773
FXUS64 KLIX 122320
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
620 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- Expect temperatures to increase again by mid to late week.

- Some potential for fog development Wednesday morning due to
  clear skies, light winds and very wet ground.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Upper level flow has become a more dry northwesterly, which has
helped dry out portions of the mid and upper levels this
afternoon. There remains a few lower clouds, especially closer to
the surface front that moved through early today over on the MS
Gulf Coast. These too shall clear shortly. The upper level low
that moved across south MS early his morning has pushed east over
Alabama and western Florida this afternoon. Still close proximity
for an isolated shower or two closer to this feature over
southeast MS, but any rainfall will be the exception rather than
the rule at this juncture.

Going into tonight the main focus will be wet grounds, clear
skies, and calm winds. This will promote a radiational fog signal
for much of the region. Went ahead and added patchy fog areas
wide, but the best potential for more dense fog will reside over
the Florida Parishes and southwest MS. This will quickly lift
Wednesday mid to late morning or so.

Going into Wednesday and Thursday, not much of a change in the
overall pattern outside of increasing heights and thicknesses as
the ridge upstream over central Texas tries to spread eastward
toward our region. This will promote a warming trend. At the
surface, winds remain light and variable as high pressure remains
over the region. This feature, however, will begin to spread east
over Florida and the eastern Gulf by late in the weekend and early
weekend. This will induce an onshore flow (a moderate onshore
flow) leading to an increase in low level moisture. This will also
likely hold temps down a degree or two closer to the water, but
temperatures will remain higher over the interior. Additionally,
as the moderate onshore flow starts there could be a rogue
streamer shower or two by this weekend as well...although rain
chances will be on the lower-end for now. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Monday night)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Long term will start with a slight upper level pattern change as
H5 flow becomes more zonal. At the surface, we will continue to
see moderate onshore flow leading to continued streamer shower
activity, especially west of the I55 corridor at this point. Very
light, but mentionable POPs are required. Going into early next
week, it appears to be a bit on the drier side in part due to
upper level ridging (weak, but still some subsidence), so any
isolated shower activity to start the new workweek will low topped
shower activity. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Generally VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals. The only
time where it would have any reduction would be for any fog that
forms. There is still a little bit of uncertainty of how much or
how dense it would be but did include it for most terminals.
Otherwise the fog should begin to dissipate after sunrise.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Winds have become offshore around 15 knots this morning as a front
continues to progress away from the region. Wind speeds will subside
somewhat by late tonight, but may maintain an offshore component
through Thursday before becoming moderate and onshore again as high
pressure moves east of the area. (Frye)

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RDF