swMS.
That is in stark contrast to where the earlier thoughts of the
heavier rain potential being across coastal MS but if we get this
tonight over the western 2/3rds of the CWA it would likely die off
before getting into coastal MS and then that redevelopment overnight
we previously thought was possible would likely occur tomorrow but
be farther east and southeast possibly completely out of the area
and into AL and the Gulf. Still anticipate a few showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow early but we should begin to dry out tomorrow
afternoon with ridging quickly building in.

Our next weather maker is already starting to slowly take shape but
it is a complete mess right now. By Monday it should be a rather
deep L/W trough having just crossed the Continental Divide while mid
lvl ridging dominates the region. As we heading into Election day
things start to pick back up but the forecast is definitely not
clear cut and confidence honestly has taken a bit of a hit with the
latest medium range model guidance. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Focus on the extended portion of the forecast is our system Tuesday
and into Wednesday. Models had come into much better agreement the
last few days well there is definitely some disagreements with
respect o how they handle the mid lvl pattern and the multitude of
features. This has lowered confidence quite considerably in the
forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday night. We will still see a pretty
decent system along with a front which will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area the question though is timing and
intensity. Because of that there were NO adjustments from the latest
NBM.

Models are struggling with how to handle everything with respect to
the large L/W trough off the west coast and the mid lvl jet coming
out of the east Pac and merging into it tomorrow night over the 4
corners region. Typically with that much wind and most of the mid
lvl jet downstream of the trough axis it should want to pull the
trough north/lift it out and along with that most of the dynamics.
There are some issues though. There will still be some strong mid
lvl winds upstream of the trough axis and then there may be another
strong s/w diving south out of Canada Monday night and into Tuesday.

A few different options then occur. First if that strong s/w
develops and dives south out of Canada it would cause the L/W trough
to rapidly close off and much farther north, over the north-central
CONUS. This would then leave a much weaker trough axis at the base
moving into the Lower MS Valley maybe even be held back to the
southwest leading to a slower time frame. This also has any sfc
reflection well north of the area and not much of a front moving
into the region. We would still see rain and some thunderstorms but
the risk for strong to severe storms would greatly be reduced. This
also may keep a good chunk of Election day on the drier side thanks
to a slower time frame.

Another option would be if that s/w doesn`t develop or is much
weaker as it drops south. It still looks like the trough would close
off given all of the energy that merges with it over the 4 corners
but it would be a much broader closed low and it would close off
farther to the southwest. This would lead to a much more defined and
sharper trough axis and possibly even take on a negative tilt as it
tries to move through Tuesday night. The main associated sfc low
would still be well north but there would likely be a weak wave
along the front farther south closer to the region. This scenario
would continue to lead to the threat of strong to severe storms
along with locally heavy rain. It also has more potential for
showers and maybe some embedded thunderstorms during the day which
would impact voting sites.

Right now this system is still in the Pacific and with this much
energy the models are struggling. We should hopefully begin to
tighten things up tomorrow as it finally begins to move into the
upper air network we start to get some better data and sampling.
With that like was said earlier stuck with the NBM which has high
PoPs Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night and then tapering off
during the day Wednesday. Rainfall amounts being advertised right
now is not overlie impressive but those will get adjusted as well
depending on how thins evolve. After this move through we move into
more zonal flow and and dry out the rest of the work week. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

We are strating to see some MVFR cigs develop as low clouds and even
some rain have developed. OVer the next 6 hours it may be a little
intersting as aactivity could pick up over the western half of the
CWA impacting mostly BTR between 22 and 4z. Storms would impact
other temrinals across SELA along with MCB between 23 and 5z. These
storms would bring at least MVFR cigs and vsbys but if the rain gets
heard enough vsbys could fall into IFR status for short time. Right
now we aren`t explicitly showing IFR conditions but the most likely
candidates would be BTR and MCB. Conditions would improve somehwat
overnight but still expect MVFR cigs over most of the terminals
tonight. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

into early next week as a broad surface high pressure system sits to
the north of the area. Winds will generally remain in the 10 to 15
knot range in the lakes, sounds, and bays through the weekend and
into early next. However, the open Gulf waters may see slightly
higher winds of 15 to 20 knots over this period, resulting in
choppier seas of 3 to 6 feet. Winds look like they slack off tonight
enough to keep headlines out for now but there is a good chance the
outer waters will need SCS headlines again Sunday and possibly
through Monday. This persistent east wind will also lead to some
minor coastal flooding less than one foot above ground level for
east facing shores through the remainder of the weekend. We are
already seeing some showers and a few thunderstorms which will
continue tonight and Sunday as a weak disturbance passes through.

/CAB/

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ070-
     076-078.

GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MSZ086.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB