Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
175 FXUS64 KLIX 291814 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 114 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 105 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Heat index values will approach advisory criteria mainly tomorrow (Tuesday), and mainly across the north shore and Mississippi Coast. Those with outdoor plans or work should take precautions to avoid heat-releated illnesses. Drink plenty of water, wear light-weight and loose-fitting clothing, and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning during the afternoon hours. - Scattered to numerous showers and storms return to the area beginning late Tuesday, with the highest chances on Wednesday. While the threat of widespread severe weather and heavy rain will be low, a few storms each day could become strong, producing gusty winds and/or locally heavy rain. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Upper level ridging will generally remain in place across the eastern CONUS through the short term, with the axis extending from Appalachia through eastern Texas. Expect Tuesday to be another warmer than normal day with afternoon highs forecast in the mid to upper 90s. Latest forecast calls for some pockets of heat index values in the 108-109 degree range, which is just above heat advisory criteria - mainly across portions of the north shore and Mississippi gulf coast. However, given the sparse and borderline nature, will hold off on issuing with this package. If there is any upward tick in either temperatures or dewpoints with the next forecast package, a head advisory may be necessary and this will be reevaluated with the evening/overnight update. A few very isolated showers and storms could develop Tuesday afternoon as moisture begins to increase, but overall rain chances will remain generally 10 percent or lower for most places. The main exception will be for areas near and east of the I-59 corridor where sea breeze influences may be more well developed and could fire off a few storms. The ridge will shift slightly northward as a weak easterly wave undercuts it and moves across the northern Gulf late Tuesday into Wednesday. This wave will bring increased moisture and provide a focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms to the area. The main thunderstorm threat from this activity will be potential for a few storms producing locally heavy rain. Model forecast soundings indicate precipitable water values of 2-2.25 inches which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year. This will allow for some storms to be efficient rain producers. While isolated ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas will be possible, storm motions of 15-20 mph should preclude any significant flooding threats. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 As the easterly wave departs the local area, expect a return to a typical summertime pattern to end the work week and persist through the weekend. Mid level drying as a result of high pressure becoming more dominant again will cause precipitable water to drop back to near normal for this time of year and we should see diurnally driven convection each afternoon, with initiation beginning mainly along sea/lake breeze boundaries. Additional convection will then spread along resultant outflow boundaries. As is typical in the summer months, an isolated pulse severe storm or two could develop each afternoon with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. Expect temperatures to remain at least a few degrees above normal for most locations, with morning lows in the mid to upper 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period as the area remains under the influence of weak high pressure. Expect winds to remain below 10 kts with only scattered clouds around 3-5kft. && .MARINE... Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Aside from a weak easterly wave moving through the northern Gulf midweek, the pattern will be dominated by high pressure influences. Winds will generally be 10kts or less and direction will vary through midweek, becoming more predominantly southerly as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf late in the week. Generally isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected each day, with potential for more numerous/widespread convection on Wednesday associated with the easterly wave. A few stronger storms could produce gusty winds and/or waterspouts, and locally hazardous seas during the second half of the work week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM....DM AVIATION...DM MARINE...DM