284
FXUS64 KLIX 152322
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
622 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected for much of the forecast. Highs in
  the mid to upper 90s with heat index values climbing into the
  lower to mid 110s. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for tomorrow
  and an excessive heat watch for Monday. Into the new week at
  least Heat Advisories are anticipated. The impact of the
  afternoon highs will be exacerbated by the slightly higher than
  normal overnight lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

High pressure continues to control our conditions, so heat remains
the impact of interest for the short term forecast period. There is
a bit of a change coming, that being that by the end of the short-
term in the mid-week timeframe the high pressure will be weakening
slightly with correspondingly slightly lower temperatures and heat
indices. Specifically, today and Monday we expect to see the daytime
temps reaching and exceeding 100F. This all results in carrying
daytime Extreme Heat Warning for today and tomorrow. An Extreme Heat
Watch has been put in place for Monday; we will re-evaluate
conditions tomorrow and issue the Warning tomorrow or perhaps can
downgrade to an Advisory.  With the anticipated slight weakening of
the high, hopefully we can manage with Heat Advisories for Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Additionally, we continue to have very low chances for
precipitation. However, we could see isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity along sea/lake breeze boundaries that provide
some upward motion. There will be a lot of heat energy present and
any one storm cell could take full advantage of this to become
strong or even marginally severe.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday night)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

From midweek on, the center of the high pressure has moved to our
west and we begin to feel the influence of a trough dropping in from
the northeast. The GFS and ECMWF handle the modeling a bit
differently with the GFS having a more slightly more agressive slug
of lower pressure and dropping temperatures down to near normal
range. The ECMWF leaves the current high pressure a bit closer to us
and hangs on to higher temps. We`ll see how the actual atmospheric
environment evolves. Rain is still looking pretty scarce, although
we do see a signal in both models for late Tuesday and early
Wednesday.  After that we get dry again, which matches with how the
longer term climate outlooks have been setting up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Afternoon TSRA near and east of KGPT has mostly dissipated. Expect
VFR conditions overnight. Chances for TSRA are a bit greater
tomorrow, and have PROB30 mentioned at almost all forecast
terminals during much of the afternoon hours. Winds not a factor
outside of TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Benign marine conditions will continue through the forecast period
with high pressure mostly being in control. Isolated nightly storms
will be possible mainly toward sunrise. Overall, winds should remain
mostly southerly at or less than 10 knots outside any storms.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-
     039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-
     089>100.

GM...None.
MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-
     077-083>088.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...DS