Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
511 FXUS64 KLIX 020552 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1152 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1124 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 - Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will be the rule for at least the next 7 to 10 days. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon during the middle to latter part of next week. While overall rain totals are forecast to be low, a few heavier storms could provide much-needed rain to localized areas. - Nightly fog development is expected through at least Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Fog will be the primary forecast concern through Wednesday night. A very warm and increasingly humid airmass will continue to dominate the region on the western periphery of a broad deep layer ridge centered over the western Atlantic. Temperatures will remain well above average through the period with highs easily climbing into the 70s and lower 80s each afternoon. Overnight lows will warm from the low to mid 50s tonight to the low to mid 60s by Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Water temperatures in the sounds, lakes, and offshore waters in the mid 60s. As dewpoints rise into the mid 60s to match the water temperature and overnight lows cool toward the dewpoint, the potential for sea fog to form offshore will increase starting as early as Monday night, but more likely by Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Light onshore flow of around 10 knots will help to transport this offshore sea fog onshore both Tuesday and Wednesday nights with the greatest impacts for locations along the coast and near the shores of the tidal lakes. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 The pattern will be little changed on Thursday from that seen earlier in the week. A continued risk of fog will be the biggest issue with conditions remaining prime for sea fog to once again impact coastal portions of the forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures will continue to rise into the 70s and lower 80s and lows will dip into the mid to upper 60s. Friday through Sunday night, there are indications that a region of enhanced forcing associated with favorable jet dynamics will become established over east Texas and Louisiana. At this time, it appears the highest theta e axis and overall deepest moisture will remain displaced to the west and north of the forecast area. However, enough instability from daytime highs climbing into the low to mid 80s over inland areas will support the development of scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms starting Friday afternoon and continuing each afternoon thereafter. The pressure gradient over the region will also tighten up, and this will allow winds to increase to 10 to 15 knots during this period. These stronger winds will help to limit more widespread fog development with overnight cloud cover being the more likely scenario. However, if winds fall slightly lower than forecast, the fog threat will persist into the weekend. Another concern given the extended period of onshore flow and the increase in winds this upcoming weekend will be a risk of some minor coastal flooding on east facing shorelines. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Some patchy radiation fog and associated low stratus has started to develop tonight as a strong surface based inversion forms. This fog will be most prevalent at BTR, HDC, ASD, and GPT with periods of IFR restrictions due to either ceilings between 200 and 500 feet or visibilities of 1 to 3 miles occurring mainly between 10z and 14z this morning. After 14z, strong daytime heating will mix out the boundary layer allowing for prevailing VFR conditions through the evening hours. At MSY, a more extensive area of fog is possible tomorrow night and this reflected with fog wording in the TAF after 08z tomorrow night. && .MARINE... Issued at 1124 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 The potential for sea fog to impact the coastal waters will increase through the week as a persistent southeast wind of 10 to 15 knots ushers in a much warmer and more humid airmass over the cooler nearshore waters. Fog conditions could start as early as tomorrow night, but they will be more likely from Tuesday night through Thursday night. This fog may turn dense at times and impact navigational operations. Outside of the fog concern, the lighter winds will keep seas in check at 4 feet or less. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...PG MARINE...PG